Electoral Predictions 2008

[HashiriyaS14]

Each person gets ONE post in this thread. No commentary, no responses. I will enforce with deleting posts.

Post how you think each of the 50 States will vote, then add up the electoral votes on each side and reach a conclusion.

Feel free to back it up with commentary in your ONE post, but you aren't allowed to comment on anything anyone else has written. Just back up YOUR OWN CONCLUSIONS.

No stupid assumptions please. Obama isn't going to win Texas and McCain isn't going to win California or New York. I will delete posts with stupid assumptions, this is meant to be a serious prediction.

We'll refer back to this in November and see who had the highest percentage correct.

Here's mine: (feel free to copy and edit my state list)

Washington State (11) - ObamaOregon (7) - ObamaCalifornia (55) - ObamaAlaska (3) - McCainHawaii (4) - ObamaIdaho (4) - McCainNevada (5) - McCainArizona (10) - McCainUtah (5) - McCainMontana (3) - McCainWyoming (3) - McCainColorado (9) - ObamaNew Mexico (5) - ObamaTexas (34) - McCainNorth Dakota (3) - McCainSouth Dakota (3) - McCainNebraska (5) - McCainKansas (6) - McCainOklahoma (7) - McCainMinnesota (10) - ObamaIowa (7) - ObamaMissouri (11) - McCainArkansas (6) - McCainLouisiana (9) - McCainMississippi (6) - McCainWisconsin (10) - ObamaIllinois (21) - ObamaIndiana (11) - McCainMichigan (17) - ObamaKentucky (8) - McCainTennessee (11) - McCainAlabama (9) - McCainGeorgia (15) - McCainFlorida (27) - McCainOhio (20) - McCainWest Virginia (5) - McCainVirginia (13) - McCainNorth Carolina (15) - McCainSouth Carolina (8) - McCainMaryland (10) - ObamaDistrict of Columbia (3) - ObamaPennsylvania (21) - ObamaNew York (31) - ObamaMassachusetts (12) - ObamaVermont (3) - ObamaNew Hampshire (4) - ObamaMaine (4) - ObamaRhode Island (4) - ObamaConnecticut (7) - ObamaNew Jersey (15) - ObamaDelaware (3) - Obama

Total (538 Electoral Votes)

McCain Palin: 265Obama/Biden: 273

Winner: Obama/Biden

Rationale: I decided to give Florida, Ohio, and Virginia all to McCain. I gave Obama New Hampshire, Michigan, and Colorado. All these decisions were made via polls on RealClearPolitics as of right meow.

It'll be a CLOSE RACE, as everyone can see. If, for instance, McCain won New Hampshire and everything else stayed the same, Obama would drop under 270 but McCain would not get above, and the whole thing would have to get referred to the House.

If Obama wins Ohio or Virginia, it's all over.

Consequently, if McCain can grab Colorado, you get the same result.

It's going to be super, super close.

[Cold_Zero]

Dont laugh:

Obama11 Washington07 Oregon55 California05 New Mexico10 Minnesota07 Iowa21 Illinios10 Wisconsin04 Hawaii31 New York12 Mass04 Rhode Island07 Conn15 New Jersey03 Delaware10 Maryland03 DC03 Vermont04 MaineTotal 222

McCain03 Alaska04 Idaho05 Nevada10 Arizona 05 Utah03 Montana03 Wyoming34 Texas07 Oklahoma06 Kansas05 Nebraska03 North Dakota03 South Dakota08 Kentucky11 Tennessee11 Missouri06 Arkansas09 Louisiana06 Mississippi09 Alabama15 Georgia08 South Carolina15 North Carolina11 IndianaTotal 200

Battle Ground and Dead Heat States09 Colorado McCain17 Michigan Obama27 Florida McCain13 Virginia McCain05 West Virginia McCain20 Ohio McCain21 Pennsylvania Obama04 New Hampshire ObamaObama: 42 (264)McCain: 74 (274)

I have the following upsets:Colorado (could go the reverse and it would end up 273 to 265 in Obama's favor).Virginia (Military Vote)West Virginia (I think the 'We ain't going to vote for a black city slicker' vote may show strong).

