Egypt?

[stebo0728]

Ok so just throwing it out there for discussion, whats everyone's take on

A) Are the protesters right or wrong?
B) Is the administrations response to the crisis right or wrong? Or do we owe a response at all?
C) Whats the risk of a Suez Blockage which would be a sore blow to our petroluem supply?
D) Any other issues regarding this?

Sorry Im just wanting some more opinions on this stuff, and the forum seems a bit dead today

[audtatious]

A) Both sides feel they are right
B) I have not been following it at this time so I'm not going to comment
C) Unknown but blocking the Suez should lead to us immediately go on the offensive
D) Probably GWB's fault

[Cold_Zero]

I highly doubt that this will lead to western style democracy in Egypt.
My gut instinct is that Iran may be helping to prompt these uprisings. This appears to be a ploy to remove more moderate leaning leaders from the Middle East and install leaders more antagonistic towards Israel. I am reminded when the Palestinians attempted to overthrow King Hussein in the 1970's. My dad's unit in Europe was mobilized to go into Jordan to assist the 82nd with the operation to free the hostages. Some interesting times.
I had heard that the government in Egypt shut down the entire internet in the country (ZDnet), which I thought was very interesting since there has been a lot of talk in the past few months about our government having the ability to shut down the internet. I also heard that President Assad was proposing changes in his government to preempt an uprising there. This shall be interesting.

I would think quelling the protesters and making people step down will be easy to resolve, if President Obama just gets on TV and says As Salamu Alaykum or however it is spelled. Then I would think Mubarak and the Protesters would have a Coca Cola moment. Isn't it just that easy? Not sure why people all around the world think that we need to do something about this, because it worked so well for Iran.

[audtatious]

Let them do what they want to do and settle it amongst themselves. But, block trade with the Suez and there B trouble

[96Qowner]

When we invaded Iraq to remove Saddam, after already having entered Afghanistan to deal with OBL and the Taliban, I immediately saw the larger geopolitical strategy. While removing Saddam and the instability he imposed on the region, we also placed large numbers of troops and materiel in 2 of Iran's largest neighbors, and in removing Saddam, we removed the enemy that had caused so many Iranian deaths and chaos - a good will gesture towards Iran's Ayatollahs. Three birds with one stone.

Now Iran has taken a page from that book, at least in surrounding Israel. Hezbollah, Iran's clients, have taken control of Lebanon, and Egypt is now ripe for picking by the Muslim Brotherhood. If the Arabs had any competence at all in waging war, Israel could count on being invaded any day now. That, of course, would require courage and competence, something Arab countries have repeatedly proven they lack. Iran's religious leaders prefer the throw-a-bomb-and-run strategy. If Egypt is overtaken by the MB, Israel will have its hands full, trying to fight off the weasels dead set on carelessly murdering as many innocent Jews as they can. Iran will have its revenge for the virus that destroyed its centrifuges.

On the other hand, Egypt's responsible, moral people may be able to fight off the MB when it decides it's time to take over the country and reduce it to an immoral, backwards, murderous regime, intent on destroying the West and everything it stands for. The Suez Canal is VITAL.

If the Obama administration blows this one, the fool should be impeached and run out of the country on a rail. For those who still have faith in Obama, now is the time to pray. I have no such faith in the boob. Keep your fingers crossed. This one is a biggie - VERY scary.

[audtatious]

Interesting how this "uprising" is being praised by some as being a show of democracy in action (or seems to be). The larger 2009 Iran "uprising" was relatively ignored and those who were arrested are still being killed today.

[96Qowner]

Barry-the-appeaser just couldn't bring himself to annoy Iran's Ayatollahs then. Let's hope he's not so squeamish this time.

All hope rests with Egypt's military, as in Pakistan. If they can deal with the jihadists in their ranks, they just might be able to save their country, and the West, from certain doom.

Picture a foreign army trying to defend the Canal from jihadist Egyptian terrorists. Just not possible.

[audtatious]

Well, their rail system has been shut down indefinitely and the US is sending Marines to the US Embassy.

And....

The cause of this is Global Warming? http://climateprogress.org/2011/01/30/e ... il-prices/

[96Qowner]

LOL! Oh fer shure, yup, it's all about that there global warming! Gotta love educated Liberals - what a hoot.

[heliochrome85]

im amused at this thread. please continue.

[audtatious]

When the Tea Party has a protest that has no violence, no proof of racism nor hate, and they leave the area trash free, they are race hating bigots. When Egypt protesters fire bomb stuff, destroys other stuff, commit larceny while protesting it's a show of democracy.

lol

[stebo0728]

Hey T - Your thoughts on this is what I was sorta looking forward to ....

Do you have any?

[AZhitman]

Tariq, I'll admit I'm a bit ignorant on this one... Is this really about democracy? Why do we call Mubarek and "ally" if he's not hearing the wishes of the Egyptian people? Are we getting the "real" story? Is Mubarek really a dictator? Are the Egyptian people looking for democracy, or are they just upset at their economic conditions? The protesters seem to be pro-military but fighting with the police... why? Isn't the military under orders from Mubarek?

Gah, I'm confused.

I guess my position will be the one that favors democracy and freedom for the populace, regardless of who leads them and what God they pray to. Unfortunately, I know that geopolitical concerns, religious infighting, and power hunger will interfere with any efforts towards true democracy...

I've got a couple Egyptian friends here in town, but they're busy coordinating contact with their families and God knows what else...

[bigbadberry3]

So why not let the Egyptians over throw their government? Doesn't our (US) declaration of independence allow for an over throw of the government?

