Cali dreaming

Post by **sixxdeuce** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

gabossie wrote:Despite all the crap we have to put up with here, no matter where I go in life, I'll always come back to Santa Cruz. Nowhere in the world like it.

You ever been to Arcata or isla vista? Both places have atmosphere very similiar to santa cruz, super laid back. the weather is a little different in each place but the people are the same.

Post by **kamikazestorm420** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

i live in so cal .. its not that krazy

Post by **POS_S13** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

dr!ft wrote:I live in Ukiah and spent the last week at Sea Ranch. It's a little place on the coast where you rent out houses and such. The best part? The ride over. Highway One is such an awesome rode to drive on! Although I wasn't the one driving, I went my with my brother in his turbo MR2.

i work in hopland and live in santa rosa, i hit up hwy 1 so many times last summer, some great twisties over there. my route is usually start in cloverdale on hwy 128, then take mountain view road(about 30miles and lotsa twisties

yay) then it ends up on hwy 1 and i ride that to sebastopal. along 1 you can get to see some of the best shots of the ocean, defintly one of my favorite hwy's

Post by **dr!ft** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

POS_S13 wrote:i work in hopland and live in santa rosa, i hit up hwy 1 so many times last summer, some great twisties over there. my route is usually start in cloverdale on hwy 128, then take mountain view road(about 30miles and lotsa twisties yay) then it ends up on hwy 1 and i ride that to sebastopal. along 1 you can get to see some of the best shots of the ocean, defintly one of my favorite hwy's

Whoot! I love Mountain View Drive. Such a fun road. And yeah, Hwy 1 is incredibly scenic. When we went over to the coast on the 13th, there wasn't a cloud in the sky. It was so beautiful! Eastside Road out of Hopland is pretty fun as well. Another great one is Mountain House Road (I think...). Starts in Hopland, then continues to Hwy 128.

Post by **Zydeco** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Ok, enough w/all the drive talk...Lets set a date to go on a freakin drive.

Post by **The Mic** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

this thread should be renamed "Socal dreaming"

Post by **dr!ft** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

-]sTm[-HeavyHips wrote:Ok, enough w/all the drive talk...Lets set a date to go on a freakin drive.

Well, this weekend I'll be getting a new 91 SE coupe, (:D) so untill then, be patient! But I will definetly be looking for some good driving once I do get it. Within a week, AGX's and S-tech's will be going on, along with a nice set of wheels...

Post by **masticatingcow** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

wangless wrote:i love this place... its like one of the few places where you can hit the beach and the mountains in the same day !

:Werd

You know, I used to whine about living in CA, what with the man always so interested in what you're driving. Still, you can't beat the weather, the people, and all the stuff to do. So I kind of made peace with the fact that I just have to be a little extra creative about what I do with my car. It's really not so bad.

Oh yeah, and our cops can beat up your cops. LOL.

Post by **D1SR240** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Yea you Cali people are lucky, here in Illinois it rains quite a lot, it the weather is ok sometimes, but there's hardly a day when you can look up at the sky and not see a cloud. and there really isn't much car related stuff around here, so to all you cali people, treasure it while you can.

Post by **Zydeco** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Pics like this make me love cali even more

Post by **dr!ft** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Nice pics. That's Lake Berryessa right? I went camping / wakeboarding there a few years ago. Nice place, I liked it a lot more than Lake Mendocino...

Post by **Jala47** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Doesnt NOPI take place in ATL?....

Post by **wangless** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

nice pics

Post by **KDashy** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Yeah, California is beautiful, but Los Angeles in general is crap. I have to drive quite a distance to go anywhere serene or quiet.

Post by **RagingPanda** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

i stayed in Cali last yr with someone for da week. It was in Orange County...pretty damn nice.

Post by **wangless** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

certain parts of orange county are nice... some are pretty bad

. a good place to visit while in cali... monterey bay for the HUGEASS aquarium they have

Post by **The Mic** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

newport for me(Strained high pitch note voice)Californiaaaa... CaliforniaaaaaaAAaaa......

Post by **TachyonS14** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

SoCal is awsome. I live in Riverside, so 45 min to the beach, 45 min to palm springs, 45 min to L.A. and a little over an hour to the mountains, and an hour away from San Diego I love it!

