New CAFE standards: $157 billion.

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C-Kwik
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AZhitman wrote:
C-Kwik wrote:Large trucks used to transport our goods generally do not get great gas mileage. Large frontal area and a poor aerodynamic profile is hard to improve upon. And long haul trucks aren't going to get much benefit from hybrid drive trains. So an increased cost of fuel is going to impact the prices of a lot of goods across the board.
Or, maybe it would drive manufacturers to increase efficiency due to consumer demand... :poke:
Without even touching the technical challenges in making significant increases in efficiency in large trucks, if we assumed the rate of increase in overall efficiency of both methods (CAFE standards vs fuel taxes) were the same, in the end, the CAFE standard would not require consumers to continue paying for the additional tax on top of the cost of fuel. And its unlikely there would be much difference in the cost of the vehicles themselves as the engineers are likely to converge on similar solutions as the CAFE forcing.

Furthermore, if the cost of fuel is increased, every product that has to be shipped or transported in part or entirely will see some increase in its price. That will reduce the demand for products in general. Given the nature of our economy, less consumer spending will put some stress on our economy. It would also drive up costs for people who don't even own cars. The majority of those are likely to be lower income folk who are more likely to be struggling to afford the basics as it is.


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IBCoupe wrote:Not necessarily, Greg. You're assuming that when consumers see an increase in price, they're going to associate that with their car. When your TV gets more expensive, you don't remark, "Oh, that's just my car choices and the car choices of society coming back to bite me." When vegetables get more expensive, very few exclaim, "Darn me and my choices!" Some consumers might try to get some cost savings in response, but only some fraction of them will go and say, "Let me buy a new car."

Woo, externalities!
Uhhh, no.

I was thinking strictly in the realm of fleet managers and trucking company owners. Y'know, the guys who buy the trucks?

Woo assumptions!

Might also have a positive impact on rail transport, and even encourage local production rather than relying on shipping.

I'm amazed that the two of you (who I consider to be remarkably intelligent) are so enamored of such a fallible, expensive, intrusive solution developed by a government agency. :gotme

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AZhitman
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Also, why the truck loophole? Manufacturers are only required to do fuel economy testing on light duty vehicles (Maximum Gross Vehicle Weight of 8,500 lbs or less). Most 3/4 and one ton pickups surpass that figure and, as such, don't require testing OR factor into the overall average.

Here's a list from 2009 - How many of these do you see on the road? http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/pdfs/Cat3VehicleList.pdf

Hell, within a 2-mile radius of where I live, I'd bet the vehicles on this list outnumber vehicles NOT on the list!

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Why are ya'll still arguing about this? Nobody is going to change their mind even if specific proof was put in front of them (on either side).

SOSDD

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C-Kwik
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I can't say why there is a truck loophole specifically. However, if I were to speculate, perhaps its that businesses who have to deal with fleets of vehicles and the fuel costs associated with them already place a higher value on economy than the average consumer since it can impact their bottom lines significantly.

Perhaps its that businesses have more specific needs when it comes to choices in their vehicles. Long haul trucks are less likely to see any benefits from hybrid technology as opportunities for energy recovery is going to be rather small. Shorter range trucks with many stops (perhaps UPS & FedEx) could potentially see huge benefits from such a technology so there is already (Both companies have already deployed hybrids into their fleets) an economic force pushing such technology for this type of vehicle. Consumers on the other hand tend to have much more flexibility in general. A consumer who might want a small SUV to haul 2 kids around can easily choose between a FX35 and a Highlander Hybrid to accomplish the task at hand. The FX is obviously the nicer and more exciting choice and only $5K more with an annual fuel cost difference of about $1K. Plenty of people would be willing to pay that cost for the nicer car. And of course if the main constraint is hauling 2 kids around, then they have a multitude of other choices as well. Businesses on the other hand are likely to take a more pragmatic approach in their choices of vehicle. For delivery companies, payload and overall costs are going to be top priorities. Which is why delivery vehicles don't look and drive like an FX. :)
AZhitman wrote:Might also have a positive impact on rail transport, and even encourage local production rather than relying on shipping.
Sure. But if the overall cost effectiveness of using rail transport or producing locally isn't enough to encourage such alternatives already, then using an increase of costs to drive the trend towards these alternatives means the the companies will have had to reach some cost threshold first. Think these costs aren't going to affect the consumer?
AZhitman wrote:I'm amazed that the two of you (who I consider to be remarkably intelligent) are so enamored of such a fallible, expensive, intrusive solution developed by a government agency. :gotme
A. That I'm not cheer-leading for your team does not make me an advocate for the other. I'm not opposed to CAFE as I do believe there is a greater benefit in environmental, political and economic terms by reducing fuel consumption. If a better option presented itself, I wouldn't have any problem allowing that option to proceed. That said, consider I've only interjected responses to poor reasoning and incorrect facts.

