Why Syria's Maybe the Most Important Revolution in the M.E.

[heliochrome85]

“Après moi, le déluge” - King Louis XV of France

The country of my parents birth, and of my second citizenship, Syria, is currently undergoing a revolution against the Ba'athist government that has been in power for more than 30 years. Fueled by the rhetoric and sucess of the Tunisian, Egyptian, Libyan, and Yemeni revolutions, people are finally trying to take control of their lives, something they have not effectively done since before the Romans. I have tried my best to stay uninformed because ultimately, I've got too much on my plate as it is between work and school, and to get wrapped up into it would make both suffer. In any case, I came across this article this morning. Foreign Policy magazine has some top notch reporting and this is a good primer as to Syria's history and why a revolution there may be the most important thing to happen to the middle east, and the US by extension, in decades.


http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2 ... 21/syriana
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-E ... unds-hopes
http://www.economist.com/node/18587518
http://www.economist.com/topics/syria

for the time being, my family is safe, with most of the protests happening outside Damascus. My parents were planning on going this summer. Now thats up in the air.

[stebo0728]

FWIW - Having no family in any areas of the ME, I'm able to speak on it from a much removed vantage point, often non knowing what the hell I'm talking about. I sympathize with you, actually having vested interest in that area. All I can say is that I hope for their sake, and yours, that continued diplomatic measures can find some sort of success in that area, and that bloodshed can be avoided when at all possible.

[Cold_Zero]

I had thought that a revolution in Saudi Arabia would have bigger ramifications. Obviously, the revolution in SA is no where near the critical mass stage of Syria. Probably due to the proxy fight in Bahrain? I must admit that I have not been following the one in Syria as close, but I shall read the links provided on my new iPad2.

[heliochrome85]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and- ... mainpromo1

[bigbadberry3]

I only see this getting worse unfortunately. What would you like to be done?

[Cold_Zero]

They were talking about the Casualty list today on the news. Do you really think Assad's regime will be toppled by protests?

[heliochrome85]

They were talking about the Casualty list today on the news. Do you really think Assad's regime will be toppled by protests?

its definately possible.

[IBCoupe]

I've heard some analysis that suggests that Assad, a reformer by Middle Eastern standards, isn't behind this, but is so damned ineffectual that the military's walking all over him.

Don't know how right that is.

[AZhitman]

Looks like things have taken a turn for the worse...

We're praying for our friend Tariq's family and friends, the people of Daraa and all of Syria tonight.

[heliochrome85]

Looks like things have taken a turn for the worse...

We're praying for our friend Tariq's family and friends, the people of Daraa and all of Syria tonight.

yeah, i got home late from my first day in surgery and my first case in the operating room. safe to say im too pooped and demoralized to read the news. ill try to do my best to at least give feed back, thankfully everyone in my family is safe and secure. our house is in a protected area between many embassies, and that of our extended families are in similar areas. i hope this comes to a speedy close. for both sides.

[Cold_Zero]

I guess this protest in Syria throws out the notion that the Iranians are behind these revolutions. Since the Syria government has traditionally looked the other way or condoned Iranian involvement with groups inside Syria and Lebanon. My thought is, removing President Assad would be a very bad thing for Iranian interests (for lack of a better term).

I did catch an interesting show on PBS called My Summer in Iran. About this American mom that takes her son to visit Iran and connect with people and the culture. Turns out she is jewish and there was a little bit about wanting to meet the mothers of Iranians before their kids met on the battlefield (I hope this never happens). What was interesting was at the end of the show, they had a big map of the Middle East and the wife of a Revolutionary Guard member (a doctor) put big rocks on the countries with big US Military bases. It did drive home the point that if you are Iranian, you can’t but help think that you are being surrounded (Alamo) and the US is readying for an attack. Think about it, what countries in the Middle East or Southwest Asia do we NOT have a military presence? Kind of off topic, but something to think about. Next on the DVR is a thing about the Druze. Shall be interesting.

[IBCoupe]

We still have a presence in Saudi Arabia, the driving motivation behind the 9/11 attacks, or so claimed the perpetrators.

