themadscientist wrote:Who bought at peak? Not me. Who says this is the peak? Not me. Who is diversified? Me.
Ok, well I'm only addressing buying NOW, as your post read like you were telling people to buy metals now. Thus, any prior basis you may have is functionally irrelevant to your recommendation (if you are in fact making one).
I do think we're probably nearing peak. Even if we're $200/oz away, I don't want to hang on for that and then lose $500/oz in a tumble. We can agree to disagree, speculation is just that.
themadscientist wrote:Derivatives, yeah, great idea. Ask all those people that dabbled in the housing market derivatives how well they worked for them. Ask Greece about Derivatives. They could show you how the investment banks helped them hide their debt and then created credit default swaps to profit from the failure of the monster they created. You should look at the back story on PM ETFs, musical chairs man with metal sold several times over. JP Morgan has a bunch of law suits coming their way. Contracts coming to maturity and they are unable to deliver and are forced to negotiate a metal contract for cash. You keep trusting those scumbags if you choose.
I'm not talking about esoteric derivatives, just simple ETF's based on the price of an ounce of gold, or silver, or whatever. You aren't using leverage (at least not by design), it's absolutely nothing at all like a credit default swap.
themadscientist wrote:As the world moves away from the dollar as a reserve currency, China quietly divests itself of dollar-based investment vehicles, countries in Europe fall like dominoes under the weight of similar crushing debt and flawed economic models as the U.S., but while they kick in austerity we hurtle towards quantitative easing 3, you are actually still drinking the kool aid? Delusion is a hell of a drug.
I don't disagree that we're moving away from the dollar, but I'm arguing that it makes more sense to buy a basket of other currencies or an ETF based on a hard asset (not gold, IMO, but again, agree to disagree) rather than to buy actual tangible metal that can be stolen, lost, etc.
themadscientist wrote:
I have yet to see anyone demonstrate how the current trend is going to be reversed. You speak as if you have the answer Hash; take a shot.
Tell us how we stop deficit spending and pay down the debt.
Tell us how to put Americans back to work.
Tell us how to deal with a dead housing market with people getting kicked out of their homes and those hanging in there upside down on their mortgage.
Tell us how we get the cities, states, and our federal government to a point of solvency.
You didn't ask about any of that stuff and so I didn't address it, and I certainly don't claim to have the answers to any of those questions.
You're telling people to buy hard commodities because of future currency destabilization. I chimed in that I think that there are other, superior hedging instruments that carry precisely the same price risk with none of the physical damage/theft risk. This is the full extent of our conversation to this point, it didn't have anything to do with mortgages, municipal solvency, or the mating habits of the African and/or European swallow.
Cliffs:
Hash thinks the following:
1.) TMS is probably right about the dollar, at least to a certain degree. Diversification is good.
2.) Hard commodities are innately inferior to ETF's based on them because they can be misplaced, stolen, or otherwise damaged, and they must be stored, etc.
3.) Due to this innate inferiority, the only reason someone would buy hard commodities rather than the aforementioned ETF's is because said someone thinks that all fiat currencies are somehow in danger of collapse because they are expecting some sort of massive global destabilization and/or apocalypse.
4.) Deficits will rise, and spending will have to decrease and taxes will have to increase, and it will surely be painful, but it won't be Mad Max. There will still be banks and stock exchanges and ATM's and microwaves and the evening news. Some of us will just be a little poorer. The guy who bought gold at a historical all time high will probably be a lot poorer.