Post by
texasoil »
https://forums.nicoclub.com/texasoil-u1000.html
Sun Apr 18, 2004 5:51 am
Hey you guys cut it out. I just gave a 6 hr course in New Orleans where I and my co-presenter covered some of these issues-so I do qualify as an EXPERT. I don't know any more than anybody else, but I am from out of town.Facts are: U.S. gasoline prices right now are higher for 2 reasons--crude oil is nearly $1/gal, up from $0.60 last year, AND there is not enough capacity to make the new formulations required by EPA, CA, and every other 'city/region' that has a 'unique' air quality issue and wants a special formulation for THEIR region. Over 18 different fromulations for each of the 4 seasons now.
The largest product pipeline system (Colonial) now has to move 5 times (yes 5 times) the number of different products that they did 4 years ago. That costs lots of $.
Foreign refiners, who have been supplying 5-15% of the gasoline, are not able to produce the new gasoline formulations or blending components needed today--thus a 'shortage' due to our regulations. When the supplies get real tight, the price tends to go up a lot (free market you guys). Most of the gasoline sold at retail is sold by INDEPENDENTLY OWNED/OPERATED stations, not 'company operated' stations. Tight supplies they raise prices.
And, oh by the way, when the mighty dollar drops in value against the Euro, Yen, and RMB (China), OPEC purchasing power drops if they don't raise the $ price to compensate. The 20% decline in the dollar the last 12 months does not make a good argument for keeping oil price the same. A 'stable market' guess for oil price, excluding war interruption concerns like Iraq and ?, at the current demand and production levels is around $24/Bbl at the present $ value against the market basket of currencies. A little uncertainty has lots of leverage becuase people tend to build inventories--in the cars, stations, product tanks, tankers, etc. This inflates demand for a few weeks until the fear stabilizes and inventory builds stop.