If You're Going to Look at Polls, Look Here

[stebo0728]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

RCP runs an average, adding each new poll as it comes along to the running average. Some interesting finds:

RCP Average for New Jersey is only +0.1% for Obama. That surprised me.

RCP Overall Average is +0.9% for Romney. Thats up from +0.7% Romney two days ago.

The page I linked is an electoral college map, showing current status, either strong/likely/leaning or toss up. You can click a button on the map "Create You Own Map" and change some of the toss ups based on how you think they'll go, and see what the delegate count looks like.

Currently it seems the race almost completely hinges on Ohio. Win Ohio, win the world. But strange things are happening. PA seems to be in play now, some disagree, and RCP has yet to mark them "toss up". WI is starting to trend Romney, CO is trending Romney, VA is trending Romney. There is a perfect storm out there, in which Romney can still win without Ohio, but its a long shot.

Put aside your political leanings on this particular thread, and lets talk ball a bit, see what you guys think, how's it going to play out?

[bigbadberry3]

Anyone with a math or science background is not very swayed by polls as part of the job is to find weaknesses in data. Polls are easily manipulated, very easily. With that being said I don't question Mo-mentum but I don't know if O-mentum is as low as it appears as more reports of rape keep surfacing.

[stebo0728]

Oh you're completely right. Polls are definitely skewable. Its funny though, early October dems were "look at the polls, look at Rasmussen, look at Gallup". Now they're all "ohhh those silly polls dont matter". I happen to think that the polls are showing a lighter than reality Romney trend, but that's speculation. I don't put any major weight into these things, but its fun to watch them, speculate on them, dig in and see whats changing and how.