Voter registration trend in California

[srellim234]

In California we are moving away from both the Republican and Democratic Parties. From the California Secretary of State:

http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror_051908.htm

May 4, 1992 - May 19, 2008- Percentage of registered voters

Democrats- declined from 48.5 to 43.8%Republicans- declined from 38.6 to 32.5%Third parties- increased from 3.2 to 4.3%Declined to state- increased from 9.7 to 19.4%

That means that currently a hair less than 1 in 3 registered voters in this state is now a Republican, with the percentage still declining.

Between third parties and people who don't want to associate themselves officially with either party, the number is approaching 1 in 4, with their numbers increasing.

For those who say a vote for someone other than the "big 2" is a vote for the other guy, you didn't necessarily have 1 in 4 people in the first place. That block of people may be looking for a new home and if less than half of them find a charismatic leader with the right message that party will become a decent sized player. It doesn't look like it will happen this election cycle but it appears to be getting closer.

Anybody have 15, 20 or 25 year trends for their state? Official national numbers?
Modified by srellim234 at 12:36 PM 8/4/2008

[WDRacing]

We got off to a bad start in that other thread. I apologize for that...

I'd love to vote 3rd party. But in MY personal case I don't want a certain candidate to win, so I'm more or less voting against him. Which is why a lot of people still vote based on the two party rule. I have a better shot percentage wise of keeping someone out of office by voting for the next most likely candidate to win.

If more states and more people would go with a swing vote we'd have more success removing either party from office. But the majority of Americans get their information from the media. Which is obviously biased towards the big 2.

WD

[srellim234]

I understand it completely. People can vote either for someone or against someone.

At age 54, I'm still naive enough to believe that it is my responsibility to vote for someone if I can find someone reasonably close to my belief system. It's interesting, because I was raised that way but my Dad, now in his 80s, has changed over the last 30 years and is now following your line of thinking. He feels totally betrayed by what the Republican Party has become but can't bring himself to vote for a non-Republican "because the Democrats will win."

In my case, I felt betrayed enough by the Republican Party to leave it. In my adult life, coincidentally, my best years of employment have been under a Democratic president and non-union. I can not support the Democratic Party theories of government mandated wealth redistribution so I don't go there. So, I continue to look for that "knight in shining armor" to vote for.

Anyway, back to the topic. Here in California the two major parties are losing substantial ground. Have any official trends on other states?

[srellim234]

Assembled the Arizona stats from the Arizona Secretary of State site:http://www.azsos.gov/election/VoterReg/

From the general election 1994 to June 2008:

Democratic Party- declined from 42.09 to 34.22%Republican Party- declined from 44.99 to 38.23%Third parties and others (I'm assuming undeclared?): increased from 12.92 to 27.55%

[srellim234]

From the Nevada Secretary of State, after the big Democratic primary registration push:

http://sos.state.nv.us/elections/voter-reg/2000/

From January 2000 to July 2008:

Democratic Party- increased from 41.5 to 45.0%Republican Party- declined from 41.4 to 37.6%Third parties- increased from 2.9 to 3.3%Non-partisan registrations- declined from 14.2 to 14.1%

[rn79870]

The AZ stats make sense as McCain is their candidate. Same thing probably happened when Goldwater ran.

[srellim234]

I don't understand your interpretation. Why would the two major parties continue to decline while third parties and undeclared rolls go up just because someone is running from your state? The AZ numbers are similar to CA numbers and CA doesn't have a "native son" in the race.

Nevada is quite different. I'll see if I can dig up a few more states in the coming days.

[rn79870]

There is little question many people are tired of the "lesser of two evil" approach to voting. That probably accounts for the rise in "independent" affiliations. I'm guessing here, so take it as nothing more than a guess.