Main Headlines

• Republican's gain strength in Senate R+2, Democrats regain House D+36.
• Republican's continue to keep majority govenorships, Democrats gain 7 governors and now hold govenorship population majority.

Upsets

• Oklahoma-5th Democrat Kendra Horn won (7% chance of winning)
• South Carolina-1st Democrat Joe Cunningham won (9% chance)
• New York-11th Staten Island Democrat Max N. Rose won (20% chance)
  • Top 3 house upsets are the blue squares to the far right.
• *Florida governor Republican Rick Desamtis won (23% chance) (*Still pending)
• Indiana Senator Republican Mike Braun won (28% chance)

Other Top Stories

• 1. Trends
  • Republicans are losing the youth vote, women, and suburban white males.
  • Partisanship is real and Democrats are getting whooped in Red states.
  • The country is becoming more sharply divided. Less grey area. Rural vs the Rest.

• 2. Turnout
  • Both parties turned out en mass.
  • Nearly ~50% or 115m voted in 2018, the most for a midterm since 1966.
  • For reference 60% or 136m in 2016, and 32% or 79m 2014.

• 3. Demographics
  • Urban aka Big Cities
    • 2 Republicans incumbents from Staten Island NY lost.
    • Democrats now own every single urban house seat in the US.
  • Suburbs Go Blue
    • College educated white male suburban voters that went for Romney in 2012, and then went Clinton in 2016 continued to go Democrat in 2018.
    • "Rust Belt" districts Obama won in 08-12, then to Trump in 2016, moved back to being 50-50 toss-ups.
    • More data about suburbs flipping.
  • Rural Trump Country
    • Pro-Trump districts budged a bit more for Democrats in the Midterms than in the Presidential election but by very little. Republicans maintain a strong majority.

• 4. Women
  • Women were 53% of the total vote.
  • College educated women voted D61%-R38% in 2018. D55%-R45% in 2016. D48%-R52% in 2014.
  • Non-college educated women were split D49%-R49%.

• 5. States Flirting with Purple
  • Arizona, Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia all saw strong swings away from what was traditional GOP territory.
  • The Texas-7th, is the suburb where the Bush's live, and they voted in a Democrat for the first time in 51 years!
  • The Texas-7th was in Democratic hands until George H. W. Bush won the seat in 1967.

• 6. States seeing Red
  • In the 90s Ohio was seen as a battle ground state but as the years went on it became more and more in Republican control. I see a future uphill battle for Democrats in Ohio.
  • Missouri has always leaned right but it to has entered untouchable territory.

• 7. Partisanship overcomes incumbency in Senate
  • Which party you identify with means more than if your representative has been in charge a long time. People with little or no experience were able to take out incumbents. New Challengers were able to raise money and win. Incentive to vote down party lines is very high.
  • Moderate Republicans are gone. No more Flake, McCain, Corker etc. What's left are Trumpy Republicans and all types of Democrats. From Elizabeth Warren, Bernard Sanders, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to Joe Manchin III, Jon Tester, and Conor Lamb.

• 8. Gerrymandering
  • In 2010, Republicans had a +6 national vote advantage and they won 65 seats. In 2018, Democrats had a +7 national vote advantage and they won *36 seats. Gerrymandering is very real.
  • Which is why its such a huge deal that democrats flipped 7 governorships.
  • New district lines will be drawn after the 2020 census.
    North Carolina
    • In North Carolina the congressional map was ordered redrawn in January 2018 by the NC Supreme Court.
    • They stalled, appealed, then ultimately claimed it was too late in August to honor the new map. Judge agreed.
    • In 2018 Republicans won 50.3 percent of NC’s votes for Congress. They took 10 of 13 seats. (F□cking UNREAL!)
      • https://www.newsobserver.com/news/polit ... =mainstage
    • NC is setup in such a way that no matter how people vote, Republican's will take 10 seats.
    • Here is North Carolina's current congressional map, 50% of the vote 77% of the congressmen:
      • 
    • Here is what the map should look like, 50% of the vote 54% of the congressmen.
      

Interesting Voter Data

• 1. Misc
  • Almost 7 in 10 voters said the they thought the economy was in good shape.
  • 77 percent of Democrats want Trump impeached, according to a CNN analysis of exit poll data.

• 2. Recent Events
  • 83% of voters said “recent extremist violence” was an important factor in their vote.
  • 54%-36% percent sees voter suppression as a bigger concern than vote fraud.

