Iranian Presidential Election 2009

[HashiriyaS14]

This section isn't limited necessarily to US politics, so here we go.

Who thinks that this was rigged?

We all know my predisposition against "conspiracies", but dozens of foreign analysts and some governments are expressing skepticism on the results. It is incredibly unlikely that Moussavi would have lost his own hometown of Tabriz by such a wide margin....

Additionally, I find it equally unlikely that Karoubi would have won less than 1% of the vote.

Thoughts?

[heliochrome85]

lurking and procrastination combine to result in a post.

i highly suspect foul play due to the way moussavi had been campaigning. The official election committee actually said the election was not legitamate. That beign said, it is hard to overestimate the control the Supeme Ruler Khameni has in the process and I have a hard time believing that this was done without his consent.

Iran needs reform. NOW.

[themadscientist]

The same could be said for America.

[HashiriyaS14]

lurking and procrastination combine to result in a post.

i highly suspect foul play due to the way moussavi had been campaigning. The official election committee actually said the election was not legitamate. That beign said, it is hard to overestimate the control the Supeme Ruler Khameni has in the process and I have a hard time believing that this was done without his consent.

Iran needs reform. NOW.

^^I pretty much think this whole thing is actually Khameni's idea.

First he has a "discussion" with Khatami and then Khatami withdraws. Khatami denied this, but it's obvious that Khameni told him to opt out. Then the wireless/internet blackouts occur, something that Khameni MUST have had some hand in.....now NO skepticism from him at all on this?

Khameni wants 4 more years of Ahmadinejad, period. In fact, I suspect he is moving towards abandoning any pretense of representative rule in Iran, period.

Khomeini was wiser than this, he let both sides win once in awhile and was fairly sensitive to what Iranians wanted at any given moment. Khameni is a different animal, he's trying to consolidate power and form a dictatorship. I hope his people erupt beneath him.

[heliochrome85]

makes you wonder, were things really all that bad under the Shah?

Im of the opinion, the middle east is not meant to be ruled by its people. For millenia, we have been set in our ways. Unfortunately, the idea of democracy, where you listen to others, is one of little interest in that region of the world. Iraq has never been self goverened (even during the Caliphate.) Iran has been more or less the same. just a series of Shahs. unfortunately, the only reason why israel is able to maintain a government that is somewhat democratic, is due to the fact that most native israelis were at one point from other parts of the western world. Exposure to actual democracy is critical. Until then, we will see these sham elections staged.

[HashiriyaS14]

And then oddly enough, this go-round, Iran's people appear to have made the correct decision, but the would-be outgoing administration doesn't seem to want to vacate.

Really, Ahmadinejad has been a proxy for the policies of the Ayatollah. Ahmadinejad's unpopularity is Khameni's unpopularity, and so this is really a referendum on the Ayatollah. He doesn't like that much, and so he's trying to force the issue with a rigged vote and PR, but it seems like it may not work.

They announced an election probe today, and while they could just announce "Probe completed, Ahmedi wins!".....I somehow doubt they'll do that. They can't complete a probe and not publicly release results as it would invalidate any such probe, unless the whole thing is just a stalling measure to allow tempers to simmer down.

We'll see, but I really hope the whole place just goes nuts. A little revolution once in awhile is not a bad thing.

[szh]

makes you wonder, were things really all that bad under the Shah?

Some people, who got on the wrong side of the Savak, might say "yes".

Z

[heliochrome85]

agreed. but how is that different from this? There are videos floating around of the "security forces" breaking into private citizens homes, and brutally assaulting them. what we are watching here, is the Ayatollah trying despirately to keep what shreds of popularity he had left. This is a "Supreme Leader" who is afraid of losing his job. The next week or so will be very very interesting.

[heliochrome85]

http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=360933

[Cold_Zero]

It sounds like the only things that Mousavi differs from Ahmadinejad is on jobs. They do not disagree on Foreign Policy and Iranian Nuclear Development Program.

Someone said that Mousavi was the founder of the Iranian Security Forces and has claimed to have killed 31 people during the Revolution?

Have to ask if Iran would be any better under Mousavi?

[heliochrome85]

the difference is that mousavi is also quite progressive about womens rights.

What is really at stake here is that the established status quo, from the supreme leader on down is being challenged, in a way it has never been challenged. mousavi, karrabi, doesnt matter. What matters is IRAN is changing from what it was, an islamic theocracy, to what it will be, something else.

Obama's positioning has been spot on in this situation. the last thing the iranians want is US interference. They are willing to fight their own battles. He has let them. believe me, the message isnt lost.

[Cold_Zero]

I hear what you are saying, and my point was to draw out that Mousavi only differs from Ahmadinejad on domestic policies. Things like Foreign Policy, Iranian Nuclear Development and Hezbollah will not change, if Mousavi won the election. I also was trying to point out that Mousavi is a part of the system. Sometimes I think these guys are created in order to give the appearance of reform and dissent, but I have no evidence to back that up in Mousavi's case.

