World Petro Energy Overview

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VimyJ
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From the Baltimre article: "It was a beautiful scene. The OPEC heads would have loved it." There you go sports fans.

I read an article stating that SUV slaes were beginning to tank. If I can find it, I'll post it.


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AZhitman
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Try "Weekly World News" - It's usually in the checkout line at the grocery store.

:D

Actually, SUV sales AND hybrid small car sales are up.

On a side note: It's AMAZING how people think they're saving money, dropping $25,000 (plus financing) on a new hybrid to SAVE $500 a year on rising fuel costs. Idiots.

I'd also LOVE to show these nincompoops (who claim they're doing it to "save the environment") the overwhelming environmental impact of sending an old car to the scrap heap AND the impact of manufacturing a new one. Maybe that'd change their narrow green minds. Then again, probably not.

AZ94Q
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They are all hypocrits.. On so many levels..

I love the lefty hollywood elitists, like Arianna huffington rolling around in her prius, thinking she is making a difference. Meanwhile she eats up all sorts of energy on her mansion..

It's just like the EPA saying some fuel additives are worse for the enviroment then normal fuel.. It's all a big joke..

Taxing cigarette smokers, and letting obese people blame it on their genes...

The hypocracy never stops in the United Sates..

Basically attack and tax whoever the hip group is at the time.. Cigarette smokers, poor MPG vehicle drivers... Of course the acoholics get a free ride, because the govt tried banning that once...

If you want to be a convervationist that is fine, but don't be a fraud...

I saw ed beagely JR (sp?) a few times.. He may be a lefty hippie hollywood type, but at least he lives the life.. He uses some custom built rig to solar power his pad, drives a prius, doesn't eat animal etc etc..

If you're going to do anything, go all out, or don't do it at all..

Nothing chaps my hide more then whiny leftys buying a prius, and then thinking they are one up on everyone else..

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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Here is yesterday's news today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040510/markets_oil_6.html

The Saudi annoucement knocked $1 off the price off crude yesterday but as I write oil is back up to $39.30.

The Algerian oil minister said that most OPEC countries are pumping at full capacity. Only Saudi has the ability to increase production meaningfully and, as we have learned, the bush's and the Saudis have a deal to lower gas prices for the Nov. election.

"Leakage" above quota levels is already 2 mbpd.

I read of another factor that will add to pressure on oil supply. As consumption increases in China, oil tanker supply is stressed. Many of the ships are nearing the end of their useful lives and it will be 2 years before new double hulled ships begin to come on line.

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AZhitman
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Now THAT is interesting.... In light of the Exxon Valdez disaster, I know that industry is under a microscope... The tanker issue may turn out to have a bigger impact on pricing than availability OR consumption.

So if gas prices decrease in November, does that mean AZ was right about prices falling after Memorial Day? :)

I gotta admit, although I'm hoping he's right on that one, I'm not optimistic. I don't see it happening.

But that's OK - I say a Prius with PepBoys flames and a big aluminum wing today on my way to work, so I know that all is right with the world.... :D

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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It did leak out that Saudi had a deal with the bushies to lower oil prices for the election. It is entirely possible gas prices could come down before Nov. However, the fact remains that the cheap oil is all gone. Plenty of expensive oil left.

Oil is up to $39.70 as I write.

Q45tech
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I like Kerry's plan to bring gas up to $4/gallon and let young people [drivers] pay more into Medicare/SS as seniors don't drive much in the nursing home.

Old people vote, 18 years olds don't.

You get to pay one way or the other! Does it matter how much gas costs?

Exactly at 40.00 per barrel as we speak!

"Many analysts now believe the price of crude oil could go up another 25 percent to around $50 per barrel in the next few months. Call options at the $50 per barrel level - contracts that allow buyers to purchase oil at that price - have more than doubled on NYMEX exchange where oil future are traded. The upward movement of future prices indicates that some traders consider $40 per-barrel-oil is now the floor, not the ceiling, and are betting on more upward pressure on oil prices.

Additional attacks in the Persian Gulf could push prices towards $60 per barrel, O'Grady said. "

"Yet historically prices aren't particularly high. Adjusted for inflation, they're slightly below what they were back in 1950 when we falsely recall gasoline flowing like water. Then the national average was $1.89 in today's dollars, compared to $1.84 at this writing. In 1981, gas was almost a dollar more per gallon than it is now when adjusted for inflation. "

So 2.84-$3.00 a gallon is in the cards to just equalize to 1981 prices.

