World Petro Energy Overview

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VimyJ
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I heard about that report on NPR. These hybrid vehicles make the best use of available resources with the available technology at hand.

More nuclear fission is almost a certainty.


1992Q45A
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Vimy,

Your paranoid posts have grinded to nill, recently..

Hmm, could it be related to crude hitting 6 week lows??? I thought we were basing at 40, headed for 50... Laugh out loud..

Time to point out some more links, right? Hey, no way you could POSSIBLY be wrong.. Except that every oil anaylst who has access to far better research then you do, and gets paid 6 figures to make calls and decisions based on said research, has said your wrong.

Of course I'm sure you will find some more links to try to scare people, and fuel your beliefs... I told you crude couldn't hold 40 after the holidays.. It wasn't just me, it was everyone.

Crude has much further down to go. Good thing you didn't put your money where your mouth is and buy those 50 call options you had so much faith in.

LOL

1992Q45A
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I admit this thread was a little harsh.. but you are so just certain of yourself, and your OPINIONS on the oil market.. You always have to consider the other side.. I consider your side, you may even be correct.. Even if you are, we are awhile away from the prices you are talking about.. I still consider your viewpoint, and take account of your evidence.. You on the other hand, can't seem to consider the possibility that this is all fear driving up the prices, and they will return to normal sooner rather then later..

Still too early to call one way or the other, but 40 is further and further away every passing day. Any spike upwards can probably be directly correlated to terrorlst strikes/kidnappings etc.. Fear premium essentially.

texasoil
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Hey you guys cut it out. I just gave a 6 hr course in New Orleans where I and my co-presenter covered some of these issues-so I do qualify as an EXPERT. I don't know any more than anybody else, but I am from out of town.Facts are: U.S. gasoline prices right now are higher for 2 reasons--crude oil is nearly $1/gal, up from $0.60 last year, AND there is not enough capacity to make the new formulations required by EPA, CA, and every other 'city/region' that has a 'unique' air quality issue and wants a special formulation for THEIR region. Over 18 different fromulations for each of the 4 seasons now.

The largest product pipeline system (Colonial) now has to move 5 times (yes 5 times) the number of different products that they did 4 years ago. That costs lots of $.

Foreign refiners, who have been supplying 5-15% of the gasoline, are not able to produce the new gasoline formulations or blending components needed today--thus a 'shortage' due to our regulations. When the supplies get real tight, the price tends to go up a lot (free market you guys). Most of the gasoline sold at retail is sold by INDEPENDENTLY OWNED/OPERATED stations, not 'company operated' stations. Tight supplies they raise prices.

And, oh by the way, when the mighty dollar drops in value against the Euro, Yen, and RMB (China), OPEC purchasing power drops if they don't raise the $ price to compensate. The 20% decline in the dollar the last 12 months does not make a good argument for keeping oil price the same. A 'stable market' guess for oil price, excluding war interruption concerns like Iraq and ?, at the current demand and production levels is around $24/Bbl at the present $ value against the market basket of currencies. A little uncertainty has lots of leverage becuase people tend to build inventories--in the cars, stations, product tanks, tankers, etc. This inflates demand for a few weeks until the fear stabilizes and inventory builds stop.

1992Q45A
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Texasoil,

I have cited the different forumlations many many times before. The dollar is currently appreciating vs the euro.. It may just crack 1.20.. The dollar is way oversold, but as long as our deficits skyrocket, it will be hard to make that back.

Vimy is stating very plainly that reserves are dropping rapidly, and crude is rising because there is no new reserves to match the decline. He believes we will never see the 28 opec wants ever again. He believes rising gas prices are here to stay permanently. I don't..

Different forumlations, combined with no new refineries, combined with the ever present fear premium are keeping prices high.. However crude is sitting at 6 week lows.. If the traders begin to take profits, it could decline even faster.

texasoil
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Like I said--remove the inventory build (fear factor) and the equilibrium price moves down $13-16/Bbl in a month. 'Traders' can't hold the paper barrles forever, they have to take delivery of liquid barrels that are on the way or sell their position. I 've got a feeling a whole lot of money (from hedge funds?) is betting on continued price rise--and it ain't gonna happen--and when the position close-out starts, the 'paper price' is gonna drop like a stone. All we need to see $20 oil by year end is for peace to break out in Iraq. I suspect they will manage the situation a whole lot better now without us sticking our noses in the middle like now.

1992Q45A
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Agreed. Nice to hear someone else come down on the side of "comon sense" and not overblown paranoia regarding supplies.

