CBS Poll: McCain, Obama Tied

[audtatious]

McCain Closes Eight-Point Gap From Poll Taken Last Weekend

(CBS) The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain is now even at 42 percent, according to a new CBS News poll conducted Monday-Wednesday of this week. Twelve percent are undecided according to the poll, and one percent said they wouldn't vote.

This is in contrast to a poll conducted last weekend, where the Obama-Biden ticket led McCain-Palin by eight points, 48 percent to 40 percent.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories...shtml

[rn79870]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Gallop daily polls still have it Obama 49%, McCain 42% (9/04/08) A 1% closure due to the momentium of the RNC.

Like we said, the poll that counts is Nov 4th.

[audtatious]

Then why do you keep posting Gallup when historically polls have meant absolutely nothing? That's the only reason I started this thread in the first place.

[rn79870]

Polls tend to show what people believe at a given point in time. There isn't a poll out there that can predict what a voter will believe at some future time. While I find comfort in from leading in a poll, I'd never bet money on that lead lasting for two more months. There are too many variables.

[srellim234]

Will someone PLEASE just start a sticky thread at the top that just says "Polls"? Keep all of this garbage that changes daily up there in one spot where you guys can declare victory based on whtever day it happens to be?

Polls vary. Pollsters vary. Methodology varies. Everybody posting new threads every day based on whatever their poll pulled out of their rear-ends and published this morning is meaningless.

If you put all of the polls under one title up there on top, you will have a compehensive collection of tracking stuff to look at when the election is done and over with. Trends, who got it right or wrong, all that stuff.

Spare the rest of us from your meaningless polls.

[dusred]

A sticky with polls would be nice I'll admit.

Polls aren't solid by any means. I think they are meant to give a ballpark figure. It is virtually impossible to have a completely accurate poll. . . especially when it is down to 5%.

[Imakulate]

*****Frank Lutz!"

Mod note:

Let play by the adult rules here and knock off the hate bombs.

[audtatious]

What does Frank Lutz have to do with this thread?

If you are here to simply troll you will be removed.

[rn79870]

A sticky with polls would be nice I'll admit.

Maybe it would be a good idea for the remainder of the campaign. I'll see if I canput together a few good links when I get some time.

[dusred]

Maybe it would be a good idea for the remainder of the campaign. I'll see if I canput together a few good links when I get some time.

[Imakulate]

Well I was referring to a piece that Penn and Teller did on polls. I figured someone must have seen it because it was ranked high on youtube(I can't link since I'm at work). It should how poll questions can be worded in such a way to get whatever response you want out of people. It doesn't exactly apply to a simple question between two choices, but it also hit on some other points that make me question the purpose of a poll in the first place. One being why should I care what other people are thinking about an issue and another being the fact that most of the people polled are usually from a same type of demographic, like those with home phone lines. Either way I wasn't explicitly attacking Lutz.

[szh]

Like we said, the poll that counts is Nov 4th.

I definitely agree that the "poll" on Nov 4th is the one that matters.

However, polls taken earlier can have both a certain positive and a negative effect. Most importantly, they can influence the outcome, rather than report on the trends!

They tend to make people work harder if they are behind. Helps energize them. It can also can lead to people not going to the voting station "oh, we are so far behind, it does not matter if I vote or not - we are gonna lose".

They can make the leaders complacent. They think they don't have to do anything since they are ahead. That can lead to people not going to the voting station "oh, we are so far ahead, it does not matter if I vote or not - we are gonna win".

Obviously, both are mistakes, IMHO!

It is for similar reason that early results from the "Eastern time zone" states can have both a good and a bad effect. Early results can lead to a voting malaise in the western states (as if Calfornia needs anything more to help with that - we are such a loser state! ) with both a "we are losing anyway" and a "we are winning anyway" attitude. And it can also energize the voter turn out for the trailing candidates to get help change the outcome.

Z

[audtatious]

Well I was referring to a piece that Penn and Teller did on polls. I figured someone must have seen it because it was ranked high on youtube(I can't link since I'm at work). It should how poll questions can be worded in such a way to get whatever response you want out of people. It doesn't exactly apply to a simple question between two choices, but it also hit on some other points that make me question the purpose of a poll in the first place. One being why should I care what other people are thinking about an issue and another being the fact that most of the people polled are usually from a same type of demographic, like those with home phone lines. Either way I wasn't explicitly attacking Lutz.