[HashiriyaS14]

So Bud and I are the only two people on the NICO politics forum interested and dedicated enough to formulate our own original electoral predictions for this tremendously important Presidential Election?

Figures I guess, we're the only two Redskins fans. We're a higher quality breed, lol.

[AZhitman]

I'm not as educated on how each state has traditionally and historically voted... I run up against a couple that run counter to my prediction and go, "Huh?"

[szh]

So Bud and I are the only two people on the NICO politics forum interested and dedicated enough to formulate our own original electoral predictions for this tremendously important Presidential Election?

Figures I guess, we're the only two Redskins fans. We're a higher quality breed, lol.

I saw this thread a while back, and simply did not know enough about the likely outcome to post in it.

So, I didn't ...

Z

[Jesda]

This thread is silly and restrictive. Why in the world would I go to the trouble of typing out every state with electoral votes, especially without the option to discuss?

We should talk about which states are up for grabs, which states are being heavily spent on and visited, and which previously predictable states are now in play.

As for the Redskins, I don't even know what sport that is.

[HashiriyaS14]

This thread is silly and restrictive. Why in the world would I go to the trouble of typing out every state with electoral votes, especially without the option to discuss?

We should talk about which states are up for grabs, which states are being heavily spent on and visited, and which previously predictable states are now in play.

As for the Redskins, I don't even know what sport that is.

Alright, fair enough. I was thinking of doing this anyway once I noticed the paucity of people willing to fill out intact lists. I had only done that because of the "look at me I was right" factor that could be enjoyed later by those who make accurate predictions.

PA is inching ever closer to the "toss up" category, which is a little scary for those of us in the blue camp. There seems to be a lot of talk about your state, but I don't think MO is really part of any seriously credible path that Obama would be able to take to 270 votes.

I'm getting more enthusiastic about the prospect of VA though.

[AZhitman]

I think the VA vote will surprise you...

I envision the "silent majority" waking up on "The Day", hopping in their pickup trucks with their lunch pail and coffee thermos, stopping by the polling place, wordlessly dropping their vote for the JM/SP ticket, and heading off to work...

No "I Voted" sticker, no discussion on the Intarwebz, no media-influenced hoopla and outrage.

Just simple hard-working American men and women (the ones who "cling to guns and religion") making their voice heard - On the only occasion that really matters.

[Jimefam]

That maybe true although obama is currently besting JM with voters who make less than 50k. They might not like him being african american but at the end of the day being able to put something in that lunch pail might just be more important. Also dont forget obama also has an "ace" up his sleeve. The young vote backs Obama by a pretty good margin nationwide iirc and they are the least well represented group in the polls as many pollsters focus on "likely" voters. That usually means people that voted in the last elections.

[HashiriyaS14]

I think the VA vote will surprise you...

I envision the "silent majority" waking up on "The Day", hopping in their pickup trucks with their lunch pail and coffee thermos, stopping by the polling place, wordlessly dropping their vote for the JM/SP ticket, and heading off to work...

No "I Voted" sticker, no discussion on the Intarwebz, no media-influenced hoopla and outrage.

Just simple hard-working American men and women (the ones who "cling to guns and religion") making their voice heard - On the only occasion that really matters.

The only problem with all of that is that group of people is usually very well represented in the polls and, while they may not run bumper stickers, is very rarely a "surprise turnout" group. If they're going to turn out, you probably already know the extent in advance and thus the even-steven status of the VA race already reflects it.

Moreover, in the intensely military-dominated region of Hampton Roads and Norfolk, Obama actually appears to be AHEAD. Not just ahead of where Kerry and Gore were, but literally ahead of War Hero John McCain, by like 8-10%, which is just staggering.

Ironically, he seems to be having the most issues in NoVA, which he'll obviously win but maybe not by a wide enough margin. NoVA has become a little more conservative due in part just to all the Bush/Cheney administration people and lobbyists/lawyers who live there, although it's still, at it's core, a very liberal area.

