Can or Will Obama Win Indiana? (Split Thread)

[Cold_Zero]

One observation, I have noticed that Obama has pulled out all the stops here in Indiana. Where unlike most Presidential elections we may get 1 or 2 fund raising visits from the Republican Candidate. After the primary, Obama keeps coming back to Indiana for rallies. Michelle Obama is in Fishers (where I work) Indiana to speak at a convention.

Indiana could be in play ... which would throw off my tallies.

[Jimefam]

That has been one of the strategies of the obama campaign. To campaign in states that are traditionally out of play but are relatively close to force mccain to spend more money in those states then he would like. I dont think he will turn any red states blue but maybe it will give him the money advantage in the swing states. I dont have time to do mine now but will soon.

[HashiriyaS14]

One observation, I have noticed that Obama has pulled out all the stops here in Indiana. Where unlike most Presidential elections we may get 1 or 2 fund raising visits from the Republican Candidate. After the primary, Obama keeps coming back to Indiana for rallies. Michelle Obama is in Fishers (where I work) Indiana to speak at a convention.

Indiana could be in play ... which would throw off my tallies.

A good observation of the sort that can only be made by a resident.

Currently, it looks like McCain is ahead there by about six points, which is considerable but not insurmountable. It will all depend on Obama's "get out the vote" campaigns, as that isn't picked up well by the polls.

I still think it'll end up going for McCain, but it could be interesting.

It will be interesting to see whether or not Obama can continue to afford to campaign heavily in these committed red states, as his fundraising efforts have hit some snags recently.

Despite Bud and I's banter, everyone else please keep this thread to complete electoral predictions ONLY, one per user. I really want to see some more! Analyzing a particular candidate's road to 270 votes is one of the most fun parts of the election process, IMO.

EDIT: When I said I would delete non-material posts from this thread, I meant it. I just deleted Feather's. Every post after this one had better be an electoral prediction.

[Cold_Zero]

I split this into its own thread to keep in line with Hash's OP. I think we can discuss this in its own thread and keep the other thread as our Electoral Predictions.Sorry about that Hash.bud

[HashiriyaS14]

Sorry about that Hash.

No worries, it's a good topic.

My firm actually owns some office buildings in Indianapolis. I might be out there early next year to check them out and go to the Speedway museum. I'll have to look you up and we can lament about what will almost surely be a dismal Skins year.

[Cold_Zero]

Too bad you are not here this weekend. The MOTOGP is this weekend. I may have the chance to go Sunday if Ron has an extra ticket. Ron is my buddy who always goes to the Indy500, Brick Yard and the USGP.bud

[Jimefam]

Just curious but why do you say his "fundraising efforts have hit some snags recently." I believe the last fundraising report released was july and he had like 47 million which has like 20 million more than mccain. I might be wrong as I haven't seen the release of any new figures but maybe i missed them. He also claimed to have raised 10 million the day after the palin speech i think. Seems ok to me, even by gop estimates he should have 100 million more to spend then mccain when its all said and done.

[Cold_Zero]

Let's see:BackgroundThe last Democratic Presidential Candidate to carry Indiana was LB Johnson in 1964. Since the founding of the Republican Party only 8 Democrats have won Indiana in a Presidential Race. 1964- Johnson1936- FDR1932- FDR1912- Wilson1892- Cleveland (which is interesting because the Republican candidate was Benjamin Harrison who is from Indiana.)1884- Cleveland1876- Hayes1856- Buchannan

Indiana went for Hillary in the 2008 Primaries by 1.12%.

Currently the RPC poll shows McCain with a lead over Obama 48% to 43.3%.

CurrentObama has consistently run 3 or more campaign ads at a time in Indiana

He has visited the state multiple times after the Indiana Primary, the last being in Terre Haute.

Michelle Obama is currently meeting in Fishers Indiana today for a Woman's Economic Conference.

Obama has several Campaign Headquarters with one located in Fishers, Indiana. Fishers a city in Hamilton County which is one of the most staunchly Republican counties in the US.

OutlookI think that Obama will do well in the North West (“The Region”) part of the state that is heavily democrat, industrialized and unionized. I think he will play well in the southern part of the state around Evansville and in cities like Anderson, Muncie and Terre Haute that are heavily industrialized and lost a lot of their jobs to outsourcing of jobs.

He will not do well in the doughnut counties around Indianapolis which are pretty much Conservative and Republican.

It shall be interesting to watch to see if Obama can win Indiana.

[Cold_Zero]

Just curious but why do you say his "fundraising efforts have hit some snags recently."

Not sure as I didnt say that..

Hash, care to explain?

[Jimefam]

I always hit reply to the last post sorry. Obviously if you didn't say it I wouldn't be asking you for an answer.

[96Qowner]

Just curious but why do you say his "fundraising efforts have hit some snags recently." I believe the last fundraising report released was july and he had like 47 million which has like 20 million more than mccain. I might be wrong as I haven't seen the release of any new figures but maybe i missed them. He also claimed to have raised 10 million the day after the palin speech i think. Seems ok to me, even by gop estimates he should have 100 million more to spend then mccain when its all said and done.

Took me 2 minutes to find it, dated Sep 10th:

Now, it looks like this other great strength in fundraising is turning into a major weakness. The New York Times reports that the Obama campaign is describing recent fundraising efforts as “extremely anemic” and looks to fall far short of its goal of raising $450 million between the campaign and the DNC.

http://article.nationalreview....RhM2Q=

[Cold_Zero]

I always hit reply to the last post sorry. Obviously if you didn't say it I wouldn't be asking you for an answer.

