World Petro Energy Overview

[VimyJ]

I started a thread in the "General Section" about $100/barrel crude becoming a distinct possibility by the end of this decade. The Infiniti section is a little more "considered" crowd so I'll post this must read link here. This document will give members a very good idea of the state of the world energy supplies.

http://www.energyshortage.com/...2.pdf

[PalmerWMD]

Good read.

Permit me to add a couple of notes to this:

Right now gasoline from coal liquefication is a little over $5/gallon mark, (sans taxes)

This price while high and changing some habits for the population at large (no more living 50 miles from work except for top income folks, little or no retiree and teenager driving) will be able to be maintainend at this and no higher level for longer than we probaly need internal combustion engines.Coal reserves are <that> plentiful on the planet especially in USA and Europe.

<But> switching over to this technolgy to support our current levels of transportation fuel consumption can take decades.Tremedous price spikes in the meantime that are much greater than this magical $5/gal price cannot be excluded (2 or 3 times as much ?).

reserves of coal do appear sufficient to support our Infinit habits for a very long time.

Who knows, maybe when I am 60, I'll fill up the Q with $20 /gal gas and I will love driving it just as much.

even if a major supply distrution in 20 years makes electrical cars universal, the power and range advatage of an internal combustion engine will remain for decades to come.Battery technololgy is already well matured and the chemistry has been researched for many deacdes, I would not expect major breathroughs, to change this situation for a very long time.

Fred...

[VimyJ]

Good read.

Permit me to add a couple of notes to this:

Right now gasoline from coal liquefication is a little over $5/gallon mark, (sans taxes)

That would put world price at the $90/bbl mark forecast by some.

I agree about the ICE is going no where soon. Heard an article on PBS saying that hybrid technolgy is the best use all available resources plus cost of the technolgy and emitted polutants. It is amazing how much misinformation there is about gas/electric cars. People still think you are limited by the duration of the battery charge. But I digress.

Cheap oil is also a fundamental foundation of Western civilization as we know it. Cheap food, cheap transporation, cheap electricity, plastics, insectides, everything will become more expensive.

These days they are calling 400 million barrel discoveries in deep water "major finds". There are the Alberta, and Venzuelan oil sands that could defintitly cushion the bill somewhat as they are economically very profitable @ ~ $30 especially in Alberta. The Alberta sands have been providing the midwest for years. 175 billion barrels of the estimated 1 trillion total in Alberta are presently available for mining using current technology that is, however, quite dependent on natural gas (NG) or other heat source (nuclear?) in the recovered bitumen ore processing.

[wamQ45]

And this is why I have a $hi# loaded of Canadian Oil Trusts in my portfolio.

[VimyJ]

And this is why I have a $hi# loaded of Canadian Oil Trusts in my portfolio.

I just checked out a yearly stock price chart for COS.UN (TSX). What was the reason for the recent big drop in price ?

[wamQ45]

I just checked out a yearly stock price chart for COS.UN (TSX). What was the reason for the recent big drop in price ?

Canadian Oil Sands Trust is a lower yeilding CANROY that may have been effected by the recent bantering about interest rate hikes.

[VimyJ]

Another heads up:

http://www.newcolonist.com/ghawar.html

[PalmerWMD]

A good read.

Fred...

[PalmerWMD]

Also here is a good link.It does a good job explainingnfossil fuel uses.

I do believe we can substitute coal derived petra chemcials for much of this albeit with higher ( much higher) prices for everything, fuel, food, houing. etc.

Living standards will drop tremendously.Theses are the "good old days"

http://www.newcolonist.com/world_without_oil.html

Fred..

[VimyJ]

Here is another fine energy report that is not limited to petroleum exclusively.

However, and this must be considered when reading, this report was compiled in 1998 when oil prices were in the low to mid $20s. A lot can happen in 5-6 years which is quite a long time ago when considering the data was probably another 1-2 yrs old when collected. It goes without saying that the latest data is the most relevant as the Iraq Survey group has discovered. (Sorry coudn't resist.:oface )

Also, the report's conclusion about the oil sands in the overview section are very dated. The author mentions that the oil sands are located primarily in Alberta and this limits their ability to be a ubictuous source of petroleum energy. Already, the midwestern US has been using these oil sands products for years delivered through well established pipeline systems. Construction has started on pipeline extensions to the Gulf of Mexico and a pipeline over the Rockies to BC for direct access to Japan and China is beginning.

