Post by
Encryptshun »
https://forums.nicoclub.com/encryptshun-u67236.html
Fri Aug 13, 2010 7:24 am
There is some truth to this, of course, but the article makes lots of assumptions which err on the side of sensationalistic media. First off, it's going to be 5 years (give or take) before the economy begins to exhibit any significant and stable growth. Until that happens, the only white-collar industry that will hire aggressively is contingent labor/professional services. Companies are being conservative, which means that if they need resources right now due to a blip or slight uptick, they are going to hire external resources to fill those positions rather than bringing someone in as a full employee. This saves them having to pay fringe, SUTA, FUTA, FICA & workman's comp, and payroll taxes. And right now they can get a contract worker with stellar qualifications and experience for much less than they could get a permanent employee for 4 years ago and use that resource on a project basis with a defined ROI. Eventually, as the economy really does start to pick back up and companies feel more secure hiring permanent employees to rebuild their institutional knowledge base they will suck up the applicants who have been out of the market for a while because they will be able to hire them cheaper and those resources will be behind the professional learning curve (and therefore willing to start back at the bottom). Those who have weathered the layoffs will either get tapped for upper management positions, retained if there is an ongoing need for that job, or will seek out promotional positions at another company.
If I had to put money on it, though, I'd say this recession's longest-lasting effect on companies is how they structure their workforces. I don't think we'll see a return to the bloated payrolls of the last decade for at least another 20 years, and I think that some companies will choose to adopt a more "internal consultant" approach to staffing, hiring external resources for all but the most core jobs. That way if we do end up with a delayed double-dip recession, they won't have to stand the severance costs of another series of layoffs.
/2cents