Unfortunately inflation is in aftertax dollars so you need to make 2.5 times what you did in 1981 to pay the taxes and live the same.

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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Doubts about Saudi ability to bring down crude prices.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040511/markets_oil_5.html

Oil cracked the $40/b mark as I write.

VimyJ
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Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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More doubts about the Saudi supply. Check out point #3.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/...x.htm

VimyJ
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World Demand Estimates Revised Upwards

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4959509/

Q45tech
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Nice to see that Georgia is in the top 3 in per capita gas consumption. 565 gallons per person -----US avg 461http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasol....html

Stats for 2002 probably higher now. based on 210,000 more people in 16 months [GA is growing fast].

VimyJ
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Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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More Questions About OPEC Supply Capabilities (and other oil related pricing matters):

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040512/markets_oil_11.html

AZ94Q
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Gasoline has nothing to do with crude prices, right vimy?

http://news.ft.com/servlet/Con...27085

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AZhitman
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You guys take it to email. It's becoming boring, and difficult to comprehend.

Like watching two old women fight, no one's landing any solid blows.

p.s. I think it's spelled "lefties".

:nono

:D

VimyJ
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Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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It's not meant to scare. It's meant to inform.

There is an uncertainty premium built into the price to be sure but times have changed. China and India are industrializing and the cheap oil reserves are diminishing and demand has never been higher. Oil is not a renewable resource. Well, perhaps I'm not being technically correct.

There is oil being made all the time. Those peat beds in Canada just have to be subducted in a mountain building event and presto chango! in 20 million years we have brand new oil deposits or coal more likely. I'll have to do more research on this topic.

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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No, it's meant to scare..

You pass off links to sites that show your viewpoint, and act as if, there is no other opinion... That makes you well stupid..

I can show you 1x mil links about how bush adminstration planned and took part in 9/11.. does that make it true?

I can show you links of elvis being alive, does that make it true?

Sorry, simply providing links to websites that say wha tyou want to believe is fact, doesn't make it fact... Just like you said SUV sales were declining.. Greg pointed out 4 links to prove you wrong.. Maybe you're not wrong, but the fact remains, there is a link for every point of view..

I wish you would accept you may not be 100% correct. I accept this fact, yet you don't.. Most people accept this fact.. Only true idealogues of both parties, will not accept it..

The fact remains: You don't know what will happen. If you are so confident, you should open up a futures aco****, and put every single penny you have into call options on crude... You won't, because you arn't that confident, because you don't know what will happen. Simple.

You can have your viewpoint, but don't think that providing links to like minded people, makes you ultimately correct..

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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Hate to "re-engage" here, but just because someone WISHES something were true, does not make it so. [/QUOTE]

Vimy: It isn't just me saying it, sorry....

You could stand to learn something, but you are so ego centric. I doubt you could ever understand a world, where you might be wrong..

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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My sources are Reuters, Associated Press, various stock market journals, Oil and Gas Industry Publications, etc. There are links and then there are links.

I have invested in Canadian oil sands. So you could say I have a vested interest.

BTW, I read that there are a huge amount of $50 call options on CL.

I am actively looking for information that might prove me wrong. Haven't found any. Do you have any sources to contradict the information I have provided? I would appreciate any reputable links you could post here.

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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My sources are Reuters, Associated Press, various stock market journals, Oil and Gas Industry Publications, etc. There are links and then there are links.

The only reputable links you provide are for news storying about crude oil prices going up... DUH.. they are going up..

The reuters AP etc etc are just links commenting on rising crude.. The other links you provide about the oil situaiton in general, are biased...

I can provide a link from reuters saying crude hit 40 barrel today.. so what..

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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BTW, I read that there are a huge amount of $50 call options on CL.

Yep.. Just like there was a huge amount of people buying silver at 8 a few weeks ago, on inflation worries.. Now silver is trading at less then 6...

Just because crude is rising, doesn't mean it will rise forever, or that it won't go back down...

Vim: YOU MAY BE RIGHT.... history says you won't be..