B. You still have yet to prove CAFE is fallible, expensive and intrusive. At least relative to other options (since one of my constraints is that we need to try and deal with the issues I mentioned in [A]). Whether those issues are actually of concern is likely a different discussion to have and I am certainly open to discussing them as well.

C. That its developed by a government agency does not mean anything. A great idea is a great idea and a bad idea is a bad idea regardless of if a 2-year old came up with it or the person with the highest IQ in the world did. The technical merits of any idea does not include who came up with it.

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I don't necessarily disagree with (A) either... but I remain on the side of individual choice (as always). We're a perfect example, having recently trimmed our monthly fuel expenditures from $540/month to around $80/month.

Granted, our choice wasn't made for us, and CAFE had no effect on it (we're not in the market for a new vehicle). But it's a great illustration of the power of the price at the pump. Had gasoline been $4.20 a gallon instead of $3.78, I think I'd have made the move sooner.

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I understand your viewpoint. And for the most part, I agree with the ideal. But we are faced with reality. One reality is that we have been allowed to dump our waste products into everyone else's space without much thought. Imagine the response you would get if you started dumping all your trash into your neighbor's backyards. Its wholly unrealistic to consider trying to recover our vehicles' waste products and take them to a waste facility. We could try and clean it up on the back end with technology, but that would essentially be like adding a tax to fuel to cover the costs. I suspect the cost to keep the CO2 levels stable would be enormous. So I see little wrong with tackling the issue on the front end with the compromise being that we (as individuals) don't have to be actively trying to fix it on the back end or recover our own waste.

As for your fuel cost reduction, good for you Greg. Its a commendable achievement as your consumption under the national average by about the amount you were over the national average. It would be awesome if everyone could do that, but while I suspect people are much more conscious of fuel consumption than they were before, I don't see that kind of sacrifice being made anytime soon by any significant part of the population.

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Agreed - I suppose I just prefer that the "positive strides" come from the market, not mandates. I think policymakers severely underestimate the impact of "leading by example" and the power of word-of-mouth and social media in encouraging people to make the right choices, rather than simply codifying them into hard and fast rules.

For example, we recycle - a lot. I'm no environmentalist, I don't care about MMGW, there's no financial incentive for me to do so, and I think technology will advance and keep ahead of problems (such as landfill issues). By the same token, for example, I think people who buy bottled water are stupid (it seems ignorant and selfish to buy a 12oz bottle which I can slam in one swig, yet that bottle remains around for thousands of years). If my trash (cardboard, paper, aluminum, glass) can be capitalized upon by some company (which employs workers) and converted back into something good, then I feel good about separating our trash.

As I've said before, it's far more environmentally-unfriendly to dispose of an older car and purchase a new one. As such, I wonder... If all of the resources of CAFE were re-appropriated into educational campaigns to teach people the TRUTH about the environmental impact of bringing a new car to market, assisting recyclers with getting used car parts BACK into the market, and perhaps even providing incentives for working-class people to KEEP their old car on the road (such as subsidized repairs and maintenance), might we not be better off? We've been led to believe that swapping that B210 for a new Prius is "good for the environment". That is a bald-faced lie that's perpetuated and accepted by people who don't know any better.

Certainly, automakers would oppose it, but it might even have an impact on the debt crisis many Americans have found themselves in. Cars are the #1 (NUMBER ONE) depreciating asset, and most are bought on credit, creating undue hardships that yet ANOTHER government agency is created to address... whoops.

So, to piggyback onto your earlier comment, "That its developed by a government agency does not mean anything. A great idea is a great idea and a bad idea is a bad idea regardless of who came up with it". Seems to me if you "follow the money", there's some deep pocketed "idea-makers" pushing CAFE. The independent free-thinker (which I somehow perceived you to be) might want to reconsider hitching their wagon onto that policymaker and simply CONSIDER that there might be alternatives to this supposedly "good idea".