Obama is undeniably doing better in central and southern VA than any of his Democratic predecessors, but that won't help him unless he can win NoVA by at least as wide a margin as those guys did. It will definitely be an interesting race, but not one that can be so easily and comfortably summed by counting on a "silent majority pickup truck and lunchpail set". Get in the details.

[AZhitman]

Time seems to disagree on VA, with McCain holding a 6% lead over BO in that state:

http://www.time.com/time/polit...n=yes

[Encryptshun]

4%, not 6%, but same difference.

EDIT* NM, you were citing the "with third-party candidates added in" statistic.

[HashiriyaS14]

Time seems to disagree on VA, with McCain holding a 6% lead over BO in that state:

http://www.time.com/time/polit...n=yes

Oh, statewide, absolutely. Depending on the poll it seems anywhere from dead-even to McCain +8. I think it's actually something like McCain +3 or 4.

He's definitely ahead, but it's also most definitely in play. I think it'll end up a red state when all is said and done, but it'll also be, IMO, the hardest-fought swing state in the election after Ohio, which would have been inconcievable 4 or 8 years ago when VA was firmly a Bush state.

EDIT: We're doing better in this thing than I think public sentiment reflects right now.

We're seriously contesting OH and VA, with Obama pegged as +5 in Ohio in the Quinnipiac poll yesterday.

We do not, however, need to win either state to get to 270 votes, if we can snag New Mexico (likely), Michigan (likely), New Hampshire (likely), and Colorado (maybe likely).

IMO, Colorado will be the NUMBER ONE MOST IMPORTANT state in this election. I think that VA and OH will be the most contested, but because of Obama's "alternative path to 270" I outlined above, Colorado is going to take on a new importance. Obama has been ahead there by a hair for awhile now, but while his lead didn't seem to get affected by Palin, it is also RAZOR thin.

McCain absolutely has to win Ohio, VA, and Florida to get to 270 votes, no exceptions. If Obama wins just one of these, even if he loses Colorado or NH, he'll be in the White House. It'll all be by hair-thin margins. I think this is the most entertaining election in a long time because of how many possible scenarios there are. It doesn't all come down to a single state.

[Jesda]

[96Qowner]

You can put Minnesota in McCain's column. Sarah Palin is one of them. No way they're gonna go for Obama anymore, especially with Franken in the race. Coleman's ads are destroying him.

[HashiriyaS14]

You can put Minnesota in McCain's column. Sarah Palin is one of them. No way they're gonna go for Obama anymore, especially with Franken in the race. Coleman's ads are destroying him.

LOL

Rasmussen had Obama up by EIGHT POINTS on 9/18. I'm not sure if I see Minnesota going red. It's a battleground, but I haven't seen McCain ahead in MN once this race, in any poll, ever.

Obama *will* win all the Kerry states, plus a layup in New Mexico. McCain will probably still take VA, FL, and OH. If Obama takes Colorado (as is looking increasingly likely), he'll take the election. Obviously, if he also takes VA, FL, or OH (or NC), it's game over for McCain.

[marlin29311]

I'm actually quite interested in the way that PA is going to turn out, considering some of the things that happend during the last election...

I'm also quite interested in the fact that the nation's demographics have changed in the past couple years...many people (based on US census data) have been moving to the borders of the country (people like sun and beaches, who would have thought), and i'm wondering if this is eventually going to affect the way that certian states swing...any thoughts?

ps - small thread jack - redskins stink. EAGLES!!!!

[96Qowner]

I'm jus' tellin' ya. I live on the border - I know these people.

Here's realclearpolitics numbers as of September 21st - 3% spread and 8% undecided. They're waiting to see how Sarah does in her debate.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c....html

Rasmussen's tracking poll shows a 3% spread as of yesterday.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co..._poll

But polls will be polls.

[HashiriyaS14]

I agree about PA, it's going to be important.

Obviously, Obama NEEDS to win PA in order to win the election, period. It's indeed uncomfortably close, but it usually is. I think he'll win it, but I also think he needs to spend more time campaigning there.

[Jesda]

Barack Obama should be doing much better. People associate McCain with the status quo, but apparently many will take a little more of the same over the alternative.

