Post by
Betimbe »
https://forums.nicoclub.com/betimbe-u75440.html
Sun Nov 18, 2007 12:45 pm
If there were ever an occasion in which leasing was financially a better option than buying, it would be where you would rather have the finance company bear the financial risk that the car will be worth less in 2 or 3 years than everybody currently expects. That might be the case here.
Whether you're thinking about it or not, when you buy a car you're calculating in a timeframe of ownership and a residual value you think the car will have. When you lease, that calculation is explicit. If you're betting the 2008 A/C will turn out to hold onto its value better than the standard depreciation offered by the banks, you should buy. If you think it won't, or even if you're just fearful that it won't and don't want to be stuck with a car worth less than you predicted when you know you won't want the car anymore, you should lease.
Even in the first scenario, there's a way to recapture the depreciation that wound up not occurring. I did this with my 2004 Passat Wagon. Leased it for three years. At lease end, my buy-out was $2,500 less than the book value of the car (the car had lower-than-expected mileage and was generally more popular than the finance companies had guessed when they calculated the depreciated value). So I paid the depreciated value stated in the lease and took title to the car. I could have turned around and sold it for $2,500 more than I paid for it, but I decided to hold onto it because the sales tax would have eaten some of that figure. As luck would have it, it was totaled six months later, and the insurance company paid book value. I don't fool myself into thinking this was "profit" -- it was really only a refund of overpaid depreciation during the lease term -- but it allowed me to optionally recapture that money. If, on the other hand, the car had been worth less than the depreciated value, I would have surrendered it at lease-end and walked away, the loss falling on the finance company.
So when you lease, you essentially get to decide whether to buy the car at two points in its lifespan, and you might be able to make a beneficial deal at both points. This might be especially true here, where demand for a new model makes dealers less flexible on price at the beginning of the lease.
Finally, let's face it, gran turismo coupes are a market segment for young people with money and no kids -- i.e., people who want new cars more than they want three-year-old cars. The A/C is in its first model year, and there might be bugs that make it depreciate faster than average. Leasing a car under these circumstances is far from stupid -- it puts the risk that the car will be a used-market dud on a faceless finance company rather than on your family. If you know you're going to grow out of the car in three years, I'm not 100% confident there will be a great deal of demand for this car in the used market. Whether I'm right or wrong about that, it may make sense for me not to carry that risk in my financial portfolio, in which case I would lease.