Electoral Predictions 2008

[Jimefam]

This means nothing!!! Just wait until the "silent, silent, invisible majority show up. " I'm just tellin ya they are waiting to see how Mccain does in his final debate.

[HashiriyaS14]

None of this matters when the "silent majority" shows up.

I think we have an issue with the general definition of the term "silent majority".

In general, this is a term given to a contingent of the population who votes but does not "express their opinion publicly", i.e. via bumper stickers, yard signs, yelling in the street, et cetera.

I will agree with you that this contingent is probably leaning McCain.

That said, the term is NOT talking about POLLS. This contingent of traditionally-conservative voters is one of the segments of the population BEST covered by polls. These people are already reflected in the poll numbers.

If anything, the big poll surprises will favor Obama, as many of the younger voters he has registered (well over a million nationwide) ONLY own cell phones and are thus not poll-able.

In regards to a "silent majority" in 2000, I'm not sure what you're talking about. GWB was AHEAD in polls nationally going into that election, but then it was GORE who won the popular vote in a "surprise". If anything, the silent majority was leaning Democratic.

You also live in a solidly conservative state. Of COURSE you're going to see more whooping and hollering from the Democrats. The Republicans don't *need* to whoop and holler to win your state, they can just do nothing and coast onward to sure victory.

Here in Maryland, I see a lot more whooping and hollering from Republicans. The minority in a given state tends to be the most vocal, just because they need to be.

[Jesda]

That said, the term is NOT talking about POLLS. This contingent of traditionally-conservative voters is one of the segments of the population BEST covered by polls. These people are already reflected in the poll numbers.

If anything, the big poll surprises will favor Obama, as many of the younger voters he has registered (well over a million nationwide) ONLY own cell phones and are thus not poll-able.

In 2000 Bush's DUI record was revealed just before the election, tilting the very latest polls in Gore's favor including Zogby and CBS.

As for younger voters, people my age simply do not vote. Guess who is lined up with me at the polling place? That's right, old folks.

The undecided voters will choose the next president, and I have no idea what they will be doing. I decided to vote third party.

[HashiriyaS14]

In 2000 Bush's DUI record was revealed just before the election, tilting the very latest polls in Gore's favor including Zogby and CBS.

As for younger voters, people my age simply do not vote. Guess who is lined up with me at the polling place? That's right, old folks.

The undecided voters will choose the next president, and I have no idea what they will be doing. I decided to vote third party.

That's all well and good, but my point stands about the misuse of the term "silent majority".

Youth turnout has indeed under-delivered in every recent election. Luckily, it isn't really being counted on in the current polls, as they don't account for people who don't have land-line phones.

Old folks are going to take a look at their 401k statements and vote Obama, lol. Did you see Charlie Crist's comments on his willingness to help the McCain campaign in Florida? He sees the writing on the wall.

[HashiriyaS14]

This just in, Obama is officially ahead in Missouri.

Rasmussen has him up 3 and SurveyUSA has him up 8, split the difference at 5.5

Thanks for that Barr vote Jesda! Keep it up!

[HashiriyaS14]

Early Voting Results!

Obama appears to be dominating in the early voting in several key swing states, including Ohio and even North Carolina!

Early voters tend to be older and more often male than other voters, which means even more for the Obama campaign.

I know he won't win Georgia, but still, this is hella encouraging in Ohio, NC, and NM:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com....html

SEVEN national polls (Newsweek, ABC/Post, Democracy Corps, Research 2000, Battleground, Gallup, CBS News) currently show Obama with a double-digit national lead. McCain would have to eclipse this and then some in order to win electorally.

I hope your boy is on point in the debate tonight, for your sake.

[Jesda]

I hope your boy is on point in the debate tonight, for your sake.

My vote was earned by only one candidate this time, and it wasn't John McCain. I see no reason to reward the party with the lowest-rated presidency in decades (GOP) or the lowest-rated congress in history (you folks).

[Jesda]

Thanks for that Barr vote Jesda! Keep it up!

Are you implying that I should reward the GOP for doing such a "great" job? If Barr wasn't on the ballot, you can be sure that I'd stay home. It is, if anything, an "extra" vote.

[HashiriyaS14]

Are you implying that I should reward the GOP for doing such a "great" job? If Barr wasn't on the ballot, you can be sure that I'd stay home. It is, if anything, an "extra" vote.

I was really just trying to be funny.

In all seriousness, I wanted to point out that, by one means or another, a former prospective GOP voter (yourself) has become something other than a GOP voter.

I'm not even trying to postulate why this might be. It could be something John McCain has said or done, it could be the nomination of John McCain himself, it could be something Bush 43 did, it could be anything. I'm not going to attempt to climb inside your head, it's a scary place filled with pants and curry.

I just wanted to demonstrate that, be it recently or sometime over the last eight years, the GOP has lost your vote. They lost mine too.

EDIT: The "your boy" comment was not directed at you (Jesda). I'm well aware of who you're supporting.

For what it's worth, I'll probably actually vote Libertarian this go-round also, simply because I live in a 100% safe Democratic state and Obama doesn't "need" my MD vote, so I'd rather try and contribute to Barr getting 5% of the vote and, thus, added legitimacy for the Libertarian party.

[Jesda]

Actually, 2004 was the only time the GOP won my Presidential vote. I voted Libertarian for president in 2000. In a handful of local and statewide races I voted Republican.