Post by **DAEDALUS** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Bah, the cost to live here can bite me, and it does. My $.02: I live in a not-so-great neighborhood--not quite ghetto, but close to it. There is a 2-bed, 1-bath house for sale about 100 feet from where I live. It's about 60 years old. They're asking $490,000 for it. Even IF you could scrape together a 20% downpayment (~$100k), the mortgage on the loan would be about $2500/month. HELLOOOO!!!! $2500 PER MONTH!!! Who the heck can afford that? Who can afford that AND is willing to live in a 2-bedroom? F'ed the F- up I tells ya. I'll be so happy when this freaking real estate bubble bursts.

Post by **gabossie** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

S13GUY wrote:this thread should be renamed "Socal dreaming"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA....oh, you weren't joking? :pface I love socal (Claremont to be exact - East LA County), but it will never replace the bay area (Monterey bay area). I even have a great little 600 sqft studio appt up against the foothills that I only pay $450 a month for, and I still would rather be in Santa Cruz. IF I can afford it when I graduate, I'll move back, but chances are I'll be down here for awhile seeing as I couldn't afford to live in a cardboard box in SC.:help

Post by **The Mic** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

yeah ive been up there, my cousin currently attends UCSC

Post by **Anand** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

DAEDALUS wrote:Bah, the cost to live here can bite me, and it does. My $.02: I live in a not-so-great neighborhood--not quite ghetto, but close to it. There is a 2-bed, 1-bath house for sale about 100 feet from where I live. It's about 60 years old. They're asking $490,000 for it. Even IF you could scrape together a 20% downpayment (~$100k), the mortgage on the loan would be about $2500/month. HELLOOOO!!!! $2500 PER MONTH!!! Who the heck can afford that? Who can afford that AND is willing to live in a 2-bedroom? F'ed the F- up I tells ya. I'll be so happy when this freaking real estate bubble bursts.

Soooooo true... when I bought my house, I thought I bought it at a very high price...

now my house is worth 150k (at the least) more than what I bought it at... happy about that.

BUT... the real estate market here will come down... as soon as the interest rates go up.. the prices will come down.. I just hope people who bought it at the highest won't loose their houses when that happenes.....

Post by **DAEDALUS** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

I don't see how we can avoid wall-to-wall foreclosures. So many people have adjustable rate mortgages, interest-only mortgages, HELOCs, etc. If employment/income were to grow faster than inflation/interest rates then maybe everyone will be alright. But I forsee a recession within 4 years after a period of increasing inflation, and definitely not better income growth than interest rate growth. I did some calcs that are mindblowing:If 30-yr rates were to rise to 9%, that is a big deal. My monthly payment would be 46% more than what it is right now. This is the reason I think property values would have to come down if interest rates rise much. Very few buyers could afford to pay 46% more per month for their houses; likely none would be willing to. *Even a 2% rise in interest rates means a 23% rise in 30-yr payments.* Historically speaking, 7% fixed is low. Rates in the 80s were double digits nearly the entire decade, and around 20% in the '70s.The flipside to increasing rates is that at some point you might be earning more on your savings account than what you're paying on your fixed mortgage. That would be interesting. We mght have to reallocate fundage at that point. In 2000 short term CDs at the credit union were paying 7%! Of course, taxes on both sides favor paying off the mortgage, even with a 2% spread.I'm always up for crunching numbers.

Post by **Anand** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

very informative.... some good info there.... I'm glad I don't have an intrest only loans..

I know my dad sold his house to someone with intrest only... he basically took out 2 loans because he didn't have the DP... my God... there definetly will be a lot of foreclosures... everyone is predicting that.. THAT will be the time to invest in So Cal realestate!

Post by **flyfishz** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

checking out the post way ^ about the lake berryessa road... That has to be one of the best drives in the world!! I grew up in Napa and used to cruise my bikes and my TR6 up there... Absolutley incredible!!

There is no place in the world that I would rather live than Nor Calgreat weather 330 days a year. 1 hour to beach 2 hours to mountains, and despite what you have been told or heard ... great cops. Got stopped for driving on the side walk in Sonoma for a block to get around some traffic.. let go Stopped for wheeling throgh Hyw29 on trower by justin... stopped and let go and just last year rolled up on a CHP doing 110 in the benz, stopped and let go... Be respectful and ask for a break... works for me... Anyway, That Berryessa drive is awesome if any of you guys ever get out here...