You can mark my words.. If crude doesn't fall, and establishes a new base at 40, 50, 60+, the whole world economy is in big trouble.. Risisng crude is good for nobody.. not even opec.. this is why they want it between 28-30 a barrel, as they have stated...

I will be the first to say I was wrong..

Irrational speculation is driving up crude... Just like other commodities.. Look at gold/silver/corn.. they are all driven up and fall just as fast.. It's just the nature of the game..

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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In general, when everyone begins to pile up on one side, it's the best time to exit, and open a position on the other side... That's just a common rule of investing..

Crude is no different...

Gold and silver just had a major run up.. everyone began to pack in.. Go look at a chart on gold/silver now....

Contrarian investing is always benefical.. Everyone is packing in on crude... When profit taking kicks in, it will fall fast and hard... You can't possibly argue that..

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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That is precisely what is happening with oil shares right now. People thought that because crude was hitting the $40/b ceiling that is was time to short the oil co.s. Selling the news. Now the the facts are in and the rumor is a $40 floor.

Crude is different than silver or gold. Civilization as we know it depends on cheap energy. Sliver or gold could disappear from the earth and we would barely notice it. Not so with oil.

Oil will go up and down but the bias is that it will go up more than down. The world is entering a different phase because oil is dissappearing from the earth.

The cheap oil is gone. To you, that must seem like a contrarian position. I plan to add to my holdings on the dips.

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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AZ94Q
Posts: 1108
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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Yep.. The trend is definetely upward.. Everyone is loading up..

All the amatuer investors seeing it on CNBC, are opening futures accounts, hopeing to get rich.. Can't wait till the slide happens, they will all lose their money in a few days...

When the heard piles up, time to get out... Oil is no different then gold or silver.. It's just a commidity that is traded.. It's being loaded up, just like silver/gold.. and when the underlineing reaons for the pile up erode, TIMBER....

It'll happen sooner, rather then later...

VimyJ
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Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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Snippet from a forum I participate:

"Russia is cutting way back on selling enriched Uranium and Plutonium to the west for nuclear plant fuel use. The "Swords to Ploughshares" program is now in doubt.

Russia is planning/buiding over 20 new nuclear reactor power plants, even though the nation has as much nat-gas as the Saudi's have oil.

Russia has now passed a new law making state secret all data on oil and mineral reserves. Resource Minister approval for public traded company disclosure now mandatory.

New marginal tax rates on Russian Oil Exports are set at effective 89% to the State for each dollar over 25 a barrel.

Lukoil (favored by the Kremlin) has cut deals in Saudi Arabia and is trying desperately to resurrect their Iraqi claims.

Exxon and Chevron have been boxed out of Russia, while Total has been said to be welcomed by the Kremlin.

Yukos will be government property soon, and Sibneft's Abramovich (and his loot) is negotiating an exit visa fee.

Draw your own conclusions. My take is that Putin's advisors have got Russia in position to benefit mightily on the bet of higher oil.

GW's advisors thought their boy could cuddle up to Vladimir and grab a piece of the Russian reserves. Wrongggggg!

GW's been outfoxed by a far more clever bear."

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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Message board facts...

On top of that, a message board you participate in... I question the accuracy of that... What is it, nobloodforoil.com?

Lol... I'm glad you think you're so correct... but posting links and "message board facts" from like minded people, won't convince anyone else...

keep trying though

AZ94Q
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Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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Your theories have about as much validity as me saying star trek will come true...

Don't worry vimy, we won't need oil... We will learn how to break everything down at the atomic level.. we won't need money, we will be able to make food out of our own desecration..

Star Trek here we come!!

As ridiculous as your statements, but hey I can find links...

I bet you can't wait to see a day after tomorrow.. more conspiracy theories for you to swirl around in your head...

Not to mention it's in a movie, it must be real

VimyJ
Posts: 1969
Joined: Wed Jul 24, 2002 6:09 pm

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Don't panic. We won't run out of oil. It just won't be cheap. Time to face facts.

AZ94Q
Posts: 1108
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 1:51 pm

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We'll see.

If what you say does come true, it is time to panic.. I don't think you realize how much of our economy is dependent on cheap oil.. We can't just switch over to europe prices, and expect everything to be fine.. Many jobs will be lost, the impact to our economy will be huge..

If what you say is true, it is time to panic..


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