Republican primary schedule

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themadscientist
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It's an election year and the Republicans will soon begin the difficult and sometimes heated process of selecting the nominee from the party to face Obama in the general election. It happens pretty fast and you can't tell one from another without a playbook so here they are.
Source: http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews ... -schedule/

Full Primary/Caucus Calendar

January 3, 2012
Iowa (caucus)

January 10, 2012
New Hampshire (primary)

January 21, 2012
South Carolina (primary)

January 31, 2012
Florida (primary)

February 4, 2012
Nevada (caucus)

February 4–11, 2012
Maine (caucus)

February 7, 2012
Colorado (caucus)
Minnesota (caucus)
Missouri (primary) – *See note below on Missouri
*Missouri: Missouri will hold a primary on February 7th, 2012, which will not count for delegates toward the 2012 GOP convention. The Missouri Republican Party will hold a caucus on March 17th, 2012, which will determine the delegates sent to the 2012 GOP convention
Story: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... -to-march/

February 28, 2012
Arizona (primary)
Michigan (primary)

March 3, 2012
Washington (caucus)

March 6, 2012
(Super Tuesday) Alaska (caucus)
Georgia (primary)
Idaho (caucus)
Massachusetts (primary)
North Dakota (caucus)
Ohio (primary)
Oklahoma (primary)
Tennessee (primary)
Vermont (primary)
Virginia (primary)

March 6-10, 2012
Wyoming (caucus)

March 10, 2012
Kansas (caucus)
U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus)

March 13, 2012
Alabama (primary)
Hawaii (caucus)
Mississippi (primary)

March 17, 2012
Missouri (GOP caucus) – *See note below on Missouri

March 20, 2012
Illinois (primary)

March 24, 2012
Louisiana (primary)

April 3, 2012
District of Columbia (primary)
Maryland (primary)
Wisconsin (primary)
Texas (primary)

April 24, 2012
Connecticut (primary)
Delaware (primary)
New York (primary)
Pennsylvania (primary)
Rhode Island (primary)

May 8, 2012
Indiana (primary)
North Carolina (primary)
West Virginia (primary)

May 15, 2012
Nebraska (primary)
Oregon (primary)

May 22, 2012
Arkansas (primary)
Kentucky (primary)

June 5, 2012
California (primary)
Montana (primary)
New Jersey (primary)
New Mexico (primary)
South Dakota (primary)

June 26, 2012
Utah (primary)

Now what is the difference between a primary and a caucus you may ask. Well, maybe you didn't ask, but I did and here's the answer smartypants.
Source: http://www.factcheck.org/2008/04/caucus-vs-primary/

Caucus: Caucus meetings are arranged by either the state or political party to take place at a certain place and time. Caucuses are unique in that they allow participants to openly show support for candidates. Voting is often done by raising hands or breaking into groups according to the candidate participants support. The results of the caucus are used to determine the delegates present at county, state and national nominating conventions of each political party. Most often, only registered voters can participate in a caucus, and they are limited to the caucus of the party with which they are affiliated.

Primary: Primaries are a direct, statewide process of selecting candidates and delegates. Similar to the general election process, primary voters cast secret ballots for the candidates of their choosing. The results are used to determine the configuration of delegates at the national convention of each party. Primaries come in two basic forms: In an open primary, all registered voters can vote for any candidate, regardless of their political affiliation. Registered Democrats may vote for a Republican candidate, and Republican voters may cast ballots for a Democrat, for instance. And registered Independents can participate in either party’s primary. But in a closed primary, voters may vote only for candidates of the party with which they are registered.

My state, Virginia, is an open primary state. As such even as an independent I can vote in the primary even though I am not a registered party member. I will be doing that and I encourage anyone who has interest in the future Republican nominee to do so as well. The primary process is not nearly as well participated in as the general and you have a greater chance of influencing events at this stage so get involved and vote! :slap:


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themadscientist
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Iowa kicking off as we speak. I'm going to say that the three top contenders are Romney, Santorum, and Paul. Santorum might be able to unseat Romney with all this last minute momentum, but I think Ron Paul is pretty certain to cross the finish line in 3rd place.

The others? I don't care. They are in a slow free fall. Gingerich should have a decent showing in South Carolina, but I think he's done in Iowa. He whines about the Romney PAC attack ads, but he is unable to show they are incorrect, he just whines.

Perry might pull in at fourth. He's been carpet-bombing with tv ads as we wind down, but I think he owes the failures of the two other second-tier candidates for any success he has as much as the advertisements. I think he will last as far as South Carolina, but have to get real and drop out.

Bachmann will likely last that long too, but less because she is making headway and more because she's incapable of dealing with the fact she is not going to win, ever.

Huntsman can concentrate on New Hampshire as much as he wants, it won't matter. He's a non-starter in most of the northeast and the south for different reasons by state, but the same degree of disinterest amongst all. The three top candidates will come in with momentum from Iowa and still stomp him.

I'm reasonably confident Romney will carry New Hampshire, but I am less sure about how Paul and Santorum will place. Paul's Libertarian views may play in New Hampshire. I mean, they put "live free or die" on their damned license plates! Santorum is a likable guy with a pro NRA flavor; I think if he is third it will be a close third. I would expect Gingerich to secure more votes than the rest of the remaining field for fourth.

Barring anything highly controversial I would expect Santorum to best Romney in South Carolina and I suspect Romney feels that too. He's an northeast moderate Republican and I don't think he will like down thar. That's likely why his is prepositioning his organization in Florida. I expect him to do well in the metropolitan areas that lean a bit to the left populated by northern transplants. Santorum should appeal to the more southernesque rural counties.

Unless Santorum get massacred in New Hampshire I think those two are going to be going at it blow for blow in these early states and this should be a heated lead up to the general.

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themadscientist
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8 friggin votes, 8! Romney bests Santorum by 8 votes.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... y-8-votes/

If you ever needed an example of how pivotal primaries can be, there you have it. You aren't going to see those margins in a general election. The chance to make an impact is much higher in these early stages of the process so get out there!

Newt whined again as expected. Waaa, mean old Romney said mean things about me. Prove him wrong, PROVE him wrong or STFU. He's going to New Hampshire, but I don't expect it's going to go much better. Nobody likes naughty children who cry when they don't get their way.

Bachmann says she has tickets to South Carolina, but as bad as her campaign is doing it's likely bus tickets. She can only delude herself as long as her donors are willing to fund her malady, she's done.

Perry went from "we're going to South Carolina" before voting began to "I'm going back to Texas to reassess my campaign" when reality pimp-slapped him. C'mon Perry, hang in there. You have a chance,,,,,to amuse me more. Yours is a fine campaign
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themadscientist
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We have our first drop out. That kooky lady finally got the message. Bye Michele. Be sure to keep misrepresenting history, though. I do so enjoy that and would miss the comic relief if you crawled back under rock. :chuckle:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... -the-race/
Mrs. Bachmann said on Wednesday morning that she would not continue her campaign for the Republican presidential nomination.

“Last night, the people of Iowa spoke with a very clear voice, and so I have decided to stand aside,” Mrs. Bachmann said at a news conference in West Des Moines.
Yeah, I would call sixth place pretty clear. :chuckle:

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bigbadberry3
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Perry's out next.

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themadscientist
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I think you are right. He does look stunning in spandex, though.

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I think the next brutal drubbing will be Huntsman, though. He insulted Iowa and expended a lot of effort in New Hampshire instead and I don't think it's going to amount to much. If he breaks a double digit percentage I will be very surprised.

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themadscientist wrote:Image
Separated at birth?

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