Barry Announces 2012 Bid

[bigbadberry3]

I was surprised not to see a thread on this already. I honestly expect to see him re-elected.

Opinions, predictions, and gentlemen bets are welcome

[heliochrome85]

i called his reelection two years ago. its tough to see how he could fail given the utter lack of credible candadates on the Right. Not even Ron Paul could muster the support needed to win.

[stebo0728]

Its funny, he only has at best half a shot at winning, and he knows it, and thats why he's announced already. Way earlier than even Carters announcement. Unfortunately, its really just too soon to tell the exact outcome, as all the volatile numbers of the day will tell the tale, unemployment, defecit levels, inflation levels, things we can only speculate now, but if it looks as sh*tty then as it does now, he's doomed. If it looks better, he stands a shot.

Of course it also depends on who comes up on the other side, if its another manchurian like McCain, i might not even waste the time to vote, but if its a good candidate, with fiscal ideals and not intangible religious ideas, then Obama might get a sweaty collar.

[heliochrome85]

Its funny, he only has at best half a shot at winning, and he knows it, and thats why he's announced already. Way earlier than even Carters announcement. Unfortunately, its really just too soon to tell the exact outcome, as all the volatile numbers of the day will tell the tale, unemployment, defecit levels, inflation levels, things we can only speculate now, but if it looks as sh*tty then as it does now, he's doomed. If it looks better, he stands a shot.

Of course it also depends on who comes up on the other side, if its another manchurian like McCain, i might not even waste the time to vote, but if its a good candidate, with fiscal ideals and not intangible religious ideas, then Obama might get a sweaty collar.

the comparison to carter is irrelevant. back when carter was president, peopple didnt start campaigning for the office 20 months prior. nor were primaries moved up in the year as they have been doing in years since. AND, despite all the crap that people say about obama, his polls have been holding pretty steady around 45%. despite being the antichrist, he is still pretty popular.

[IBCoupe]

Stebo, George W. Bush announced in May. Clinton announced on April 15. The calendar date is a nonstory, regardless of what the Weekly Standard tries to say.

If anything, announcing now (though it's like he was trying to avoid drawing attention to it, in order to preempt the criticism that he's paying more attention to reelection than governance) would help him. Name me a single non-bats*** Republican candidate who doesn't look like he or she is waffling on whether to run.

[srellim234]

Re: Barry Announces 2012 Bid

Where the h*ll is that yawning smiley?

[szh]

Re: Barry Announces 2012 Bid

Where the h*ll is that yawning smiley?

Maybe this one is appropriate: or this one:



Seriously, I don't remember when any incumbent President did not actually run for re-election for a second term ... do you? Ford does not count - since he was not elected to the office in the first place.

Heck, I would have been surprised if Obama did not announce his bid.

Z

[srellim234]

Lyndon Johnson, 1968.

I listened to his "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president" speech when he made it.

I'm getting old.

[szh]

But, he was sort of a more than one term President, right? He became the sworn-in President in 1963 after Kennedy was assassinated ... and then won an election in 1964, I assume?

If so, he was perhaps doing the right thing - in his mind - when he chose not to run in 1968. This if, of course, pure speculation.

Z

[IBCoupe]

Hm. That's interesting. I wonder what would have happened, legally, if he had run for a second (and a half?) term.

[Bubba1]

Hm. That's interesting. I wonder what would have happened, legally, if he had run for a second (and a half?) term.

Surprised he announced? not at all.

The interesting part will be the infighting among the Republican factions to choose a candidate to run against him.

[srellim234]

I think if the job market starts to recover the Republicans will throw a bone to an unelectable old-timer since it would be a lost cause anyway. Like they did with Bob Dole and John McCain. Why pin the label of "loser" on someone who might stand a chance of winning four years later?

The job market makes this the current President's election to lose, not anyone else's to win.

[R/T Hemi]

Its funny, he only has at best half a shot at winning, and he knows it, and thats why he's announced already. Way earlier than even Carters announcement. Unfortunately, its really just too soon to tell the exact outcome, as all the volatile numbers of the day will tell the tale, unemployment, defecit levels, inflation levels, things we can only speculate now, but if it looks as sh*tty then as it does now, he's doomed. If it looks better, he stands a shot.

Of course it also depends on who comes up on the other side, if its another manchurian like McCain, i might not even waste the time to vote, but if its a good candidate, with fiscal ideals and not intangible religious ideas, then Obama might get a sweaty collar.

You need to consider how Obama won in 2008. Besides the country knee-jerking against what the Republican's had destroyed in the previous 8 years that is. Obama called on a grass roots campaign that heavily involved the internet and the little person. He, and his staff, reached out with email and other personalized messages to millions of those who signed up to support him. It's not too early to start organizing this again.

He's doing the same thing. It's a shoo-in that he'll get the Dem nomination, and it looks pretty good for Nov 2011 victory.

@Z.
Who did not seek a second term question.
LBJ comes to mind. I'm sure there are more.

[szh]

@Z.
Who did not seek a second term question.
LBJ comes to mind./quote]
LBJ was an interesting anomaly yes! He served the final year+ of Kennedy's term before running in 1964. If he had run in 1968 and won, it would have been more than 2 terms (by a small bit )

I'm sure there are more.

Probably. I just could not remember ...

FWIW, I meant in relatively recent times ... and also, just to be clear, I meant, "ran for a second term" even if they lost the election.

Z

[R/T Hemi]

Bill beat poppa Bush in 1992.

[szh]

Bill beat poppa Bush in 1992.

Yup.

Z