I was just wondering where it was going and what the point was (and we've had trolls before). You may want to add a bit to it so others of us can get in on your point

Carry on.

[audtatious]

Gallup is a couple of days behind but as of this morning:

"Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Now at 4 Points"

So, by Monday we should know what the overall change is after the DNC/RNC. Yeah, they mean nothing in general.

[audtatious]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Gallop daily polls still have it Obama 49%, McCain 42% (9/04/08) A 1% closure due to the momentium of the RNC.

Like we said, the poll that counts is Nov 4th.

Gallup poll today: Obama lead shrunk to 2 points:



Zogby "The Ticket Horserace" poll (FWIW) has McCain-Palin over Obama-Biden 47.1% to 44.6% with their "One-on-One Horserace" poll showing McCain over Obama 48.8% to 45.7%.

Per the Rassmussen page they are tied now.

Things be changin......

[szh]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

Gallop daily polls still have it Obama 49%, McCain 42% (9/04/08) A 1% closure due to the momentium of the RNC.

Like we said, the poll that counts is Nov 4th.

This SAME Gallup daily poll that you posted, now shows it as McCain (48%), Obama (45%) (09/09/2008).



Right direction!! But, yes, Nov 4th is what counts.

Quote »Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.[/quote]Z

[srellim234]

Z- This is actually directed at daily poll posters here. I just clicked on reply to you because it was the one at the bottom of the thread. Now, for this public service message:

OMG!!!! Your sky is falling! His sky isn't falling! Tomorrow his might be and yours may not be! Gallup says so! Reuters has it the other way around!

SO WHAT?

My suggestion would be to get off the computer and go out and campaign for your candidate if you're that interested in changing the polls. Gloating or crying about it here isn't going to change a darned thing.

[szh]

My suggestion would be to get off the computer and go out and campaign for your candidate

I am indeed doing so! I decided right after I discovered how badly we here are slinging mud on Palin.

BTW, I rarely see positive threads from people here about their party candidates ... just negative crap about the other party candidates. Mostly from the Democrat side, particularly those who seem to be obsessed with an Anti-Palin approach.

Z

[S13_love]

polls dont mean s*** man, like what everybody else said, the one on nov.4 is the one that counts, oh and im sure that cbs would like to believe the mccain is tied with obama

[szh]

polls dont mean s*** man

Correct. But they influence people ... look at one of my earlier posts to see why I believe that.

, like what everybody else said, the one on nov.4 is the one that counts

Absolutely!

, oh and im sure that cbs would like to believe the mccain is tied with obama

Umm? Not sure what the CBS reference means here. Gallup is the one in the business of doing polls. CBS and others just report them and other pollsters.

Z

[rn79870]

BTW, I rarely see positive threads from people here about their party candidates ... just negative crap about the other party candidates. Mostly from the Democrat side, particularly those who seem to be obsessed with an Anti-Palin approach.

Z

You mean positive stuff like the Obama and Paris Hilton ads your party is still running? Funny the Republicans start it, and when what went around comes around, they call foul.

[S13_love]

Correct. But they influence people ... look at one of my earlier posts to see why I believe that.

Absolutely!

Umm? Not sure what the CBS reference means here. Gallup is the one in the business of doing polls. CBS and others just report them and other pollsters.

Z

lol sorry about, im a lil bias against news and the polls and all that, its just i watched fox news a few times and all they did was attack the democrats pretty bad and then praise republicans, imo polls shouldn't even influence people though

[rn79870]

Don't worry the polls will go nuts again after the debates, and after several other things on the horizon. They mean nothing until Nov 4th.

[szh]

Don't worry the polls will go nuts again after the debates, and after several other things on the horizon. They mean nothing until Nov 4th.

Yes, I completely agree that the "poll" on Nov 4th is what matters ... but, now, white women voters is causing a major swing to occur. In the interest of providing the same poll information as before, here is the latest one as of (09/10/2008):



McCain-Palin is appealing to a lot of people - apparently, the Hillary supporters who are quite mad at Obama are part of this poll, and they will be part of the voting in November - the trend is not slacking off!

Similarly, this is what the Independents are saying ... for now:



I iterate: These are simply polls, but they are indicators.

As always, the true outcome will be what happens on Nov 4th.

Z