The Democrats should have earned more electoral votes in 2000 as well, considering President Clinton's popularity. Gore didn't even win his home state.

I'm just baffled by how poorly the Democratic Party has performed in the last eight years. After taking over both houses of congress, they have the lowest approval rating in US history.

Two parties chock full of suck.

[HashiriyaS14]

Quinnipiac released some new polls today that appear to show staggering shifts in Ohio and Florida as well as some marked Obama progress in Pennsylvania.

Even if these polls are skewed by 1-2 points, as they might well be, it's still huge news. Quinnipiac is a very respected poller, and so while ONE might somehow be an outlier, dismissing all three as such seems incredibly unlikely.

Here's the story on FiveThirtyEight:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com....html

The gist: (when there are multiples, I will list the more conservative)

Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 42 Florida: Obama 49, McCain 43Pennsylvania: Obama 48, McCain 43

The McCain camp is, understandably, a little disturbed by these polls, and here is their response:

http://www.politico.com/playbo....html

As the McCain campaign claims, the polls may be a *little* skewed, maybe 1-2 point, but the point is that Obama is still, with that adjustment, ahead in Ohio and Florida, which is new news.

This, coupled with a consistent and sustained lead in VA (albeit a narrow one), and the greater lead in Colorado puts the McCain camp in a very uncomfortable position electorally.

McCain is not going to win Michigan or Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania is a long shot indeed. McCain HAS to win Ohio AND Florida AND Virginia in order to beat Obama, and even then that won't be enough. He'd also have to win either NH, Colorado, or another state that's currently leaning towards BO.

[Jesda]

That's no surprise. Sarah Palin herself told Sean Hannity that the McCain/Palin ticket was in an underdog position. It is certainly not leading in polls.

[AZhitman]

Two parties chock full of suck.

None of this matters when the "silent majority" shows up.

We saw it with Bush / Gore. The talk, the chatter, the polls, the loudmouths on the street, wherever you went, the talk was Algore this, Algore that....

Then they all slept in, or did whatever it is that Lefties do when it's time to be someplace important.

[marlin29311]

Then they all slept in, or did whatever it is that Lefties do when it's time to be someplace important.

They're too busy rambling outside the voting stations and forget to go in...

[Jimefam]

I've been looking at the state polls recently and I really dont see a path for a mccain victory.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...ccain/

Before everyone goes crazy, I'm just saying what is his strategy here. He gave up on Michigan last night and is behind in almost every other swing state. Also every state that is a "swing" state was won by bush in 2004 by a comfortable margin. It seems he if very much on defense right now as he can not afford to lose a single swing state or he is done. What do you guys think?

[HashiriyaS14]

Yeah, things were a lot more even back before Ohio, Virginia, and Florida were all shown as leaning Obama.

I mean, Obama could TECHNICALLY win without any one of those, if he carries Colorado and NH, but at least then it was a close race.

I don't think for one minute that Obama will snag all three of big states, but I think he'll probably get at least one, and McCain can't lose ANY of them and retain any chance for the White House.

[HashiriyaS14]

WOW.

This was a nasty day of polling for John McCain, I don't know what to attribute it to, so I won't guess.

Anyway, I'll start with the more shocking polls:

FL: Obama +7 (Rasmussen)MO: Obama +3 (Rasmussen)NC: Obama +6 (PPP)NH: Obama +13 (SurveyUSA)PA: Obama +10 (Morning Call)NATIONAL: Obama +8 (Rasmussen)

Firstly, Rasmussen polling is reliable and respected but tends to skew ever-so-slightly conservative, so the above numbers in Florida and especially FRICKIN MISSOURI are a little nuts. Additionally, New Hampshire is one of the states McCain still wants to seriously contest, and even if the lead is still only 8-10, that's still a pretty serious lead for NoDrama.

Rasmussen has Obama +2 in VA, while Suffolk and SurveyUSA both have him in the double-digits. Even if we put it at +4 or +6 in reality (i.e. not totally split the difference), that's still a decent lead in a once-solid red state.

