Hillary '12?

[AZhitman]

A third of Americans would prefer HRO to BHO. Interesting.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... pt=hp_abar

My question is, why the quick change of plans? She ran like gangbusters in '08, now she's said she won't seek office after her current term is fulfilled?

[mattblancarte]

I think she is wary of running against Obama after getting slapped down in the last election.

Once bitten, twice shy...

In terms of why voters are more interested in her as opposed to Obama? He's a liar of epic proportions. We are still in the fertile crescent, bombing and shooting people for no good reason.

[AZhitman]

I can always count on you to cut straight to the chase.

I wonder, however, if there's more to it than that (once bitten). She doesn't strike me as one who rolls over in the face of defeat. The odds aren't overwhelming... wonder if there's some undue Chi-town-style influence at work behind the scenes?

[szh]

A third of Americans would prefer HRO to BHO. Interesting.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20 ... pt=hp_abar

My question is, why the quick change of plans? She ran like gangbusters in '08, now she's said she won't seek office after her current term is fulfilled?

Really, she made that decision when she accepted the offer of Sec of State in the first place.

And that was a very good decision and trade-off choice for her - I grok'ed her reason for it and agree it was a good choice.

She stayed in the public limelight, she got a lot of foreign policy experience under her belt - to do an eventual good job as POTUS, and she learned the inner workings of the White House in a very different way than as First Lady.

And, if Obama had really messed up in his first term, then she could easily have resigned her [current] office and run in 2012. But, given the current status, it is more rational for her to set her sights for 2016.

It was a calculated gamble back then, and as long as she continues to do reasonably well, she has a much better chance in 2016 than in 2012. By declaring that she is not running in 2012, she does not give Obama a reason to let her out as Sec of State if he wins for another 4 years - that would lower her success chances in 2016. Yeah, she might be saying that she does not want the office, but I don't think it is highly likely that she will stay out of politics entirely for the next four years.

Plus, if she loses to Obama in 2012, then her office of Sec of State goes away far more surely, and removes her from the limelight. And, it is better not to have another nomination loss under her belt too, since Obama is likely to be a shoe-in as the Democratic Party candidate. Incumbents have a lot of clout for the second term (which, by the way, is the reason I prefer a longer, single-term run for POTUS - maybe something like a single 6 year term makes sense for us).

She is much smarter than that, and has "done well" in this regard.

Z

[Encryptshun]

This is reflective of the fact that the economy is the most important issue to the average American. As Secretary of State, HRC gets all the limelight for the positive foreign relations press (the Arab Spring is viewed favorably by lots of Americans), and has to take none of the heat for the economy.

Anyone can claim to predict the "what-if", but I bet if the situation was reversed and HRC won in 2008 with BHO as Sec of State, that poll would have showed the same result flipped.

[mattblancarte]

I wonder, however, if there's more to it than that (once bitten). She doesn't strike me as one who rolls over in the face of defeat. The odds aren't overwhelming... wonder if there's some undue Chi-town-style influence at work behind the scenes?

I'm sure there is. You scratch my back, I scratch yours. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a 16 year oval office plan in effect right now.

Z and Encryptshun covered a few hypotheses which make total sense.

I wouldn't underestimate how the previous election affected her political strategy, though. Z is right, Obama's term hasn't been a complete disaster in the eyes of most Democrats, so running against him in a primary is just not a good idea.

She knows what she is doing. No need to hurry, the presidency is hers in 2016 unless the GOP comes up with a magical candidate that can stand up to her political prowess.

[mattblancarte]

Anyone can claim to predict the "what-if", but I bet if the situation was reversed and HRC won in 2008 with BHO as Sec of State, that poll would have showed the same result flipped.

That is a reasonable assumption.

[IBCoupe]

So, 66% of Americans, regardless of party, think we wouldn't be better off with Hillary, then?

Given that it's just shy of 1000 people and doesn't really account for the differentiation between the kinds of folks who'd make that decision (...Democrats) and the kinds of folks who wouldn't (...everyone else), I'm not sure how notable this poll is. If the majority of people saying we'd be better off with Hillary than Obama are already Republicans, then there's not that much to it, is there?

[bigbadberry3]

Maybe she's waiting for '16?

[themadscientist]

Maybe she's waiting for '16?

No that's Bill in the limo parked in front of the high school with a four pack of Smirnoff Ice.