I'm technically a member of both parties, because there's a sliver of libertarian empathy inside the Republican party (most of it from Ron Paul).

In 2004 the Democrats were shrill, obnoxious, and the not-so-far-left had no problem hating a version of America that didn't fit into their socialist utopia.

[sanioll]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...ccain/

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Here you may see the state voting history as well; change years.http://www.270towin.com/

[Vista Sucks!]

Here in VA things aren't looking so good as far as the economy goes. As a result, I keep hearing more and more people talk about voting for Obama and fewer and fewer for McCain.

I don't make predictions about things I don't know about, but I do know my home state of Virginia. And it looks like this state is going to go to Obama.

[HashiriyaS14]

It definitely appears that VA will go Obama, and it appears to be a stronger potential Obama state than either Ohio or Florida, which is of staggering historical importance.

Anyway, who's been following things lately? A great deal has happened in the last week or so.

The race, nationally speaking, is indeed tightening, as races tend to do near election day (Clinton went from +17 to +8 in 1996 in a month).

McCain has apparently ceded Colorado, which is HUGE news. There are reports today that he is no longer focusing on the state, likely due to money issues (he's only got $47 mil left).

Even bigger news is that PENNSYLVANIA is now a *necessary* GOP state according to their own strategy, which seems to me like madness.

Obama is up by double-digits in PA, as high as +17 according to some polls, putting the state in "Solid Dem" territory. What do people think about his risking everything on his ability to turn PA towards the GOP?

Obama's outspending him on PA ads by an order of magnitude, he's got ten times the ground game and a seemingly insurmountable lead.

Is pulling out of Colorado in favor of a hail-mary in PA indicative that McCain's campaign realizes that victory is essentially unattainable at this point save some hugely improbable turn of events?

Do people think this is a smart strategy? He MUST be doing this because he expects to lose VA, otherwise he'd have left PA alone and focused on Colorado, wouldn't he?

[AZhitman]

Honestly, I wonder how much it really matters. Seems to me like the "undecideds" are kinda the "slow kids" who probably won't vote anyway.

I just keep thinking of all the good work they could do with the money that's benig pissed away.

[HashiriyaS14]

I just keep thinking of all the good work they could do with the money that's benig pissed away.

If it helps any, it could be argued that campaign spending amounts to something of an economic stimulus package, albeit a very focused one.

It's not like the money just disappears, it goes to television networks, printing companies, landlords for offices, et cetera. At least it isn't going to Saudi Arabia.

Any thought on McCain's decision to cede Colorado? That's a HUGE deal, Colorado has been a safe GOP state for years, proof that W may have created such immense discontent so as to completely redraw the electoral map for a long time to come (CO, VA, maybe NV and MO)

[Jesda]

Ive always thought of CO as GOP-lean, not GOP safe. I suspect we are seeing a short-term shift. Carter won the south and east but lost all of the west.

[Vista Sucks!]

Honestly, I wonder how much it really matters. Seems to me like the "undecideds" are kinda the "slow kids" who probably won't vote anyway

Why are you calling me slow? I don't think I deserved that kind of name calling.

[AZhitman]

Why are you calling me slow? I don't think I deserved that kind of name calling.

Don't mind me, I'm the last person who should be calling anyone "slow".

Notice I prefaced that with "seems to me", which implies opinion.

Also, it was a broad generalization... I had no way of knowing that you, personally, are an 'undecided'.

Welcome aboard!

[AZhitman]

If it helps any, it could be argued that campaign spending amounts to something of an economic stimulus package, albeit a very focused one.

It's not like the money just disappears, it goes to television networks, printing companies, landlords for offices, et cetera. At least it isn't going to Saudi Arabia.

You're not allowed to invoke "trickle-down". That's OUR domain.

[HashiriyaS14]

You're not allowed to invoke "trickle-down". That's OUR domain.

LOL!

[Vista Sucks!]

I guess the silent majority voted for Obama.

I told you guys I knew my home state of Virginia.

[HashiriyaS14]

I guess the silent majority voted for Obama.

I told you guys I knew my home state of Virginia.

Yep, just like Begala (I believe) postulated early yesterday evening. There is still a "silent majority", but nowadays, at least in the swing states, that silent majority is Democratic.

The guys taking their lunch pails and going in to work voted for Barack Obama, the people on military bases in VA voted for Barack Obama, and so on. Furthermore, millions of "Joe the Plumbers" voted for Barack Obama.

[Encryptshun]

^ Werd, Hash.

And the sad thing is that, in the mind of certain folks (and quite a few of them), every single person who cast a ballot for Obama did so either because they were duped or because they are dumb.

[HashiriyaS14]

And the sad thing is that, in the mind of certain folks (and quite a few of them), every single person who cast a ballot for Obama did so either because they were duped or because they are dumb.

It's always the easiest and weakest route for the loser to convince themselves that they lost because the winner was stupid.

In this case, the losers lost because they just disagree with too many others on too many issues. They have forced themselves into being a rigid ideological minority and now they have paid the electoral price for it.

Reinvention time.

[Encryptshun]

As with most things, we need look no further than Civilization IV for answers...

"Convert to Obamanism?"

- Yes, Let's Get the Revolution Started! (1 Turn of Anarchy)- No, the Old Ways Are Best- Let's See the Big Picture