New Jobless Number

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stebo0728
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So what do you guys make of these new jobless numbers today? 7.8% eh? Sounds good, from what I can tell its a bit fluffed though. Mind you I dont think its some intentional misrepresentation like a lot of republicans have come out to say today. Those guys sound as nutty as the MSNBC folks melting down after the debate. The numbers are what they are. But they are misleading. Check out this graphic:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/the-mcjob ... G9210083zE

Image

As nice as a lower score is for once, there's nothing pleasant about the truth of the numbers. Folks are WAY underemployed. Huge surges in low income jobs does not a recovery make.

There are other aspects to this too. For one, we gained 144k jobs in September. Besides the facts of the graphic above, that number barely keeps pace with population growth. How the hell then, if your gains the past few months are negative, and one month you gain barely enough to cover the "interest" so to speak, how does your score drop 3 tenths of a percent? The answer is, we've been concerned about the wrong metric all along. The only way those numbers make since is for the number of job seekers to fall. Imagine water in a bucket, and you want to get as close to full as possible. If you can't get enough water added, you have to get a smaller bucket. That's whats happened. The empty % of the bucket may have gone down, but thats because the bucket got smaller. Nothing to pop a cork about.


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bigbadberry3
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Now I hate to twist your logic, but you aren't entitled to a job.

If you stop looking for one, one ain't going to find you so why put those people in the statistic if they choose not to be there?

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stebo0728
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Well, thats true, but they aren't completely uninterested in a job either. They've given up, or they've decided to make due with McDonalds Kroger and Footlocker, and 3 hours sleep.

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WDRacing
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Because it's a "jobless number". When people can't find a job after 2 years of searching, sometimes they just stop searching. These numbers drop the % points so as to make the number more shiny looking. We're still not doing f*** all at creating jobs. BTW, 20,000 of those jobs created last month were in the Gov, not the private sector.

The actual unemployment number for the nation is currently 14.7%.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

I see your point about jobs not being an entitlement, I'm just saying we're far and away from actually curbing the job loss in this Nation.

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themadscientist
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I'd like to see two guys out of work. They were throw softballs at each other in Denver the other night.

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s0m3th1ngAZ
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Softballs of LIES

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themadscientist
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I watch any debate between this two like one would look at a car wreck or purposefully sniff a fart. Just how bad is it?

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stebo0728
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Do you watch Gary Johnson campaign like you'd watch a paraplegic trying to swim?

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themadscientist
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Romney supporter eh?

Have fun running interference for him, making excuses for a substandard candidate so you don't get his funk on you when you waste a vote on him. :chuckle:

I got the pooh on meh! :rotfl
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0F324755 ... re=related[/youtube]

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WDRacing
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A wasted vote would be for anyone NOT Romney, unless you are pro-Obama. We get it, you don't like Romney, we get it because it's all you ever talk about. Like it or not, there are only 2 candidates up for election. No one else has a snowballs chance in hell. So yeah, those of us that don't like the way the last 4 years have gone are probably supporting Romney.

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stebo0728
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Forgive me TMS, I had a feeling that would touch a nerve, I had to test my hypothesis. LOL

Im interested as to how a vote for Romney is a wasted vote though. Remember we don't like to use the word "wasted" when people vote their conscience. Futile as it may be, that is everyone's right as an American. Now lets see, which of the three candidates would a vote for most likely be futile? If your argument is that a vote for Romney is a waste because if he wins things wont change, then I suppose I cant argue against your belief. I fail to see, as unfortunate as it may be, how a vote for Johnson in our current political climate is anything but futile. I dont pay alot of attention to polling when it down to the wire like it is now between Obama and Romney, but when you see numbers for a candidate that could freeze water solid, thats a pretty good indicator that he's having a rough go.

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themadscientist
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Maybe a little. I know you too well to be truly put out. It's more two dudes messing with each other and I would do the same. :chuckle:

I know why you and Brian will hold your nose and vote for Romney, it is a fair argument in the real world, but ponder this.

If we always vote for the best of whatever the political machine lets us have, how do you expect things to ever change? Your prediction is only perpetuated by your own actions. You are the dutiful maintainers of your own cage. Unfortunately, people like me are trapped inside with you and are trying to saw through the bars, but you come along like a good slave and weld up the cuts.

I vote FOR something, you vote against something, you vote by default. That's a poor commentary on our culture, but it is, of course, spot on. The saying "good enough for government work" comes to mind.