The only bright spot is a Rasmussen +1 in Ohio for McCain, although this is somewhat offset by an ABC poll that has Obama +6 there, so I'd assume a narrow Obama lead or a tie.

But, yeah, wow. Missouri? +6 in NORTH CAROLINA? Wow.

[telcoman]

WOW.

This was a nasty day of polling for John McCain, I don't know what to attribute it to, so I won't guess.

Anyway, I'll start with the more shocking polls:

FL: Obama +7 (Rasmussen)MO: Obama +3 (Rasmussen)NC: Obama +6 (PPP)NH: Obama +13 (SurveyUSA)PA: Obama +10 (Morning Call)NATIONAL: Obama +8 (Rasmussen)

Firstly, Rasmussen polling is reliable and respected but tends to skew ever-so-slightly conservative, so the above numbers in Florida and especially FRICKIN MISSOURI are a little nuts. Additionally, New Hampshire is one of the states McCain still wants to seriously contest, and even if the lead is still only 8-10, that's still a pretty serious lead for NoDrama.

Rasmussen has Obama +2 in VA, while Suffolk and SurveyUSA both have him in the double-digits. Even if we put it at +4 or +6 in reality (i.e. not totally split the difference), that's still a decent lead in a once-solid red state.

The only bright spot is a Rasmussen +1 in Ohio for McCain, although this is somewhat offset by an ABC poll that has Obama +6 there, so I'd assume a narrow Obama lead or a tie.

But, yeah, wow. Missouri? +6 in NORTH CAROLINA? Wow.

The attacks from Palin/McCain against Obama appear to be working against them.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI...mmend

That along with '"the economy is fundamentally sound" is going to be remembered for a very long time by many Americans.

Telcoman

[HashiriyaS14]

The attacks from Palin/McCain against Obama appear to be working against them.

Yeah, I think that might be at least part of it.

I WILL say again that, while I'm an Obama supporter, I do pay some attention to the Ayers thing, because that raises even my eyebrow, but I largely ignore the rest of it. Regardless of any legitimacy the claims may have though, going THIS negative THIS late probably isn't viewed very well by the public. He should have had Palin trot this stuff out from the very beginning, before the first debate, IMO.

Anyway, I think the biggest contributor to Obama's recent gains hasn't really been anything McCain has or hasn't done so much as it's just been the awful economic news. As the Dow continues to slide with rumors of a Euro financial crisis, this should only improve his position.

We'll see. I'm looking forward to the debates tonight, and to seeing McCain in his "town hall" element. I know it's historically been his strength, but if he gets tough detailed questions on the economy from voters, I'm not sure how he'll do.

[HashiriyaS14]

We spend a lot of time on this board talking about who we think is right. Let's leave that alone for a minute and, instead, talk about who is going to WIN, and WHY.

Looks like the debate performance didn't give McCain the "game changer" he was looking for.

Here, according to RCP, is a list of the current battleground states and how they lean:

Ohio: Obama +4Florida: Obama +3Nevada: Obama +3North Carolina: Obama +0.3Missouri: Obama +0.3Indiana: McCain +2.5Virginia: Obama +4.8Colorado: Obama +4.0

Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and New Hampshire have been moved to SOLID Obama. Montana has been moved to SOLID McCain.

Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Washington, and New Jersey are now "Leaning Obama" instead of toss-up. Georgia is now "Leaning McCain", as he has a solid 8-point lead there.

This is a BLEAK landscape indeed for Republicans, unless it somehow changes as a result of this last debate, which I think we can all safely doubt as the debate wasn't anything special.

If all the toss-up states were to vote the way they're currently polling, Obama would win in a massive 364-point Landslide, versus 174 points for McCain.

In order to have a chance to win the White House, McCain must, at a MINIMUM, win back the following states:

-Virginia-Florida-Ohio-North Carolina-Missouri-Nevada

If he wins back EVERY SINGLE ONE of those, he would STILL then need to additionally win in New Hampshire OR Colorado to take the election.

I will NOT go so far as to say that Obama has this in the bag. October Surprises DO happen, but that said, this is becoming a decreasingly close race, and that should alarm McCain supporters.