How dangerous IS Iran?

[AZhitman]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp ... 2#39275802

Discuss.

Side notes - Who the hell is this host? (he totally sucks as a host, btw)

Who the hell is Glenn Greenwald?? At first, I mistakenly thought it was Mike Reagan - but Reagan has a spine.

And if this is such an issue for the Left, why aren't they hacking on POTUS for keeping the pressure on Iran?

[heliochrome85]

youhave to understand, if we overstate the case for iran, you strengthen the case the Right wing members of the israeli govermnet have been making. it would result in unilateral strikes by Israel on Iran, whcih last i checked, has parked missles via Hezbollah, in southern Lebanon.

Not to mention, we cant really talk about another war since we are doing so well in the two we are currently in.

tough teats as they say.

[heliochrome85]

there are a million other little reasons, but this is the one that comes to mind most significantly.

[mattblancarte]

This is how dangerous: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armed_Forc ... ic_of_Iran

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vNyAOrL6ZQ[/youtube]

There is absolutely no way that you can convince me that going to war with Iran is a good idea.

Edit: Forgot to mention... they have well-equipped and well-trained ground forces.

From what I understand about the ground fight in Afghanistan, our soldiers are running into veteran fighters (displaying modern tactics) that are simply without the aid of modern equipment. It seriously frightens me to think about the carnage that would take place in a modern ground war.

[AZhitman]

Be it known that I didn't ask for that reason. As Tariq will attest, I have become somewhat of an isolationist with regards to foreign conflict, especially with those crazy effers.

[heliochrome85]

ground forces dont mean anything these days. six drones could do more damage than 10,000 soldiers.

[audtatious]

We should not be the world police. If Iran wants nukes or anything else then who are we to stop them?

BTW, we are only in 1 war right now. Iraq is done.

[AZhitman]

ground forces dont mean anything these days. six drones could do more damage than 10,000 soldiers.

Yeah, I was gonna say, nothing in that video (or anything I've read) leads me to believe they'd be any harder to subdue / overwhelm than Iraq was.

With that said, do not want.

[mattblancarte]

ground forces dont mean anything these days. six drones could do more damage than 10,000 soldiers.

Ground forces still have their place on the battlefield. You're right that whomever commands the skies commands the war. No argument there.

[IBCoupe]

Here's another reason why we wouldn't want to invade Iran: God bless 'em, the Iranian people still like us.

And to address this very good question:

If Iran wants nukes or anything else then who are we to stop them?

Because that scenario quite probably comes with the same pitfalls as Tariq outlined with the "overstating the case against Iran" scenario, letting Iran have nukes is not the best option for us, for Israel, or for the world, in general. We've been doing okay with the India-Pakistan nukefest, but do we need to start up an Israel-Iran encore?

[stebo0728]

...it would result in unilateral strikes by Israel on Iran ...

^^ This. And might I add a "Hellz Yah" This is how we need to be conducting business over there in my opinion. Leave Israel unbridled, they will handle it.

[IBCoupe]

Because we don't catch enough heat now for being seen as allied with Israel, we might as well go ahead and make ourselves look like we're giving a rubber stamp of approval to their "anti-Muslim" actions, right?

[stebo0728]

Because we don't catch enough heat now for being seen as allied with Israel, we might as well go ahead and make ourselves look like we're giving a rubber stamp of approval to their "anti-Muslim" actions, right?

Theres a difference between condoning legitimate military action, and NOT condoning human rights violations. I think the latter of the 2 are far less prevalent than the former.

[HashiriyaS14]

They aren't dangerous at all, except perhaps as a rallying point for extremism and a potential source of terrorlst funding (less so than private Saudi citizens, however).

Everything we've seen out of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad has pointed toward the conclusion that they are very much concerned with their own continued existence and hold on power in Iran. They are not nice guys, but they aren't crazy warlords either, just self-interested dictators with a Machiavellian bent. For this reason, they sure as hell aren't going to start attacking Israel or any other such thing because this would lead inexorably to their own deposition. They WILL, however, posture repeatedly to the contrary, because it benefits their public image to be seen as antagonists of the West.

There is absolutely no reason for us to be entertaining military intervention in Iran, or is there any reason for Israel to be entertaining it. I firmly believe that neither party really is, but both parties have their reasons for seeming as if they are.


(This post was not a rebuttal of any other post in this thread, I didn't even read them, just my personal hack at the title).

[IBCoupe]

There's a hugely important difference, Stebo, you're right. My point is just that I don't think that kind of nuance will make it into worldwide discourse.

[Cold_Zero]

Where the F was everyone when Syria (suspected), South Africa (Fortunatly, South Africa has given up its nuke program) and Pakistan were building their Nuke program? Why is Iran in posession of a Nuke any more dangerous than these countries? Except for the proximity to Israel (syria the exception) and Iran's funding of Hezbollah.

Also, I highly doubt that Israel will strike the same way as they did in 1981 in Iraq. Especially since they have to fly over more airspace to hit this site. I would look for a more subtle attack (sabatoge?) than an air strike or a Saudi strike on the facility. Just sheer speculation. And a full scale invasion of Iran is just plain silly.

[AZhitman]

Everything we've seen out of Khamenei and Ahmadinejad has pointed toward the conclusion that they are very much concerned with their own continued existence and hold on power in Iran. They are not nice guys, but they aren't crazy warlords either, just self-interested dictators with a Machiavellian bent. For this reason, they sure as hell aren't going to start attacking Israel or any other such thing because this would lead inexorably to their own deposition. They WILL, however, posture repeatedly to the contrary, because it benefits their public image to be seen as antagonists of the West.

Makes sense.

I need to read a TON more about the history of these conflicts, because it just seems to me that we'd be best served by butting the hell out.