Well, some people use the title line to tell who the comments are being addressed to, especially when there is not quotation.bud

[Jimefam]

interesting. if he falls too short of his stated goal they will be about even and that will really put a burden on him.

[Jimefam]

I guess he will be alright.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...ugust/

[HashiriyaS14]

Just curious but why do you say his "fundraising efforts have hit some snags recently."

Obama will have to raise $100 million per month to be "on target" to where he wanted to be for general election funding.

This will almost certainly not happen. Granted, he just raised $66 million in August, which is a record and is amazing, he beat McCain by a considerable margin, but he won't be able to contest as many states as he originally planned.

That might be OK though, as it looks like he doesn't have a chance in certain states and so he might only have to be contesting 12 or 15 states instead of 22. He has full-time staff in Texas still, he needs to get those cats to Virginia or COLORADO.

I am now 100% convinced that if Obama takes Colorado, he will take the election. I think he can do it, much easier than VA.

[96Qowner]

I read about the 66 million this morning, and was also startled to hear that the campaign therefore has 77 million on hand, meaning all it had left was 10 million. They've raised 440 million so far. That means they've spent 363 million. They expect to be able to raise another 100 million, giving them 300 million more to spend including the 200 million from the DNC = 663 million.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09...itics

[Cold_Zero]

I went to Fiesta Indianapolis which was in conjunction with a PBS Kids event. The candidates at the event where:1. Mitch Daniels (Republican Incumbent Governor) who gave his speech in Spanish. It was a bit shaky but he pulled it off and did a good job.2. Andre Carson (Democrat Incumbent Indiana 7th Congressional District) he blew right by Caroline and I and didn't even say "Hi." See if we vote you.3. Gabrielle Campo (Republican Nominee for Indiana 7th Congressional District) was a very gracious person since I am a bit long winded and can talk anyone's ear off. We discussed the (broken) role of government, Education and the issues that face our Congressional District.

There were a lot of "Latinos for Obama" volunteers who were only worried about if you were registered to vote. No one asked me who I was voting for or even try to pitch the Obama-Biden Campaign. I guess when you have Rock Star Status, people seek you out instead of seeking the people out.bud

[Cold_Zero]

I heard that the Big Ten Battleground Poll was released this week and apparently Indiana is within the margin of error:Obama 43%McCain 47%Margin of Error +/- 4%

http://www.bigtenpoll.org/results0809/indiana.html

It also appears that Iowa and Pennsylvania are toss ups. Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ohio are close. The only real blow out is Illinois which is to be expected.bud

[Jesda]

He has full-time staff in Texas still, he needs to get those cats to Virginia or COLORADO.

I am now 100% convinced that if Obama takes Colorado, he will take the election. I think he can do it, much easier than VA.

I agree.

[Cold_Zero]

Heard a local Republican head on the radio indicate that:1. Even though Obama has 30 offices in Indiana and is currently running ads, it is not enough to counter the 50 some full time Republican offices in Indiana. Apparently the Democrats in certain areas of the state do not have offices, thus why Obama had to open so many offices (example Hamilton County and Johnson County).2. During the past, when Democrats have won and did so handedly in Presidential Elections, they still lost by 5-7%.bud

[Cold_Zero]

http://www.publicpolicypolling...8.pdf

The Public Policy Polling group released its poll of Indiana.Obama 48%McCain 46%

[HashiriyaS14]

I don't expect Obama to win Indiana.

It's polling well below his national numbers, and as the national spread inevitably tightens to 2-4 points between now and the 4th, I expect those states below his average to swing back to McCain (Indiana, North Carolina, MAYBE Nevada and Missouri)

I still expect him to take Colorado and Virginia (and NH and all Kerry states) and thus the White House. I can offer no credible prediction on FL and OH, I think those are true toss-ups at this point.

[Vista Sucks!]

There were a lot of "Latinos for Obama" volunteers who were only worried about if you were registered to vote. No one asked me who I was voting for or even try to pitch the Obama-Biden Campaign. I guess when you have Rock Star Status, people seek you out instead of seeking the people out.bud

Well I think they're not suppose to tell you who to vote for, just ask if you've registered.

[HashiriyaS14]

Well I think they're not suppose to tell you who to vote for, just ask if you've registered.

I'm not sure if ONLY registering perceived supporters is actually illegal or just considered to be in bad taste.

I've registered before (actually back in 2000 while campaigning for W, and then again this year for Obama) and I never mention my own affiliation nor do I wear anything that would reveal my personal politics.

[heliochrome85]

Indiana is leaning democrat this time more than any other time in the last couple of decades. I suspect it will be very close. Gary and Indianapolis are major democratic sites and as a result may be the tipping point. Where i come from (Ft. Wayne) the democrats dont even have a physical office most of the time. The GOP has controlled most of the state for quite some time. I would be very surprised if it went blue this time around. Then again, this election has had alot of surprises...

[audtatious]

Indianapolis has 105% voter registration so who knows how this is going to turn out.

Palin will be down the street from my house on Wednesday, damn shame I'm in Cincy at a customer site or I'd request a hug from her

[heliochrome85]

i believe i could survive a hug from her.