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AZhitman wrote:I was thinking strictly in the realm of fleet managers and trucking company owners. Y'know, the guys who buy the trucks?
AZhitman wrote:Or, maybe it would drive manufacturers to increase efficiency due to consumer demand...
My bad. Totally thought when you wrote "consumer demand" you meant "consumer demand" and not "a particular subset of consumer demand." ;)

Most of the Ford F-150s I see on the road aren't parts of fleets, as far as I can tell. But if that's who buys them, hey, okay... Couple of quick questions, though: don't fleet-operators always have the incentive to search out the more efficient truck that would suit their needs? Greater than the broader public?
AZhitman wrote:I'm amazed that the two of you (who I consider to be remarkably intelligent) are so enamored of such a fallible, expensive, intrusive solution developed by a government agency. :gotme
Do I need to repeat myself for the third time?
IBCoupe wrote:I'm not suggesting that CAFE can't be better. I'm not suggesting that there aren't better way to regulate. I'm not even suggesting that CAFE was good.
Enamoured I'm not, but it's better than nothing and it's ludicrous to claim it's had no effect on the efficiency of automobiles when automotive fuel efficiency has risen in practical lock-step with the standards set to it.

While taxing gas would have, as the CBO suggests, a great effect on fuel efficiency, it would also have a great effect on the rest of the economy, too. We're a geographically big country, after all. And so there might be some sense in Congress' choice to regulate the automobiles in order to get the changes in automobiles that they desired.

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IBCoupe wrote:Do I need to repeat myself for the third time?
No, I ignored your condescending, nasal whine the first two times.
IBCoupe wrote: it's ludicrous to claim it's had no effect on the efficiency of automobiles
I don't recall that happening.
IBCoupe wrote:...might be some sense in Congress' choice...
You're far more trusting of their capacity for pure, un-influenced logic than I am.

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AZhitman wrote:No, I ignored your condescending, nasal whine the first two times.
If I had feelings, that would have hurt. Try not ignoring the things I write; less effort is required to listen to me once than to ignore me fifty times. Just a friendly heads up.
AZhitman wrote:
IBCoupe wrote:it's ludicrous to claim it's had no effect on the efficiency of automobiles
I don't recall that happening.
Image
AZhitman wrote:I wouldn't credit the gov't with bringing about efficiency improvements.
Jesda wrote:And it wasn't CAFE that sent truck and SUV sales spiraling in 2008. It was fuel prices.

In other words, the market is mostly able to regulate itself by adjusting to changes in demand.
AZhitman wrote:^ What he said.
Jesda wrote:Perhaps, but the regulation itself is a nuisance rather than a contributor.
AZhitman wrote:Amen.
Should I go past the first page?
AZhitman wrote:You're far more trusting of their capacity for pure, un-influenced logic than I am.
Not at all. I just recognize that Congress has the same access to television as you do, and if somebody's out there telling us that one thing's the answer, I'm sure they've heard it.

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I'm not in the business of worrying about feelings - You of all people should know that about a 'nutbag' like me.

I don't think they're hearing the "other" side of the message - it's not profitable, it's not politically beneficial, and it goes against the GOB Network. Like I said, I'm surprised it's so entrenched (on both sides).

Maybe I should watch TV on occasion. ;)

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AZhitman wrote:Agreed - I suppose I just prefer that the "positive strides" come from the market, not mandates. I think policymakers severely underestimate the impact of "leading by example" and the power of word-of-mouth and social media in encouraging people to make the right choices, rather than simply codifying them into hard and fast rules.
Problem is we make poor leaders (The US) in the push towards fuel economy. We are one of the highest per capita energy consumers. And of the highest polluters, we have the largest population. In fact, you can add up the total energy usage of all the nations using more energy per capita than we do and we'd still more than double that. We might even triple it.