People who have no control over the actual crude (traders) can't manipulate these prices for ever. The fear premium is decreasing daily.. When crude broke down past the 40 barrier a week or so ago, it then shot right back through 40.. why? The Oil execs in Kobar were kidnapped, and the next day oil went up 2/barrel.

It's so obvious, the fear premium is responsible for these prices.

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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Where, oh, where will the new supplies come from? There are no more Gawars. Demand is increasing and supplies are finite. Peak oil production will occur within 5-10 years.

Alarmist? Hardly. I have maintained that the age of cheap oil is coming to an end. Traders never talk about the actual resource base. They behave as if it is infinite. The fact remains that China et al. are the fastest growing importers of crude. Ford just invested $6 billion more for another factory to meet car demand in China and they are far behind VW in market share.

Oil discoveries are fewer and smaller every year.

One has to think past July futures. Maybe two whole years past July. Can you do it?

There is a fear premium on crude to be sure as I have noted here previously. There will certainly be fluctuations in CL However, the fear factor also points to the absolute value of the raw material. There has been a lot of inventory building but what remains of the "Seven Sisters" have based their base exploration limit to $23/b (or was it $25? I could be off a buck or two). The fact that there has been a huge amount of consolidation in the oil industry should not be overlooked. There is less out there and what remains takes more and more capital to recover.

Texas, are you saying that the fear premium is almost one third the price of a barrel of CL? Times have, however, changed since the 70s oil embargo.

Additionally, let's not confuse gas price and CL. Let's think of them as fishished product and raw material respectively. A big part of gasoline's cost to consumers is scarcity of supply. You can have all the oil you want but you can't make it into gas any quicker.

That alone should negatively affect the demand component price of oil yet oil is still at record levels. If this is the case, then the fear price on oil should be closer to 50%! However, in reality there are major major gigantic consumer markets coming of age and creating massive demand.

And let's keep things in perspective. OPEC accounts for only 23% of total world oil production. Most of the world's supply is from non OPEC members and the price is still up there. In fact, OPEC is afraid of losing it's relevency in the oil pricing game. The production increase they announced is a joke. It's only 500k barrels above what they were leaking. The traders lover it. Paper oil.

Meanwhile back in Shanghai, the tankers are coming more frequently. Ford wants to build 65k cars a year. GM builds 650k (doubling by 07), Toyota 400k, VW 800k. What are you going to run them on? Rice?

The cheap oil is gone.

VimyJ
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Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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BTW, I am still keenly interested in this subject but was on a vacation road trip for two weeks in my fabulous J30t burning premium all 4600 miles.

There will be more links as it is my goal to raise petro energy awareness.

1992Q45A
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Wouldn't miss em for the world

texasoil
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you gatta remember most crude is sold on long term deals, and not spot market or futures. Profitability of international integrated oil companies moves from exploration to production to refining to marketing depending on tax laws. Right now, lots of U.S. profits in marketing and refining. But tax laws allow them to pay 'royalties' for intellectual property assigned to wholy owned Bermuda subsidiaries and avoid most U.S. tax. Neat trick. You outta read 'Perfectly Legal' to better unstand the tax angle

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
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And most oil companies are involved in a great deal of hedging which they are all in a process of dropping because they don't see oil ever coming back to the $20s. Many oil co.s are hedged at $25 per barrel and have lost a lot of profits.

texasoil
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And just when did the 'big oil' companies learn to see the future clearly? China is cooling already, Euroland is moribund, the $ is no longer falling, and peace may well break out in Iraq and Israel, North Korea is making all the right moves toward joining a nuclear-free society--which will enable dramatic reductions in our military costs there--and the inventory build at consumer level is about over--all pointing toward a dramatic decline in risk premium-and an overshoot down in oil price as 'longs' have to cash out to cut their losses. I ain't gonna feel too sorry for those guys when they have to give up their shirts. Why do you think there has been NO interest from the oil Co's to use 'Strategic Reserves' here, Japan, Europe to blunt the price rise---its cause there weren't any lack of liquid barrels of oil.

greg_atlanta
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I'm in favor of higher gax taxes to reduce consumption and encourage efficiency. Those of us who need or want inefficient cars/trucks can pay more.

$3/gal gas would be the best thing that ever happened to Atlanta. Less traffic, less smog, fewer trophy wives in SUVs, etc.

1992Q45A
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That doesn't work. Look at Europe.

Let me rephrase. Once you open the gates to taxation it will never stop. You won't have 3/gal you will have 5.

nuQ
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"""""Let me rephrase. Once you open the gates to taxation it will never stop. You won't have 3/gal you will have 5."""""""" AMEN!!!!!!!