Despite your assertions to the contrary, when Obama wins, it will not be my fault because I didn't vote for him. It will be the GOP's fault for shoving a weak repulsive candidate out there and telling me to vote for him or else. That s*** don't work on me. When he loses, ask yourself this. If everyone that voted for him against their will had voted instead for whoever really spoke to their values, would Obama be enjoying a second term? Too bad they wasted their votes.

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WDRacing
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Term limits would be my only suggestion if we ever want things to change.

The thought of being trapped inside a cage with you is kinda scary. I can't believe you just called me a slave...lol. I'm voting FOR Romney. He's the better of the two candidates by far imo.

If Obama wins, I'm holding you personally responsible.

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stebo0728
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The problem is this. Its impossible for conservatives to win a three man race when two of them are at least somewhat conservative. The conservative vote erodes for both candidates to a point that neither stand a chance. If you want to see real change, it needs to be a four man race, with two being conservative/libertarian and two being liberal/progressive/green. We have a libertarian party now rising, that seeks to compete for conservative leaning voters. Until there's a party that competes for liberal leaning voters, this retarded two man nonsense will continue to dominate the cycle.

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themadscientist
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WDRacing wrote:Term limits would be my only suggestion if we ever want things to change.

The thought of being trapped inside a cage with you is kinda scary. I can't believe you just called me a slave...lol.
I'd take you for walks.... :chuckle:

Image

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themadscientist
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stebo0728 wrote:The problem is this. Its impossible for conservatives to win a three man race when two of them are at least somewhat conservative. The conservative vote erodes for both candidates to a point that neither stand a chance. If you want to see real change, it needs to be a four man race, with two being conservative/libertarian and two being liberal/progressive/green. We have a libertarian party now rising, that seeks to compete for conservative leaning voters. Until there's a party that competes for liberal leaning voters, this retarded two man nonsense will continue to dominate the cycle.

I think that's a misconception. Libertarian ideas appeal to moderate liberals just like moderate conservatives. The issues that attract them are different, but I'd say it's 60/40 cons/libs. Think about these issues.

For conservatives you have strong immigration enforcement, but also with reforms that will streamline legal immigration and give "undocumented workers" (I love that wordplay :rolleyes: ) away out of the shadows for the liberals.

Health care is looked at with the liberal-freindly admission that the system is expensive and flawed and needs to be fixed, but with smart market solutions that please the conservatives.

Conservatives can hang their hats on strong defense of the second ammendment, yes, but for liberals whose antiwar rhetoric is more than just words, there's only one guy talking about bringing people home right now.

On the environment it could be argued that the policies are more business freindly than planet freindly, but the subsidization of big oil is out of business so it's a balanced approach.

Liberals say they are fighting for civil liberty despite their support for the patriot act and other such measures. Who is the only guy talking about repealing all that? Exactly. he's also the same guy talking about equal marriage rights for same sex couples. You don't consider that a conservative stand do you?

When Romney attacks federal control of education, do you think he's alone? Tax reform? He's whispering when a certain candate is pounding his fist and yelling. That's sure enough a conservative stand, but what about free speech?

Liberals want free speech on the web? They say they do. So does a certain candidate. Weird huh?

Sure liberals won't like having entitlement programs scrutinized, but they sure will love it when the defense budget gets the same discerning eye. Both voting blocks claim to care about deficits and here is a guy talking about balancing the federal budget YEAR ONE. Put up or shut up people.

There's something there for everyone and to suggest a candidate like Johnson doesn't appeal to a broad base ignores basic analysis. America is like that girl that keeps saying she's looking for a funny, smart, sincere guy, but keeps dating ripped pretty boys who like to party all the time and smack them around. At some point the American electorate is going to need to confront their complicity in the ails that befall them.

If Obama really and truly after hard scrutity speaks to your values and walks the walk on them to, you should vote for him. I won't think any less of you. Hell, I'll respect your decision because I know you put some thought into it and your are really voting your values. even if I disagree with the values you hold, I cannot but appreciate the process you vetted your choice by and would work with you on solving the nation's problems any day.

If your vote for Romney is arrived at through the same process than the same applies.

If, however, you vote for Obama out of laziness, reflex, anger at or fear of the Republicans or the same motivators lead you to the open arms of the massachusetts forehead, you are a willing sheep and deserve the shearing that comes no matter which smiling ***hole is running the shears. I may like you personally, but as a citizen I detest you and hold zero respect for your voice as it filters through a defeatist mindset and is more repugnant than simple ignorance because it is the product of an intelligent person purposefully casting aside logic.

The sheep locked in the pen with you who realize they are trapped and want to escape wish you would get with the program and stop pushing us all into the barn out of habit. Quisling would be proud.

