Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking

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s0m3th1ngAZ
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MinisterofDOOM wrote: I do agree with you that it's not likely we'll encounter intelligent life from other worlds unless we continue to live for billions of years. But when you weigh the length of time (probably about 4 billion years) it took life on earth to reach the point we're at now (notably NOT a spacefaring species) versus the generally accepted theoretical age of the universe (about 14 billion years) and the amount of that history that would have supported fully-formed ("settled" and consistent) star systems, the amount of leeway is pretty narrow. Other species would have to have gotten even more "lucky" than we did. It is possible, but not particularly likely. For some scope, though, consider that, geologically (earth-specific, of course), mammals are a very recent development and humans even more recent. What if an earlier species had managed to take the advanced path we did...earth might have had intelligent, spacefaring inhabitants tens or even hundreds of millions of years ago. There IS enough "leeway" in the history of universal formation for spacefaring races to have arisen. But it doesn't seem likely that any of them would be anywhere near enough that we might encounter them...at least until we're able to leave our own tiny corner of our own tiny galaxy in ITS own tiny corner of the universe.
Yeh that's my whole point. Time and distance is the issue. You have to have two highly unlikely organisms develope at just the right time in order for their paths to cross. That window varies of course and I won't even begin to predict what it may be. Life is a very fragile thing...and the universe is a very dangerous place. We may have the technology some day to protect us from a supernova... but supernovas and other cosmological events are a relatively common occurance. So the fact that we are still here...Earth in general is a huge thing. The only argument that makes sense to me for Intelligent design is this very fact. Mathematically...the human species is a near infinite-outlier.
My only other explanation is you are all figments of my imagination and this is a simulation. My real "brain" is a collection of data bits on a light-year size supercomputer filled with every species that's ever been.


Alfador
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Assuming relativistic limitations on matter and light cannot be overcome (and let's face it, no Sci-Fi faster-than-light theory really has any solid science behind it), even two space faring civilizations would have to be pretty close to each other, just in the scope of our own galaxy, in order to stand a chance of even becoming aware of each-other before one of them disappears.

While the chances of other life existing are obscenely high, and the chances of other intelligent life existing are in my mind at least decent, the chances of TWO independent, intelligent civillizations from different parts of space actually coming in contact with eachother are astronomically low.

Exploration seems to come in waves of rapid expansion followed by luls. I suspect that if a civilization did discover a way to travel at speeds enabling interstellar travel to be a practicality, their expansion would be pretty rapid at that point. The process generally goes expansion, followed by a limit imposed by technology (nothing left explorable with current knowledge/tools, followed by new technology and tools, followed by more expansion, and so on.

Personally I'm happy knowing that life is probably out there, and happy never encountering it. Human history shows that two intelligent civilizations can rarely get together without one taking a beating. Let's face it, as different as an alien race might be, to make it that far, self preservation would have to be a trait they carry. I fail to see the possibility of any intelligent species, capable of communicating with us, that wouldn't see the unknown as a potential threat.

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s0m3th1ngAZ
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Alfador wrote:
While the chances of other life existing are obscenely high, and the chances of other intelligent life existing are in my mind at least decent, the chances of TWO independent, intelligent civillizations from different parts of space actually coming in contact with eachother are astronomically low.
That pretty much sums up my whole rambling posts. I, however, believe FTL travel WILL be possible someday...for the simple fact that the universe is expanding faster than the speed of light since the big-bang. The physics are out there...we just need to figure them out and utilize them.

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Chaotic_Warlord
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93coupe wrote:I hope they dumb it down. The last science thing I watched was about string theory. That s*** hurt my brain.
http://www.strings.musser.com/Strings/Welcome.html

As stupid as i am when it comes to math, I seem to have a pretty good grasp of physics and the theory of relativity. Probably because it's more science than it is math. Not to mention of good at calculating point of impact, rate of speed, and time to distance in my head, this coming from a guy who can't understand Algebra or complex math.

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Hawking frets about dangerous aliens, but NASA has already sent them an invitation

Fri Apr 30, 12:05 PM
By Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - Cosmologist Stephen Hawking says it is too risky to try to talk to space aliens.

Oops. Too late.

NASA and others already have beamed several messages into deep space, trying to phone extraterrestrials.

The U.S. space agency, which two years ago broadcast the Beatles song "Across the Universe" into the cosmos, on Wednesday discussed its latest search strategy for life beyond Earth.

"The search for life is really central to what we should be doing next in the exploration of the solar system," said Cornell University planetary scientist Steve Squyres, chairman of a special National Academy of Sciences panel advising NASA on future missions.