The link does give a very good 1998 view of world energy resources.

http://www.worldenergy.org/wec...w.asp

[VimyJ]

Fred,

Your link doesn't seem to be working. I want to read it.

[PalmerWMD]

Hmm works fine when I try it.Its from your yourcolonist link above (archive)

Fred..

[maxnix]

I remember in 1974 being told that all the petroleum reserves in the world would be expired by 1995. While they are finite, no one knows what the reserve number is.

[DJoker]

I remember in 1974 being told that all the petroleum reserves in the world would be expired by 1995. While they are finite, no one knows what the reserve number is.

True enough...nobody knows. And for that reason right there, shouldn't we be focusing more on alternative fuel sources? I mean, isn't it better safe than sorry?

[VimyJ]

I remember in 1974 being told that all the petroleum reserves in the world would be expired by 1995. While they are finite, no one knows what the reserve number is.

The unalterable fact it that the cheap oil is now in decline. There are no more huge finds of conventional oil to be made though the Rift Valley in Africa does offer some potential. The oil reserve figures are pretty well known and there are no more Ghawars. Oil will continue to be discovered but the amounts will be smaller and in more and more remote locations that will be more and more expensive to exploit. The cheap stuff is gone.

[Q45tech]

China car [sedan] sales are doubling each year: 1 million in 2002, 2 million in 2003, will they hit 4 million in 2004.

Due to lack of MODERN emission controls each car pollutes 8 times more than a new US car.http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...3.htm

China will consume WORLD oil faster than it can be found and much faster than it can be recovered and converted to gasoline.

With China at 6 million barrels per day now, it now equals Japan in oil consumption.

[VimyJ]

Also here is a good link.It does a good job explainingnfossil fuel uses.

I do believe we can substitute coal derived petra chemcials for much of this albeit with higher ( much higher) prices for everything, fuel, food, houing. etc.

Living standards will drop tremendously.Theses are the "good old days"

http://www.newcolonist.com/world_without_oil.html

Fred..

The link worked this time.

I was talking with an older guy about this situation. He apologized for his generation's pillaging of the world's resource base and said something that has really stuck with me. He said that if anything were to happen to civilization as we know it as a result of some calamity, never again would there be civilization as we know it now. All the cheap and easily accessible resources have been fully exploited. Never will an industrial revolution occur again. The copper age will never happen because all the free appearing copper is gone forever. No Copper Age means no Bronze age. No Bronze Age means no Iron Age.

The US was built on steel in the 19th century. There were deposits of iron ore so pure in Michigan and Minnesota that the ore could go straight from the mine into the steel furnance. The company 3M came into existance to exploit that resource. This resource is almost completely gone now.

People think civilization is concrete and eternal but in reality it is a very fragile artifact. A comet strike or climate change could shake our world to its foundation. A massive south east Asia volcanic explosion in the early 19th century had a world wide impact. It caused crop failures in China and an outbreak of cholera that spread around the world. Apparently, they were stacking corpses like chord wood in NYC in 1805.

I don't mean for this post to be a downer but rather to make us appreciative of this fleeting moment in which we now live. Interesting times lie ahead.

[VimyJ]

China car [sedan] sales are doubling each year: 1 million in 2002, 2 million in 2003, will they hit 4 million in 2004.

Due to lack of MODERN emission controls each car pollutes 8 times more than a new US car.http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...3.htm

China will consume WORLD oil faster than it can be found and much faster than it can be recovered and converted to gasoline.

With China at 6 million barrels per day now, it now equals Japan in oil consumption.

And let's not forget India's 1 billion+ also striving for the "good life".

Kyoto needs to be rethought by the current administration.

[VimyJ]

Just read a report that exploration activities off the coast of Nova Scotia are drilling in 6000 ft of water with a total expected depth of over 21,000 ft to reach the hoped for deposits. The cheap stuff is gone.

