charlieo wrote:Of the GOP in America. Parties have died before.
That said, 2012 will be THE election for a GOP civil war. The Democrats will not have any public support, so splitting the GOP will not, unlike normally, guarantee an Dem victory.
I disagree. I think that, substantially, the fate of conservatism is tied directly to the Republican Party. The GOP is and has been an odd coalition of a number of otherwise-disparate groups (Southern whites, western libertarians, coastal capitalists, etc). No one faction within the GOP has the numbers to ever be a governing coalition on it's own, so if this coalition (i.e. the GOP) were to fall apart entirely, these groups would all be marginalized out of government by the huge and much more h0mogenous left. The left is fractured also, but far less so.
I'm not sure where you're getting this idea that the Dems will have zero public support in 2012. They may potentially add seats in both houses yet AGAIN in 2010, it is far more likely than not given any data that is available today.
The fact of the matter is that the Dems have the voting numbers to back up their big-spending agenda. There are lots and lots of educated white liberals, minorities, and other demographics out there who are 100% A-OK with 3+ trillion dollar budgets, nationalized health care, and so on. These people aren't *ever* going to get turned off to this stuff, they've been asking for it for years. These people will not be swayed to fiscal conservatism, they don't feel at all misled by Obama, they're getting just what they wanted. Railing against big and bloated government and high taxes isn't going to convert these people into conservative voters, as most of them make very little money OR make plenty but are comfortable paying half of it to the government to maintain a Euro-style welfare state.
Instead, conservatives' only avenue is to round up the same old coalition they've used for the last three decades. The only problem with this is that this coalition is badly fractured and dropping in headcount as the country generally becomes less white and less rural.
I'm not sure what the solution is then, for American conservatives. I don't see ANY solution that would involve the same GOP coalition ever governing again in the short term. I could *perhaps* see western Libertarians and capitalists allying themselves with potentially-alienated "Blue Dog" Democrats to form a new opposition party.
American conservatism is in a pickle.
EDIT: REALLY?!?! We edit out "h0m0" on this board? How many totally legitimate English-language words does that eliminate? I may as well just start making all of my posts in l33t5p34k.