Status Quo- I think after King Assad died we had the same hopes for Syria with his son. Some how nothing really changed. But then again, this is not about Syria and you know we will never really agree on a certain country that neighbors Syria.

I dont harbor much hope for true reform in Iran, although I would love for Iran and the Iranian people to be friends with the US. The Iranians that I know are great people.bud

[heliochrome85]

by no means is mussavi a revolutionary. he will NOT overhaul the system the way many seem to think. He is a product of the same system he is trying to overcome. the difference is that he is more moderate on many of his policies, and far less bellicose than say, Ahmadinejad. As it stands now, his challenge isnt for the presidency, his challenge is to the establishment and the Ayatollah himself. That, my friend, is the excitement. Whther things will change or not is unknown, but i do know this, the end is near for the current regime. We can only go up from here.

[Cold_Zero]

We all know that change is a slow process. Especially with cultures, countries and people that have existed over tens of thousands of years. I wasnt trying to paint Mousavi as another Ahmadinejad, but slapping the term 'Reformer' in front of a name in this case doesnt necessarily mean the whole host of things that Americans associate with that term in the Middle East. I still believe that Mousavi is tied to the Political structure of Iran and is not much different than the former Iranian Presidents.

It is all a mute point. Israel need Ahmadinejad in the same way that Ahmadinejad needs Israel. And the President's hands off policy for Iran and North Korea will do wonders for Nuclear Proliferation.

[HashiriyaS14]

A.) "moot" point

B.). Helio is right in the big picture, this isn't about an election anymore, it's about a second Iranian revolution.

Bud's points about Moussavi in particular are right on though.

[Cold_Zero]

While Mousavi appears to be the focal point of the people's outrage for the current political process in Iran and no doubt, possibly outrage against the Islamic Revolution, I think that is where Mousavi's role ends. I would still like to point out that Mousavi is deeply linked to the Iranian Security Forces as one of the former key figures in the organization. While it might help the Americans sleep better at night slapping the term Reformer at the front of his name, I don't really buy any of it. Possibly because I am highly skeptical of 'Security Forces' that only prop up governments and offer no security to the people they are charged to protect.

[480sx]

Good thread.

Im not sure if this belongs here, its focusing more on the aftermath of the elections. If a mod feels its appropriate, you can split it off but i think under the title this could fit.

So you all have probably heard about the Ayatollah's announcement on Friday that all protests were banned. That didnt stop protesters from taking to the streets in numbers on Saturday, as had been planned for a while IIRC.

This is a report on what happened at one specific place of some importance, although it has been very difficult to 'independently verify' because the Revolutionary Guard has cracked down hard on foreign media coverage. They have also done the same with internet access; it has been described as very difficult to obtain, and sporadic.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8112812.stm

Some 1,000 people had gathered on Haft-e Tir Square despite the warning from Iran's Revolutionary Guards against holding unapproved rallies. Reports say the police were reinforced by Basij militiamen wielding clubs. ----

An eyewitness living close to the square told the BBC News website he had seen riot police "on every corner and by every set of traffic lights" as he drove home on Monday. ----

"The Guards will firmly confront in a revolutionary way rioters and those who violate the law," they(Rev Guard) added. ----

Scary ish

[480sx]

I heard a pretty interesting report from NPR at 5:20 EST yesterday on the Iranian's control over the internet. It has now come to light that last year two companies from separate countries sold Iran a device known as simply "Monitoring Equipment" at the time apparently.. This 'Information Center' taps hardlines, in this situation, the ones that run in and out of Iran. Basically, this technology allows you to 'nearly' completely control isolated portions of the internet, or internal networks.

It intercepts each packet, that being a bit of information(say an email, blog, ect) sent primarily in this case, and decides what to do with it. The end user ultimately can do anything with this hardware. It can be programs to simply automatically block some packets from being sent by key words ect. It also allows for the interception of such data. It allows for the review, saves IP addresses, ect.

The two companies that sold this equipment directly to Iran was a German conglomerate and a company that is some how directly related to Nokia, and based/ran out of the good ol USA.

[480sx]

Again, on NPR this morning at about the aftermath of the Iranian elections. It really appears that the country is becoming to come undone, and there is REAL potential for a power struggle. This was the NPR interview with a reporter who has been souly reporting on Iran since the 70's.

"Rafsanjani Is Major Influence In Iran" 6 min ....audio.. http://www.npr.org/templates/p...97049

This is just seems blatantly stupid for Iran to do. The Guardian Council promised to review, and they started to. They initially came out and said that there were significant irregularities. The next day they came out, just as they started the review thats taking place completely behind closed doors and said there is no irregularities.

"Iran's Top Electoral Body Says Election Valid" - 4 Minhttp://www.npr.org/templates/p...96994

"I have made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and is not interfering in Iran's affairs," Obama said. "But we must also bear witness to the courage and dignity of the Iranian people, and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place."

You know, i keep hearing awesome things come out of this guys mouth as far as foreign policy is concerned. I dont think we elected the wrong guy, considering our choices at the time. He at least has an infinitely better speech writer and team.
Modified by 480sx at 11:44 AM 6/23/2009

[szh]

Z