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themadscientist
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stebo0728 wrote:The problem is this. Its impossible for conservatives to win a three man race when two of them are at least somewhat conservative. The conservative vote erodes for both candidates to a point that neither stand a chance. If you want to see real change, it needs to be a four man race, with two being conservative/libertarian and two being liberal/progressive/green. We have a libertarian party now rising, that seeks to compete for conservative leaning voters. Until there's a party that competes for liberal leaning voters, this retarded two man nonsense will continue to dominate the cycle.

I think that's a misconception. Libertarian ideas appeal to moderate liberals just like moderate conservatives. The issues that attract them are different, but I'd say it's 60/40 cons/libs. Think about these issues.

For conservatives you have strong immigration enforcement, but also with reforms that will streamline legal immigration and give "undocumented workers" (I love that wordplay :rolleyes: ) away out of the shadows for the liberals.

Health care is looked at with the liberal-freindly admission that the system is expensive and flawed and needs to be fixed, but with smart market solutions that please the conservatives.

Conservatives can hang their hats on strong defense of the second ammendment, yes, but for liberals whose antiwar rhetoric is more than just words, there's only one guy talking about bringing people home right now.

On the environment it could be argued that the policies are more business freindly than planet freindly, but the subsidization of big oil is out of business so it's a balanced approach.

Liberals say they are fighting for civil liberty despite their support for the patriot act and other such measures. Who is the only guy talking about repealing all that? Exactly. he's also the same guy talking about equal marriage rights for same sex couples. You don't consider that a conservative stand do you?

When Romney attacks federal control of education, do you think he's alone? Tax reform? He's whispering when a certain candate is pounding his fist and yelling. That's sure enough a conservative stand, but what about free speech?

Liberals want free speech on the web? They say they do. So does a certain candidate. Weird huh?

Sure liberals won't like having entitlement programs scrutinized, but they sure will love it when the defense budget gets the same discerning eye. Both voting blocks claim to care about deficits and here is a guy talking about balancing the federal budget YEAR ONE. Put up or shut up people.

There's something there for everyone and to suggest a candidate like Johnson doesn't appeal to a broad base ignores basic analysis. America is like that girl that keeps saying she's looking for a funny, smart, sincere guy, but keeps dating ripped pretty boys who like to party all the time and smack them around. At some point the American electorate is going to need to confront their complicity in the ails that befall them.

If Obama really and truly after hard scrutity speaks to your values and walks the walk on them too, you should vote for him. I won't think any less of you. Hell, I'll respect your decision because I know you put some thought into it and you are really voting your values. Even if I disagree with the values you hold, I cannot but appreciate the process you vetted your choice by and would work with you on solving the nation's problems any day.

If your vote for Romney is arrived at through the same process than the same applies.

If, however, you vote for Obama or Romney out of laziness, reflex, anger at or fear of the other guy, you are a willing sheep and deserve the shearing that comes no matter which smiling ***hole is running the shears. I may like you personally, but as a citizen I detest you and hold zero respect for your voice as it filters through a defeatist mindset and is more repugnant than simple ignorance because it is the product of an intelligent person purposefully casting aside logic.

The sheep locked in the pen with you who realize they are trapped and want to escape wish you would get with the program and stop pushing us all into the barn out of habit. Quisling would be proud.

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themadscientist
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After reading that again, I thought of this. Did I really pull a Quisling reference out of my bag? :chuckle:
Image

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stebo0728
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Well, new numbers are out now, and California managed to get theirs in on time this time, and its doesn't look good! I was never on the "democrats rigged the numbers!" bandwagon, and I'm still not. But this just goes to show how inconsequential one number can be. The trend is what you look at, and our unemployment trend is not good.

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Marenta
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Reagan is to Republicans what Obama is to Democrats.

Unemployment was semi-low at the start of their terms, shot up about 1/2 way through their terms and fell back down towards the end.

I'm not crying over either number. Neither BO or MR are going to do a damned thing when they take office. It's the way of the world.

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stebo0728
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But wait, your comparison is flawed, and that's the point of my lastest post. The numbers here at the end of BO's term are NOT going down as it might have appeared. Though I don't buy into intentional number rigging, the numbers are indeed rigged. Self rigged you might say.

1. California had not reported, which is one of the largest of the 57 states. You think that might have had an impact on the numbers?

2. We have to start using U6 as the metric. The favorable 7.8 number is garbage, because it doesn't take the size of the overall container into account. If you're closer to filling your container because you got a smaller container, you've not increased the volume of your content, you've just gotten a smaller bucket.


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