The polls. They are useless.

[Jesda]

This has to be, by far, the worst year for polling. While one poll shows Obama up 10, others show him up 2.

Democrats say to ignore the polls and not get complacent.Republicans say to ignore the polls and keep working to elect McCain.

The end result? The media finds its own numbers then throws them around to fit whatever story it wants to tell. For us, it serves absolutely no purpose. We already knew McCain and Obama were popular candidates. We already knew third party candidates were low in the polls.

The rest is a silly horse race to the finish line. There's nothing substantive about any of that.

[Cold_Zero]

For the longest time I always wondered who these pollsters called during the day? My thought was always people from Cabrini-Green up in Chicago..

[themadscientist]

but your pants always score high in polls, why complain?

That would be hysterical to open Gallup, Zogby and Rasmussen and see 48% of likely pants wearers view jesdas pants favorably. 43% view his pants unfavorably. 9% are undecided

A nice pie chart and some demographic-specific tracking polls. Tel can post walls of text from left-wing blogs showing your pants are wrong for America and Greg can call him stupid and pull up some links proving they are just what America needs in these troubled times. The best part is when Ish and I say mean things to each other while never actually discusssing your pants.

[hsckris]

This has to be, by far, the worst year for polling. While one poll shows Obama up 10, others show him up 2.

Democrats say to ignore the polls and not get complacent.Republicans say to ignore the polls and keep working to elect McCain.

The end result? The media finds its own numbers then throws them around to fit whatever story it wants to tell. For us, it serves absolutely no purpose. We already knew McCain and Obama were popular candidates. We already knew third party candidates were low in the polls.

The rest is a silly horse race to the finish line. There's nothing substantive about any of that.

I totally agree. This just gives me one more reason to despise mass media. I wish we could truly get unbias coverage -- I think I'd be amazed. Technically I guess that isn't even possible b/c every writer would have some sort of bias.

Anyhow --- PPolls, hugh! What are they good for? Absolutely nothing.

[smockers83]

Any poll from any network news channel should be taken with a grain of salt, even the Poll of Polls from CNN (bunch of hogwash). Even though they may come across as scientific to the people they call, they may be manipulating the sample they call. They may do so by wording the questions in a way to produce a certain answer or they might not have a random sample of the population. Producing polls is a money maker as it keeps viewers coming back for more to see the new polls.

[wawazat8402]

I was just reading the current Time magazine issue and it mentioned a possible explanation for the polls and why they may not turn out to be accurate.

It mentioned the Bradley Effect. Its named after a former LA mayor, Tom Bradley. It states that when a black man is running for office against a white man, many of those polled will lie when asked who they support because they dont want to appear prejudiced by voting against a black man. I dont really understand this mentality if the person has valid reasons for choosing one candidate over the other, but I can see how some may feel this way when asked directly who they plan to support.

Do you guys think this could be a valid cause of error in the polls?

[smockers83]

Yes, but there is usually a margin of error given with the poll. How much of the race issue is covered in that margin, who knows? Political polls, especially done by the media, should always be taken with a grain of salt until the vote is in. Then compare the vote to the polling data and see what the true error really was.

[WDRacing]

Definitly, especially this day and age where racism is so overly played and or criticized.

Polls = general guestimates

Any Poll can be swayed and or changed by simply choosing the correct demographic. No brainer...is the race over, ignorant people say yes.

[audtatious]

As I just listed in another thread, here is the last election:

Fox News Poll, Nov. 1, 2004, Kerry 48%, Bush 45%

[telcoman]

As I just listed in another thread, here is the last election:

Fox News Poll, Nov. 1, 2004, Kerry 48%, Bush 45%

Matt

I think the polls are much improved from 4 years ago?

I'm getting a warm fuzzy feeling that it will be an early Tuesday evening.

http://www.politico.com/news/s....html

Telcoman

[audtatious]

Of course you think the polls are better when you have groups like ACORN supporting your candidate and states like Ohio allowing anyone in the world who wants to vote for him to vote.

[AZhitman]

Matt

I think the polls are much improved from 4 years ago?

Today's polling is so much more technologically advanced than in 2004.

Howie, don't *think*. Just entertain us.

Here, I even bought you a hat.

[telcoman]

Howie, don't *think*. Just entertain us.

Here, I even bought you a hat.

Ok, here is something I found entertaining

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...s.com/

She is as dumb as a moose

Any some want her as a VP?

I hope not

[audtatious]

More intelligence from DailyKos and Telco. Thanks for adding to this thread.

[ishkabibble]

They should be required to post the methodology along with every poll.

[AZhitman]

They should be required to post the methodology along with every poll.

...with 90% of the populace having never taken a basic Stats class, it wouldn't matter.

[Cold_Zero]

There are one's that I do tend to trust, albeit not 100%. But since I have never been called for one... I tend to not put my faith in them.

[ishkabibble]

...with 90% of the populace having never taken a basic Stats class, it wouldn't matter.

It would matter to us.

[audtatious]

Those doing the polling may not like us "Joe Citizen" average-Joe types picking apart their methodology

[skylndrftr]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

they post their methodlogy, and have way more data then most of us can handle. Same guy who does baseball stats. They have an interesting post right now about cell phone versus non cellphone polls. Check it out