• 3. Youth
  • 13% of voters are 18-29 year olds; only 11% in 2014.
  • Youth voted D68%-R31% in 2018. 2018 margin 37-points, 2016 margin 21-points, and 2014 margin 12-points.

• 4. Mueller/Election Security
  • 54% say it's politically motivated rather than justified and 41% say the Mueller investigation is NOT politically motivated.
  • 42% approve and 46% disapprove of how Special Counsel Robert Mueller is handling the probe.

• 5. Guns
  • 60% support and 35% oppose stricter gun control measures.
  • 42% support and 52% oppose among those in gun-owning households.
  • 47% of voters live in gun-owning households.

Interesting data. I think it's difficult to argue it wasn't a blue wave as the Dems took the house, but one could argue that it was far from a tsunami as the RNC still controls the Senate and white house. I think the Great Pumpkin was lying, that it was "nearly a complete victory", but it was enough of a victory to prevent him from being convicted if the house impeaches him, and he retains his ability to nominate SCOTUS picks.

Bubba1 wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:28 am

Interesting data. I think it's difficult to argue it wasn't a blue wave as the Dems took the house, but one could argue that it was far from a tsunami as the RNC still controls the Senate and white house.

I would have called it a Democratic tsunami if they managed to come through in Florida.
Both Nelson and Gillum were polling well enough to manage ~7-10 odds of winning.
In my eyes it was a huge let down. I also wasn't expecting a shellacking in Indiana.
Either way the momentum is with Democrats but 2 years is a long time.

Bubba1 wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:28 am

but it was enough of a victory to prevent him from being convicted if the house impeaches him, and he retains his ability to nominate SCOTUS picks.

The Senate can now more easily move though judges and it allows Trump to install more insane cabinet members.
So we have that to look forward to.

I still can't get over the gerrymandering of states.

More BS from North Carolina

RCA wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:34 pm

I still can't get over the gerrymandering of states.
More BS from North Carolina

Yeah because everyone knows only Republicans are into gerrymandering. BTW, the below is from the WaPo.

Maryland and North Carolina are essentially tied for the honor of most-gerrymandered state.
Maryland is proof that gerrymandering isn't just a Republican pastime, as the state's Democrats redrew those boundaries in 2012. The standout in that state is the 3rd Congressional district, which is the nation's second-most gerrymandered and home to Democratic congressman John Sarbanes.

Contrary to one popular misconception about the practice, the point of gerrymandering isn't to draw yourself a collection of overwhelmingly safe seats. Rather, it's to give your opponents a small number of safe seats, while drawing yourself a larger number of seats that are not quite as safe, but that you can expect to win comfortably. Considering this dynamic, John Sides of The Washington Post's Monkey Cage blog has argued convincingly that gerrymandering is not what's behind the rising polarization in Congress.

Rogue One wrote: ↑

Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:44 am

RCA wrote: ↑

Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:34 pm

I still can't get over the gerrymandering of states.
More BS from North Carolina
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBweZMNIm2M

Yeah because everyone knows only Republicans are into gerrymandering. BTW, the below is from the WaPo.

First I just want to say I appreciate the source.

Second I agree with you that it isn't some Republican invention only used by them.
The NC posts weren't an attack on you or all Republicans.
Gerrymandering shouldn't be a partisan issue.
The voice of the American people is more important than winning.

Third I want to make sure we don't claim an equivalency.
Quote from the video in the bottom of the source you linked:

• "The districts set by state legislatures have long been bent for partisan advantage but recently Republicans have reaped most of the rewards. Consider the 2012 election where the GOP scored 33 more seats in the house... even though Democrats earned 1,000,000 more votes in those house races."

So gerrymandering is a tool both sides can use but one side has become more brazen about it's use.
If you look at the map in the source you posted you can see further evidence.
The darkest places on the map are much more often in places with lines drawn by Republican legislators.
Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Ohio.


My final point would be this, I don't care if individual districts are shaped funny.
What I care about is that the statewide representation matches how the people of the state votes.
If your state votes R60% - D40% then there should be a similar ratio reflected in their representatives.
So if you need to draw out a highly gerrymandered district to get the proper ratio then I don't care.

Bonus if we could avoid 99% partisan districts and make them more competitive.
In an area where a party might win 99%-1%, make it 75%-25%.
It would be nice if bad politicians were kept more honest and hyper partisans less partisan.
I'm looking at you Devin Nunes and Al Green.