Post by
smockers83 »
https://forums.nicoclub.com/smockers83-u49766.html
Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:16 pm
Alright, this is long over due as this one is a little harder and longer without being boring, redundant, and stupidly obvious. I have also decided to throw in business cycle theory as well. Nothing like some good economics with a good beer.
We'll start with the rise and fall of business.
Simply put, the rise and fall of business is due to the scarcity of knowledge, a business' ability and willingness to adapt and understand the changes going on in it's market. Knowledge is probably the most scarce thing in an economy regardless of what kind of economic system is in place. If a company is capable and willing to make changes and adapt to changes happening in it's market, it can reap in profits. However, if a company is incapable of changing or doesn't understand the changes, it can incur huge losses and ultimately the company's demise. With that said, let's look at the different kinds of changes that can occur.
Social ChangesIn the early 20th century, the largest retail chain in the world existed, called A&P, which was a grocery chain. At it's peak, it had the largest number of stores of any company in the world prior and since. Today, A&P is such a small fraction of it's size during it's glory days. In the early 20th century and through the 50s, the A&P chain was able to be so successful because it's business model was much more efficient than any other grocery chain out there. The efficiencies that they had allowed them to capitalize in sales through lower prices than the competition. In the 50s though, the US saw the widespread increased use and affordability of the automobile, which led to suburbia.
Some people realized and understood the implications of this large social change. People with automobiles could now travel farther, could carry more groceries, and could also stock up more than they used to with the increased use and affordability of refrigeration units and freezers. While A&P kept its thousands and thousands neighborhood stores, other grocery chains and new chains consolidated into more or less of how we view grocery chains today. With these social changes and the ability to consolidate stores, this introduced a whole new level of efficiency into the market and lowered costs of bringing goods to consumers. This allowed other and new chains to become more competitive than A&P, which was resistant to change, and sell at lower prices. Nor did A&P follow the money into sunbelt states such as California. These chains found it much more efficient to check out one person buying $50 worth of groceries than 10 people buying $5 worth like A&P did. This knowledge and understanding of the knowledge lead to the rise of new successful chains and the severe reduction in size of A&P.
Other companies, such as Wards and Sears didn't start out as department stores as we now know/knew them. Montgomery Wards as it was known before being just Wards, was a mail order retail business. They capitalized on the efficiency of having a huge warehouse of goods and selling directly to consumers, whom the majority still lived in rural communities. This allowed them to sell at lower prices than stores in these communities and Montgomery Wards grew into the nation's largest retailer. Sears also started out as a mail order company. In 1920, it was seen in statistics that the population was now moving into urban areas, as now more people lived in the cities than rural communities. A man at Montgomery Wards recognized this and proposed to upper management that they now open stores in the cities instead of relying on the mail order system. Wards fired him for not sticking to company policy and he then moved to Sears and tried to convince management there to do the same. Sears moved on the opportunity and became very successful with their stores.
J.C. Penney had the same insight when he started his store before Sears or Wards did. By 1920, he grew is chain to more than 300 stores and to more than 1000 by the end of the decade and became a huge problem to the mail order giants of Montgomery Wards and Sears because his model was even more efficient than theirs was with the social changes taking place.
Woods, the man from Wards who went to Sears, convinced them and followed Penney's model. Montgomery Ward was the last of the three to implement the new business model and was never able to regain their top retailer designation and is now no longer existent. Sam Walton was a clerk in a Penney's store and learned the business from the ground up and then used that knowledge to begin his own, now known as Wal-Mart, which has more sales than Penney's and Sears combined.
J.C. Penney grew up in poverty much worse than many of those on welfare today, yet he had the insight that those of the giants in Montgomery Wards and Sears did not, and his insight prevailed among some of the richest men of his time. His insight led to huge profits for him and huge losses to the other two companies as he was able to undersell them, only to have the other two companies buckle and imitate his model in order to become profitable again.
Economic ChangesOne of the biggest economic changes of our time is the credit/debit card. In the 50s and 60s, department stores such as Bloomingdale's and Macy's refused to accept credit cards for payment even though millions of people in NYC had these cards. Smaller stores accepted this form of payment and had huge success with it, which only led to Bloomingdale's and Macy's to accept them as payment in order to bring back customers and profits. Now, these and other large department stores issue their own cards and in 2003, there were more purchases made by credit card than cash for the first time. That same year, Fortune reported that some companies made more profits from their store-issued credit cards than from actual sales. Sears made more than half of its profits from credit cards and the now-bankrupt Circuit City made all of its profits on its credit cards.
Technological ChangesEastman Kodak was the world leader in the photographic company for decades. However, technology introduced new competitors. With the advent of digital cameras from traditional film camera producers such as Nikon, Canon, and Minolta, we also saw Samsung and Sony enter the photography industry. At the same time as this new technology became more and more accepted by consumers, by 2000, film cameras began to decline and digital cameras outsold film cameras by 2003. The sudden change from film to a digital format left Kodak scrambling to make the switch, which has put it on the back burner in the consumer photography market.
That's it for now as it's getting late and it is pretty basic, common sense stuff, and to be honest, is quite boring for me. Up next is the role of profits and losses.