VimyJ
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Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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texasoil wrote:And just when did the 'big oil' companies learn to see the future clearly? China is cooling already, Euroland is moribund, the $ is no longer falling, and peace may well break out in Iraq and Israel, North Korea is making all the right moves toward joining a nuclear-free society--which will enable dramatic reductions in our military costs there--and the inventory build at consumer level is about over--all pointing toward a dramatic decline in risk premium-and an overshoot down in oil price as 'longs' have to cash out to cut their losses. I ain't gonna feel too sorry for those guys when they have to give up their shirts. Why do you think there has been NO interest from the oil Co's to use 'Strategic Reserves' here, Japan, Europe to blunt the price rise---its cause there weren't any lack of liquid barrels of oil.


The big oil co.s started to see the future when they began to consolidate.

A nation of 1.2 billion people cools its growth from 12% to 10%. India and Brazil are growing, too. Russia is only back to 20% of its former consumption as the USSR. Peace breaking out in the middle east? Not in our lifetimes sad to say. Keeping 30k troops in NK is a drop in the bucket compared to Iraq.

Currently, maximum daily world oil production is 80 mbpd. Demand is increasing and Saudi is the only oil producer that can ramp up production or so they claim and that by only 10%. Bear in mind that all of OPEC only produce 23% of the total.

The fact remains that there is most definitely a structural supply vs demand factor in the price of oil. No new oil is being created.

texasoil
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Demand is price elastic, as is supply. BIG oil has an incentive to keep things tight. They make lots more money with $35 oil than $25 oil. However, 'independents' have been discovering most of the oil for 2 decades now. Big Oil then buys out the independent. I also do not agree that no more oil is being created--that is not what the latest geological analysis shows. However, consumption growth did spurt a lot this year (3%) as compared to 1.5% expected. Look for China and Russia consumption/unit of GDP to drop precipitously in the next 3-5 years. Idon't have any real problem with $1.75 RUL in the U.S. AND I would like to see an 'excess consumption tax levied on large 'SUV's' and the like not in commercial service, and an additional 'road hogging' registration fee of %500/yr(just like for big trucks) for the behemoths >4500#. Gasoline used in personal watercraft and non-commercial boating should also have additional luxury consumption tax of at least $1/gal. And SUV/pickup owners should be required to carry additional property damage insurance to compensate owners of cars they collide with (regardless of fault) to recognize the excess damage caused by their non-conforming bumpers. There WERE regulations on bumber height so cars would not ride over/under. Pickups and SUV'd somehow got 'excluded'

VimyJ
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texasoil wrote:Demand is price elastic, as is supply. BIG oil has an incentive to keep things tight. They make lots more money with $35 oil than $25 oil. However, 'independents' have been discovering most of the oil for 2 decades now. Big Oil then buys out the independent. I also do not agree that no more oil is being created--that is not what the latest geological analysis shows.


Wasn't it supposed to be OPEC keeping things tight?:)

Independents look for smaller deposits the bigs look for the big ones. The above supports the contention that there is less big oil to be found.

I am very intrigued by this analysis you write of. Any geological analysis I have ever read points to peak production within a decade followed by a relatively steady and steep decline. Couple that with rising demand. Can you provide a link for this analysis?

VimyJ
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just listened to the WFT and NBR presentations at the recent UBS O&G conference. Both companies are active in the ME, and both gave a pessimistic assessment of the ME oilfields.

WFT (Weatherfield, a driller) CEO comments:-ME reservoirs aren't what they were 20 yrs ago-Spare capacity is scarce-Algeria, Lybia, UAE, Iran all struggle to maintain production rates-Ghawar production peaked at 5.1 mb/d and has declined to 4 and change.-Future production increments will come from smaller, more difficult reserviors.-The amount of work required to keep production constant keeps going up.-Security problems are forcing them to remove American and European workers from the ME-They are trying to replace these workers with people from Islamic countries. If that doesn't work, it will be very difficult to run the oilfields.

NBR (Nabors Industries, another driller) comments:-2 months ago, NBR got a call from Aramco (SA state owned oil co.). Aramco wanted 3 new oil drilling rigs quickly, too rushed to go through the normal bidding process. -"They are scrambling"-Saudi may be able to open some valves to increase production, but not without damaging reservoirs.-Rig intensity to sustain production in ME is going to go up markedly in the next few years

VimyJ
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texasoil
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Over in Saudi, they punch a 5000' well through easy sandstone and get a 10,000 B/D well every time almost. The rest of the time is 50,000 B/D. Takes 5 days to drill and complete the well, but ?? to connect it to the system.

The big expense and time are in building th ecrude processing centers and pipelines. Still, all in cost of the oil loaded on the tankers is less than $2.00/Bbl

VimyJ
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Not to mention a shortage of tankers. Much of the current fleet is reaching the end of its life span.