As for making hard fast rules, we have many. People still pollute. So why legislate at all? Because it does work. Its not 100%, nor is there a realistic expectation that it will be. Remove such laws and you'll probably find a lot of people will go right back to where we were. Using Social media and the like is certainly a good thing too. But it lacks teeth against those who simply don't give a rat's a**.
AZhitman wrote:For example, we recycle - a lot. I'm no environmentalist, I don't care about MMGW, there's no financial incentive for me to do so, and I think technology will advance and keep ahead of problems (such as landfill issues). By the same token, for example, I think people who buy bottled water are stupid (it seems ignorant and selfish to buy a 12oz bottle which I can slam in one swig, yet that bottle remains around for thousands of years). If my trash (cardboard, paper, aluminum, glass) can be capitalized upon by some company (which employs workers) and converted back into something good, then I feel good about separating our trash.
You don't think a lot of landfills started doing more environmentally friendly things on their own? There are plenty of regulations regarding landfills. The regulations primarily cover the issues that tend to be a burden on these companies. Now that methane recovery and recycling has become a significant method of revenue/loss mitigation, those aspects do not need as much regulation. At least not the kind that stimulates it. But maintaining these systems is still highly regulated. You can ask my neighbor who works at a landfill.

As for having no financial incentive to care about MMGW, of course you don't. You get to just pass it on to your kids and their kids. I'd bet if your kids were responsible for any debt you left behind when you pass, you'ld try and minimize or help avoid it being passed on altogether. One purpose of environmental regulations is so that we take responsibility for our waste. Unfortunately, we are already charged with taking on some of the burden from past generations already.
AZhitman wrote:As I've said before, it's far more environmentally-unfriendly to dispose of an older car and purchase a new one. As such, I wonder... If all of the resources of CAFE were re-appropriated into educational campaigns to teach people the TRUTH about the environmental impact of bringing a new car to market, assisting recyclers with getting used car parts BACK into the market, and perhaps even providing incentives for working-class people to KEEP their old car on the road (such as subsidized repairs and maintenance), might we not be better off? We've been led to believe that swapping that B210 for a new Prius is "good for the environment". That is a bald-faced lie that's perpetuated and accepted by people who don't know any better.
All products have some level of useful life. Old cars that have served their purpose are less likely to be more environmentally friendly to operate. New cars are going to continue to enter the market. Its inevitable. And most people who buy new cars sell or trade-in their old ones. Which means people aren't simply dropping their cars off at the local junkyard every time they buy a new car. That said, the amount of non-CO2 emissions spewed by older cars can be 100's of times higher than a new car. Some newer cars emit virtually none of the harmful gases. Others still emit absolutely no emissions. Is there energy involved in producing said product? Of course. But modern power generation minimizes these emissions as well.

As for incentives to keep cars on the road, there comes a point at which it just starts costing more money than its worth to keep a car running. From a purely practical standpoint, it makes zero sense to restore classic cars. But its made possible because they have value that exists for no other reason than the fact that we have an affinity for them. Problem is not everyone drives a classic car. Not to mention as cars get older, their numbers diminish. Finding parts can be a chore. Hell, I had trouble finding a manifold for a 01 Sentra. The part is discontinued (Tsunami in Japan destroyed the tooling) and they were rather difficult to locate in a junkyard. Took me three to find one and I just received it today.
AZhitman wrote:Certainly, automakers would oppose it, but it might even have an impact on the debt crisis many Americans have found themselves in. Cars are the #1 (NUMBER ONE) depreciating asset, and most are bought on credit, creating undue hardships that yet ANOTHER government agency is created to address... whoops.
Americans are spenders. Our economy is built on it. Its unlikely we're going to see much change in debt even if people end up keeping their cars on the road longer. I suspect it would actually put more pressure on younger kids to buy new as used car availability would lessen.
AZhitman wrote:So, to piggyback onto your earlier comment, "That its developed by a government agency does not mean anything. A great idea is a great idea and a bad idea is a bad idea regardless of who came up with it". Seems to me if you "follow the money", there's some deep pocketed "idea-makers" pushing CAFE. The independent free-thinker (which I somehow perceived you to be) might want to reconsider hitching their wagon onto that policymaker and simply CONSIDER that there might be alternatives to this supposedly "good idea".
I stated that to try and direct you to argue the merits of the CAFE regulations. The irony here is you supplemented the earlier irrelevant argument with another one. Put it this way Greg. Does it really matter who came up with the idea if you are trying to determine if the idea is good or bad? Nope. If I wanted to hear some cheerleading, I'd go read some of Howie's posts in Politics. ;)

As for alternatives, of course there are. One alternative would be to require manufacturers to build a car to specific specs as Matt jokingly suggested. Its a terrible idea, but it IS an alternative. In other words, the alternatives still have to be good ideas. Perhaps better than the plan we are effecting now. But that would indeed require dialogue and discussion of the actual merits of alternative ideas. Unless you are going to support it based solely on who thought of it...


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