[IBCoupe]

I don't think the 2009 Iran uprising was ignored; I think Iran's police force was able to put it down, whereas Egypt's has not. Iran has a pretty devoted military, where it looks like Egypt's is torn.

To answer some of your questions, Greg: After Israel, Egypt receives the most foreign aid from the United States, not because Mubarak is a nice guy who's a stickler for public mandates, but because he cooperates with our (and Israel's) interests. Since the Cold War, we've routinely made nice with not-nice people because it serves our short-term interests. That's what happened in Iran. That's what happened in Afghanistan. That's what's still happening in Saudi Arabia. That's what might be about to change in Egypt.

As for the military: last week, WikiLeaks released some Egyptian documents that illustrated some strife between Mubarak and the Egyptian military - Mubarak (all of 82-years-old) wants to leave his 32-year reign over Egypt to his next of kin, and the military brass aren't entirely keen on that.

[IBCoupe]

So why not let the Egyptians over throw their government? Doesn't our (US) declaration of independence allow for an over throw of the government?

Might just be that the devil you know beats the devil you don't.

[Cold_Zero]

im amused at this thread. please continue.

Let me know if I say anything amusing, Huggy Bear

[stebo0728]

So why not let the Egyptians over throw their government? Doesn't our (US) declaration of independence allow for an over throw of the government?

If we are over run with red coat commies from the inside here, I wonder if Europe and Asia would "allow" us to overthrow our own government? Hmm?

[szh]

The cause of this is Global Warming?

Can I blame my toilet backing up on global warming too?

Z

[AZhitman]

Somehow, this *HAS* to be Sarah Palin's fault.

In all seriousness, I'm inclined to believe that any attempts to quell the innate human desire for freedom will end badly... might be time for ol' Barry to get with the program and be a true defender of democracy. Israel can handle itself.

Besides, we need that foreign aid to go to all the foreigners INSIDE the US.

[audtatious]

GWB is to blame for everything so he can be the fall guy. I can't believe he has not been arrested for firing the shot on the grassy knoll....

[stebo0728]

GWB is to blame for everything so he can be the fall guy. I can't believe he has not been arrested for firing the shot on the grassy knoll....

Id be willing to bet that GWB was firing some grass alright during those days

[audtatious]

Probably. How quickly things change. Dopers and kids liked Clinton more because he "tried" pot....didn't inhale. Same people hated Bush even tho he was into the party and alcohol lifestyle and did coke some.

[96Qowner]

Pew did a large poll of Islamic countries, including Egypt, in the spring of 2010. It provides some insight into how Egyptians might feel about a future government.

By wide margins, Muslims surveyed in the spring of 2010 believed that Islam's influence in politics was positive rather than negative. In Egypt, Islam's role in politics was seen favorably by an overwhelming 85%-to-2% margin among Muslims.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1874/egypt- ... -extremism

The danger in deposing Mubarak is the uncertainty of just whom will replace him. His regime has all the power. The Muslim Brotherhood has proven leadership, a strong organizational structure and access to power. The good people protesting in the streets have none. History shows us that forces like the MB keep their powder dry until the good folks in the street have succeeded in destroying the dictatorship's legitimacy. They then step in and seize power.

Maybe that won't happen in Egypt. Maybe. I wouldn't bet on it, though - wouldn't be prudent.

It appears the best course for the USA to take is to try to preserve this regime's power structure until orderly elections can be held. If it all descends into chaos, the odds aren't good.

[96Qowner]

News commentary from the Israeli perspective:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 08731.html

What has most confounded Israeli officials and commentators alike has not been the strength of the anti-regime protests, but the American response to them. Outside the far Left, commentators from all major newspapers, radio and television stations have variously characterized the US response to events in Egypt as irrational, irresponsible, catastrophic, stupid, blind, treacherous, and terrifying.

They have pointed out that the Obama administration's behavior - as well as that of many of its prominent conservative critics - is liable to have disastrous consequences for the US's other authoritarian Arab allies, for Israel and for the US itself.

The question most Israelis are asking is why are the Americans behaving so destructively? Why are President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton charting a course that will necessarily lead to the transformation of Egypt into the first Salafist Islamic theocracy? And why are conservative commentators and Republican politicians urging them to be even more outspoken in their support for the rioters in the streets?

Does the US not understand what will happen in the region as a result of its actions? Does the US really fail to understand what will happen to its strategic interests in the Middle East if the Muslim Brotherhood either forms the next regime or is the power behind the throne of the next regime in Cairo?

Distressingly, the answer is that indeed, the US has no idea what it is doing.

[bigbadberry3]

Why does the US have to do anything?

[stebo0728]

Why does the US have to do anything?

I agree with that sentiment. Unfortunately it doesnt work that way, as we are still basically the global policeman, or global "mommy" for the rest of the world. The rest of the world expects some kind of response from the US. Neither of the 2 basic possible responses will favor us overall, but yet one or the other has to be tendered. Thats one of the b*tch jobs of the POTUS.

[IBCoupe]

Actually, I anticipate that the U.S. will do nothing (at least publicly).

[stebo0728]

Actually, I anticipate that the U.S. will do nothing (at least publicly).

Thats certainly an option, but as you probably know, in the big game silence IS a response. So really thats a third possible response, so between that, favoring Mubarak, or favoring the revolters, which is the best option?

I dont pretend to know that answer. Again, thats one of the b*tch duties of the POTUS, to make those calls.

[audtatious]

Mubarak has done a "good" job of not attacking Israel. I'm sure Israel itself is nervous as to the potential outcome. IMO, there's no reason to believe the Muslim Brotherhood would continue to "lay off" of Israel if they were to have some additional pull in the Gov.