As the E&P CEO said, production is dropping on the massive Ghawar field. It's still massive but it does have it's limitations. I understand that pumping has to be undertaken in such a way that flow patterns of the crude are not disturbed. Messing with it can ruin a well.

Conversely, they went on strike in Venezuela and seriously harmed their wells by not pumping for a time.

VimyJ
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Good look at China's energy situation.

http://english.people.com.cn/2....html

Q45denver
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Interesting article on oil as a renewable resource :

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/n...38645

VimyJ
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Now.... I have done a lot of DD in the last few months, took a few geology courses back in my university days and have always taken an interest in geology*. I wondered why I had never heard of this abiotic oil theorey that had been well understood since the early 1900s. Odd.

This article has been making the rounds of various oil stock boards. Here is a response from one:

Replenishment of oil fields by "Abiotic Oil" is basically an urbanmyth. The Eugene Island field in the Gulf of Mexico was partiallyreplenished by a renewed flow along a known fault (the "Red Fault").As oil was pumped out of the Eugene field, the pressure in the fieldwas lowered. The source rock for the field still had oil under highpressure and the fault was a "pipeline" that allowed for somerefilling. The increase in cumulative field production is estimatedat a little under 100 million barrels.

Elsewhere, a test hole was drilled in Sweden to see if there was anyvalidity to Gold's theory. The result was – no oil. However they mayhave set a record for the deepest wild goose chase.

Finally, I posted the following on the "Downstrean Ventures,Petroleum & Energy Markets" board a few days ago in response tosomeone else seeing the same article.

"Even if there were any basis to abiotic oil, it wouldn't help much.First, assume the world has a generous 3 trillion barrels ofaccumulated "abiotic" oil. Next, the earth's crust has been aroundfor about ~4 billion years.

This yields an annual renewable production rate of:(3 x 10^12) / (4 x 10^9) =750 barrels of renewable abiotic oil per year or about 2 barrels perday.

At the world's current usage rate of 80 million barrels a day, thiswould mean "each day's renewable supply" would keep us going forabout 2 one-thousandths of a second.

Now what?

*Utah was fantastic! Who knew there were so many wonderfully different characteristics and forms sandstones could have. In fact, the 36 mile long approach road to the Island in the Sky area of Canyon Lands National Park has outfit drilling for oil about 20 miles in. Seemed very strange to me so I asked the Ranger in the vistor center about it.

She said in a kind of upset way that someone was in fact drilling. Then I see a display about the 2 different ideas for an odd geological formation in the in park named "The Crater". Theorey one (long the favorite) was that it was caused by a meteorite. Number two (much more recent) holds that it was caused by a salt dome.

Salt domes and oil go hand in hand. I took the hike to the feature. (Was solo this time because the wife wanted to sit by the pool with a book and hit the the shops.) Looked like theorey 2 was more plausible to me and so, apparently, did the oil drillers.

1992Q45A
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Logic prevails

Insurgents stepped up their campaign against Iraq's infrastructure Tuesday, blasting two oil pipelines and cutting the country's oil exports. Gunmen also attacked a convoy of civilian contractors, killing some of them.

Authorities curbed oil exports through the Persian Gulf by half - from an average of 1.85 million barrels per day to more than 800,000 barrels - after saboteurs blasted the two pipelines on the Faw peninsula of southern Iraq.

The attacks sent temporary ripples through international petroleum markets, but crude futures ended lower. Contracts for U.S. light crude for July delivery rose as high as $38.40 during New York trading, before easing back to settle at $37.19 per barrel, down 40 cents. July contracts for Brent crude rose as high as $35.90 at one point before retreating to $35.29, down 20 cents in London.

Iraqi officials told Dow Jones Newswires they expected to have the damage repaired within a few days. However, petroleum analyst Paul Horsnell, the head of energy research at Barclays Capital in London, said that as a result of the blasts, Iraq would probably fail to meet its export target of 2 million barrels a day for June.

VimyJ
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So much for the OPEC quota increase. Oil closed at $37.45. Still up there. The futures guys don't know which way to turn. Then there is the nonsense in SA.

Interesting times.

VimyJ
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Oil finished today over $38. Gas prices in my area are down. What market forces do you believe are at work here? Hmmm....

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JoshIsSciFi
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Everyone that is still reading these posts, please post what oil companies and futures you are viewing, give the symbols for them if you could please. btw, gas was at $1.99 here last night when I fueled up the Q(which btw I run at WOT 80% of the time no matter what gas prices are), down from $2.13 a week ago.


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