The academy panel is looking at 28 possible missions, from Mars to the moons of Jupiter and Saturn. And NASA is focused mostly on looking for simple life like bacteria in Earth's solar system rather than fretting about potential alien overlords coming here.

Just days ago, Hawking said on his new TV show that a visit by extraterrestrials to Earth would be like Christopher Columbus arriving in the Americas, "which didn't turn out very well for the Native Americans."

The famous British physicist speculated that while most extraterrestrial life will be similar to microbes, advanced life forms would likely be "nomads, looking to conquer and colonize."

The comment reinvigorated a three-year debate roiling behind the scenes in the small community of astronomers who look for extraterrestrial life, said Seth Shostak, a senior astronomer at the SETI Institute, which looks for aliens. Should astronomers ban purposeful messages into the universe for fear of attracting dangerous aliens?

Shostak maintains it really does not matter, saying that approach is unnecessarily fearful.

While some people think broadcasting into the universe is "like shouting in a jungle, not necessarily a good idea," Shostak asked, "Are we to forever hide under a rock? That to me seems like no way to live."

There is a big difference of opinion in astronomy about the issue, said Mary Voytek, a senior astrobiology scientist at NASA headquarters.

"We're prepared to make discoveries of any type of life, of any form," Voytek said in a NASA teleconference. Much of the search for intelligent life is privately funded, by groups like SETI, she said.

About 20 years ago, NASA held a conference on this issue. Back then, most of the experts were worried about attracting the wrong type of aliens, said Christopher Kraft, the former NASA Johnson Space Center director who created Mission Control.

But Kraft, a NASA legend who received a lifetime achievement award Wednesday from the Smithsonian Institution, said he would welcome aliens. "I might just learn something," he said.

The SETI Institute in Mountain View, California, takes a passive approach, listening for any signals from aliens.

For more than a quarter of a century, however, various groups have been purposely sending out signals to other worlds. The most famous was a three-minute broadcast from the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico in 1974, Shostak said.

The Canadians made a series of broadcasts using a Ukrainian antenna in the 1990s. The now-defunct Team Encounter of Houston and a prominent Russian astronomer made public and distinct "cosmic calls" out to the universe, including one just from teenagers.

NASA beamed "Across the Universe" to the star Polaris in 2008 to promote the space agency's 50th anniversary, the 45th anniversary of the Deep Space Network and the 40th anniversary of the Beatles song. And the same year, as part of the publicity for the remake of "The Day the Earth Stood Still," the movie was broadcast to the stars, Shostak said.

Four NASA deep space probes — Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 — carry plaques and recordings that say hello from Earth and give directions on how to get here. Those probes launched in the 1970s are at the edges of the solar system.

And that is on top of the broadcasts Earth inadvertently sends into the cosmos as part of daily life: radio and TV signals, airport and other radar communications.

"That horse left the barn a long time ago," Squyres said, speaking from an astrobiology conference in Houston. "Whether you do it intentionally or not, the signals are out there."

Massachusetts Institute of Technology planetary scientist Sara Seager does not think much of the broadcasts to space, because so far they are pointed at random, not toward potential Earth-like planets.

"We wouldn't even know where to send our message, it's so vast out there," Seager said. That will change in a few years when new telescopes will be able to find terrestrial planets that could support life.

Even then, Seager said any aliens coming to Earth probably would be so advanced they would not need to hear our message to find us. It would not be like Columbus stumbling upon on the New World, she said.

"If they have the capability to come here, they're probably to us as we are to ants on Manhattan," said former NASA sciences chief Alan Stern.

The closest any aliens could be is a few tens of light years away. With one light year equaling about 5.9 trillion miles, that means it would take them generations to get here travelling at the speed of light, Shostak said. And even that would be unlikely, he added.

Frank Drake, who did the first modern experiment looking for extraterrestrial intelligence, estimated there are about 10,000 intelligent civilizations in the universe, while the late Carl Sagan figured it was closer to a million, Shostak said.

Given how big the universe is, our nearest intelligent neighbour is more likely about 5,900 trillion miles away, he said.

"God has nicely buffered us," he said.

___

On the Net:

SETI: http://www.seti.org

Astrobiology 2010 Science Conference: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/meetings/abscicon2010/

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"Well, ya see, I'm not saying that I've been everywhere and I've done everything, but I do know it's a pretty amazing planet we live on here, and a man would have to be some kind of FOOL to think we're alone in THIS universe. "

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Mr1der
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my .45 and robusto say ET can suck my diiiiiiiiiiiiiiick


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