[Cold_Zero]

Let's see:
Iraq- Desert Storm I and II
Turkey - Cold War
Afghanistan- 9-11& Global War on Terror
Pakistan - 9-11 & Global War on Terror
Qatar- 1980's Protection of Shipping
Kuwait- Desert Storm I
Kyrgyzstan-War in Afghanistan
Bahrain- 1980's Protection of Shipping

This does not include all the other countries that we sail/fly into to support our war efforts.

[AZhitman]

Kinda makes me wonder (and I know it's an incredibly simplistic question), what would happen if we simply decided to walk away, sell the bases to the host countries, come home, focus on strength through economic prosperity and technology, and quit trying to be the biggest swinging d!ck on the planet.

Not that I'm advocating that, but something has to change.

[IBCoupe]

Well, we have 20% of the world's GDP, and we spend more than the rest of the world combined on defense.

If we're rethinking our foreign military presence, we might as well go ahead and rethink our worldwide military role.

[Cold_Zero]

Greg,
Most of the foreign bases are leased. Here is my question and maybe it is better for another thread. What is the impact on our economy thinking from a Protection of Shipping standpoint if we do pull back our military forces from Europe, Africa, the Middle East and South America?

[IBCoupe]

What protection is being done, aside from very localized problems like Somalia?

If we pulled back that force, wouldn't other countries have an interest in protecting it? In order to keep companies from finding less costly places to ship? We can have a high seas navy without European bases.

[AZhitman]

Well, we have 20% of the world's GDP, and we spend more than the rest of the world combined on defense.

If we're rethinking our foreign military presence, we might as well go ahead and rethink our worldwide military role.

Right - That's what I'm asking, hypothetically I suppose.

I shudder to think that ANYTHING is "sacred" or "off the table" in times like these. If people like me expect entitlements and pork to be excised, it stands to reason that something equally drastic needs to happen on "the other side".

I'm not as well-versed on international relations and budgetary matters as some here.

[Cold_Zero]

The term is Blue Water Navy.

While CTF-150 is a prime example of other countries (Along with the United States) performing MSO in the Gulf of Aden (Based out of Bahrain/Djibouti). We run Martine Security Operations (MSO) and Protection of Shipping (POS) all over Asia, the Persian Gulf and the world. It is actually the reason why we have a Navy in this country in the first place. Wasn’t the United States Navy expanded to protect shipping off the Barbary Coast?
It would take too long to list the US Navy Bases and then all the Port of Calls we have agreements with (Yemen, Singapore, Hong Kong..), but if we were to pull back from all of our bases around the world, I don’t think we could deploy most of our surface fleet (exception of Carrier Groups) without them running out of fuel and food. While piracy in the Med is not a big issue, that is not the case around the world. Would be interesting to see what the cost benefit analysis would be to pulling out of the foreign bases that operate vs. the added support that it would take to operate ships and aircraft heading to destinations.

[IBCoupe]

Whatever it's called, do we need that many bases to cover the globe? If we leave coastline operations to other countries that don't want to lose commerce, couldn't we drastically reduce the number of bases that resupply our fleet?

I get the feeling that the naval air forces can better handle shipping-lane protection. And we can operate carrier fleets without having to interface with every country on the planet.

[AZhitman]

Now see, here's a good topic... Lots of curiosity, no experts, and open minds.

I'd like to ask this one of some experts - granted, I'm sure there's a thousand reasons it wouldn't fly, but I'd like to hear those reasons, just for my own edification.

[stebo0728]

Gotta have as many green plastic houses and red plastic hotels on the board as we can right?

[IBCoupe]

Studio 360 has been trying to create a new version of monopoly for two reasons:

1. The game, at some point becomes nothing more than one person slowly winning, while everybody else watches, dying a slow, agonizing death.
2. It bears no resemblance to how the modern economy works.

http://www.studio360.org/series/redesigning-monopoly/

[heliochrome85]

http://www.tnr.com/article/world/88013/ ... s-gaza-war

[AZhitman]

Yo Reeq -

Everyone still ok in the homeland?

[heliochrome85]

Yo Reeq -

Everyone still ok in the homeland?

hope so, but the parents are about to cancel their trip since there are 6 armed military check points from the airport to damascus, and there are alot of reports of gunfire at night. unsettling for sure.

[AZhitman]

Wishing them safety and quiet nights.