Post by **flyfishz** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

DAEDALUS

Black240

Nothing personal... but leave the mortgage advice to us experts... been in the biz for nearly 20 years.

There will not be a rash of Foreclosures any more than the sky will fall or Cali will be an island anytime soon cause the "big one hits..."

Money is made in realestae by leveraging... the more the better if you can pull the strokes.

Example: I put a guy in a house 12 months ago for $402,000. Zero down interest only. He just sold it for $565,000. He did not even paint it!... He lived in that house for 12 months paying 1600 a month. The house saved him about 9000 on his taxes so it really cost him about $850 a month

I could write volumes on what is wrong with your financial model above... but really just don't feel like taking the time...

Money is made in real estate through appreciation not paying down principle. If an interesr only allows you to afford an additional 100k in buying power it will far offset the meager princple reduction you might acheive in virtually every market. By the same token the small principle reduction you will see in the first 10 years of your loan will not be enough to matter in a declining value market.

Post by **DAEDALUS** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

I didn't mean to sound like an alarmist, or that I thought half the population would lose their homes. Just that the % of forclosures will rise in the coming several years and be higher than they've been in over a decade if not much longer. And that property values will drop, as cyclical markets always do. Your only argument assumes a rising housing market. With nearly 20 years of experience do you not recall the housing market crash of the early nineties? Foreclosures peaked then. What if this same client of yours bought in 1989? He would not be selling a year later for 40% more! He might have broken even in 1995. I do know three people who became millionaires by levaraging--call it luck or skill, but all of them got in at or near the bottom of the uptrend in the market. I agree real estate is a great way to make money for the skillful. But like anything, only appreciating assets sell for more. A highly leveraged person who finances an expensive home at a low, floating interest rate is taking above average risk. On what grounds do you assume the housing market will continue to rise over the next four years? Do you not agree that inventory has climbed dramatically in the past couple months, and that time-on-market is rising as well? Not a coincidence it happened after rates rose about 1% from their lows. Do you suppose we will see lower rates than what we just saw anytime in the next 10 years?I have nothing against leveraging. Rest assured I believe in real estate over the long term. I'm just not willing to risk being upside down for 6 years after a slump, waiting for when I can break even. Real estate is cyclical...I am betting on my opinion that we are far closer to a top than to a bottom.

Post by **flyfishz** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

Interest rates absolutley effect the housing market as do jobs, climate, quality of education, and forien investing.

"industry standard" acceptable time on the market is in the neighborhood of 40 days... not the rampant 24 hour multiple offer market we have seen in the past 6 months. Yes inventory is climbing slightly. But it is unrealistic that we should expect to maintain the 40%+ annual appreciation we have seen in the "affordable " home price range.

I see nothing in the 4 year forecast to suggest lower interest rates that what we saw in the past 12 months, by the same token, I dobught we are going to be seeing 9%fixed anytime soon either.

Compared to the real esate "crashes" we have seen in the past the finanance industry as a whole is far better equiped to protect homeowners against rinig rates with flexible payment options.

Contrary to some beleif... the bank never wants the property.. they just want to get paid...they will go out of their way to make sure that happens

Post by **hybrid_flyer** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

teriyakibroccoli wrote:uh.. are you guys joking? Have you ever heard of 91, smog ref, LAPD, CHP, CARB.. 8.25%, .. sound familiar to you? it sucks **** out here. There's gotta be a mountain pass you can drift somewhere.. so what if all the events are in cali? Yee-haw.. we still have to put up with the other crap.

he's totally got it right. however if you do know the right roads then driving in ca can be a lot of fun. If anybody lives in the Bay Area hit me up, I can tell you of a few roads you might not know about. Some are barely wide enough for one car and are surrounded by trees, but dam are they fun to drive. Also motorcycle riders are good to know, they always know where the windy roads are :p

Post by **Zydeco** » Sat Jun 19, 2004 2:35 pm

read the first page, we talked about a north bay meet soon.

Cali dreaming

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