[stebo0728]

I COMPLETELY skipped over one of IB's posts here, and its important to emphasize about Iran. Most of Iran consider their leader a toolbag. They dont like him, and would not concur with any "global domination" ambitions he may possess. I think the key to dealing with Iran is to bolster her internal strife, to a point the people revolt and take out their own trash.

[AZhitman]

Didn't know that either.

The Iranians that I work with hold America in high regard... but then again, I always take the commentary of our H1B visa-holders with a grain of salt... I'm a little too "ugly American" for their taste, I'm sure.

[mattblancarte]

Here's another reason why we wouldn't want to invade Iran: God bless 'em, the Iranian people still like us.

I always think about the pre-1979 revolution era in Iran when this point comes up. They were quite westernized, and Sharia law was continually challenged up until that point.

Women in Iran used to wear skirts and get their hair "did." Now, they're forced to wear loose-fitting clothing and headscarves. I couldn't even imagine seeing civil rights being pushed backwards like that here in the US.

[Cold_Zero]

The Iranians that I work with hold America in high regard...

Here here! Iranians are great people. I even work with a guy who is a Zoroastrian, who emigrated from Iran. He is a fascinating individual and hates the current President of Iran. Ha!

It is also important for America to remember that the Iranian people are not Arabs, they do not speak Arabic (Farsi), they are predominantly Shi ite and they have a very old and rich culture Persian. It should also be pointed out that there are a lot of different ethnic and religious groups inside of Iran. Specifically Armenians, who happen to be the salt of the world.

Matt,
I think some of that has to do with Iran's higher literacy and education rates.

[AZhitman]

Specifically Armenians, who happen to be the salt of the world.

...and we're dead sexy, too.

[HashiriyaS14]

The United States gets a TON of Iranian immigrants, and has for a long time.

DC has a big population, and thus we also benefit from really good Persian food, lol. As Bud mentioned they are NOT Arabs and do not like being labeled as such, they are Persian.


Ahmadinejad's supporters are mostly rural and uneducated, but numerous. The average Iranian city dweller doesn't think much of him.

[IBCoupe]

Cold, I'd expect that Zoroastrian to be especially happy to be here, being that they get it especially bad in Iran. Almost like being a Jew.

[Watermelonwarrior]

The Iranians that I work with hold America in high regard...

Here here! Iranians are great people. I even work with a guy who is a Zoroastrian, who emigrated from Iran. He is a fascinating individual and hates the current President of Iran. Ha!

It is also important for America to remember that the Iranian people are not Arabs, they do not speak Arabic (Farsi), they are predominantly Shi ite and they have a very old and rich culture Persian. It should also be pointed out that there are a lot of different ethnic and religious groups inside of Iran. Specifically Armenians, who happen to be the salt of the world.

Matt,
I think some of that has to do with Iran's higher literacy and education rates.

They do. Im half Persian. My dad moved here when he was 14 basically homeless and has made it quite a long way from there. You will find most Persians are very educated and generally pretty successful people (my dad went to school for 13 years to get his doctorate while supporting the family). Its true we don't like to be called Arabs because the Persians are very proud of their culture/history which is different from Arabs. Imagine calling a Cuban or Puerto Rican mexican. You get a similar response.

Iranians love Americans. They might not like the US politics but Iranians want to be american. They listen to our music, they try and dress like we do. I was there back in 2001 and the hospitality is crazy. They know that you traveled around the world to visit their country and they really do go out of the way to accommodate you. Especially if your American. Trust me if you want hospitality it would be tough to beat how the avg person in Iran would treat you.

The way I see Iran, and their crazy president IMHO is that he sees the US and sees and thinks that we do some crazy stuff (start war in Iraq and Afghanistan when we shouldn't be there for example) and maybe he feels like the only way to talk to us is to essentially be as crazy? Think about it. We not only killed 300-400k people with the atomic bomb, but we are the more aggressive, largest military in the world and we are telling them they cant have it? What right do we have to tell them? If Russia, North Korea, Israel, Pakistan, and India can have it why cant they?

[HashiriyaS14]

What right do we have to tell them? If Russia, North Korea, Israel, Pakistan, and India can have it why cant they?

I might get raked over the coals for this, but I agree.

North Korea and Pakistan having nuclear capability scares me a whole lot more than Iran does.


That said, if there is going to be regime change in Iran, I'd prefer it to happen BEFORE they get the bomb, just because political destabilization + nuclear arms = ?????

This is why Pakistan worries me so much. Their government is so fragmented that no one knows WHAT they're going to do. Iran just wants them because Israel has them, which seems reasonable to me. Naturally, I don't think Israel ever should have been allowed to have it in the first place.

[heliochrome85]

both north korea and Pakistan are scarier than a nuclearized iran. mainly because both countries tend to get their panties in a twist more often than not. lets not kid ourselves here though, there are billions being spent by the saudis every year, 60 billion just this week, on US defense contracts. Why? To prevent any Iranian attack. Want more proof? It has been widely reported that the Saudi government has given secret authorization for the Israeli Air Force to use its airspace in the event of a preemptive tactical bombing to destroy iranian nuclear sites.

The saudi government is incredibly afraid of the spread of a Shiite bomb. Not only does it threaten the Saudi's sphere of influence (largely bought), but it also threatens the OPEC status quo.

[heliochrome85]

http://gizmodo.com/5648348/irans-advanc ... s-hilarity

[Cold_Zero]

Holy Crap, Shi ites with flying boats. This madness has to end NOW! Should have called these things 'Magic Carpets'
http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/09/ ... latestnews

Love to see what a CIWS or RIM-116 will do to one of these, in the Persian Gulf.

[stebo0728]

I want one!!