[VimyJ]

More reading:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/new...=mktw

[Q45tech]

http://broadcast.forio.com/pro...=7887

And you mere mortals think you can do something about oil prices/consumption. Don't blame George he got the problem from Bill.

Play the oil simulation game!

Hint: half our cars have to be burned tomorrow and zero population growth. Plus all commutes must be cut in half, sleep at work during the week.

We use 3 gallons per inhabitant per day.

[VimyJ]

We will be extremely hard hit here in N.A. when the peak oil prices arrive. To say we are dependent on cheap petroleum is an understatement to say the least. Nations elsewhere are either used to paying higher prices at least for gasoline or are underdeveloped and so will evolve along with the rising cost of oil.

We will be shocked here because our standard of living will be the most hard hit. Our entire transportation infrastructure is built upon the reliance for cheapest fuel on earth.

It is hard to fathom the changes in store for us in the next 10 to 20 years. The cheap oil is done for. Very interesting times lie ahead.

[AZ94Q]

Gas has grown on par if not cheaper then inflation

The world is coming to an end

100/barrel oil

blah blah blah

more paranoia

it's been said countless times, before... it will be said countless times again.. meanwhile the normal people will continue to function

[PalmerWMD]

I dont think ti will be as soon as 10 years.

It doesnt matter leftie or rightie btw, I am as right as they come but living will become more expensive and a lot ofPPL will die will it be in 50 years? 100 years?

I dont know.

Its still healthy to some discussion about this....

Fred...

[AZ94Q]

Ever hear of Syberia?

That's just one example of untapped oil. There are plenty of other sources.

Our strategic oil reserves are nearly 100% full.

There is vast untapped resources in Alaska.. Of course this remains to be seen if we will drill there...

[AZ94Q]

Who knows what will happen. That's exactly the point.

I get annoyed when people read these reports and then get scared and go telling everyone what will happen, as if it's some sort of fact.

Nobody knows what will happen

In 10-20 years we may have a alt fuel revolution, and lower our use of foreign crude so much, prices will fall..

Nobody predicted 10/barrel crude in 99.. but it happened

[AZ94Q]

China is eating up tons of oil..

It's just simple math.. More and more countries are becoming modernized, which means they are consuming more fuel/oil..

Imagine if India undergoes a complete modernization like China.. They have already begun this, in fact..

Supply/Demand.. The supply is finite for now, and demand keeps increasing..

The Saudis learned their lesson in the last gas crunch here, and agreed never to use oil as a weapon against the U.S. again

If you think the U.S. is going to sit around and let oil goto 100/barrel, espically when we have plenty of our own, your flat ot wrong..

All the major countries who consume oil will not let this happen. It would crush the world economy.. OPEC realizes this, look at the uproar at 35/barrel.. It's already stablizied and after the summer will begin to go down.

[AZhitman]

LOL - Hey Mike, I see you have a new sparring partner!

Great thread, good info. These are indeed prosperous and interesting times we are blessed to be living in.

p.s. Mike, you'll be please to know I only thought of you once when I was installing my 4.08 rear gears and decreasing my fuel economy (and tire life) 15%.

[AZ94Q]

Furthermore.. Gas could be mcuh cheaper.

We are not helping ourselves

Gas here in phoenix is different then gas in tucson (which is less then 200 miles away)

Same with LA vs SF... Same with tx vs ca or az

Not to mention the federal and state taxes on gas

Not to mention allt he oil companies consolidated, and now there are only a very few number of competitors left.

These are the major issues we need to address. Not BS propoganda that has been said 1000000 times before..

As max pointed out, all this rhetoric about the reserves has been said countless times before.. meanwhile we sitll have the cheapest gas in the world..

Let's address the following issues, and not worry about propoganda that may or may not come into fruition in the not so very near future

1. Consolidation of oil companies lowering competition2. Brutal State and federal Taxes on oil3. Different mixtures of gas used all over the country.

Many states in the south use pure gas. It's better then all that additive BS, on your car, and on the enviroment..

The additives do more harm then good. There isn't even a standard for additives.. everyone has their own.. it's ridiculous.

[AZ94Q]

The kyoto protocol?

You are definetley a lefty..

You must be anti american, if you want this relooked.. This would devestate our economy