Advanced Obamanomics

[audtatious]

Dude, Telco is from New Jersey which means we probably ARE from a different planet than he is

[smockers83]

Yeah, the Dow went down 245 points a few days ago. I don't see people rushing out put their life savings in the stock market now...The dow as of 7/12/08Last 6 Months, -12.62%. Last 12 Months, -17.19%.

It goes from 14160 to 11600 in a the last year and a one day climb is good news? That's a loss of over 2500 points. The trend is still falling.

Again, you're comparing to peaks. If you want to look at trends, spread your time horizon out to 5 and 10 years and tell me what you see. Or even start with 1990. You'll see the fall of 2002 to be just below trend as is today and you'll see the peaks.

Sorry ish, I wasn't saying you were comparing to peaks, I was just saying general.

[smockers83]

Are we on the same planet?

Yes, we are. The question is are you on the same planet as everyone else?

[peetar]

Uh oh, it seems the timing just isn't right for the lefty extremists.

Here is todays news.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080828/economy.html

So much for the sky falling and Joe Bidens comments about how bad off the economy is. Let's say it together: THERE IS NO RECESSION.I know that makes some of you sad but you seriously need to look at your thinking when you NEED the economy to be bad for your political views to take root. How sick is that?

[smockers83]

So much for the sky falling and Joe Bidens comments about how bad off the economy is. Let's say it together: THERE IS NO RECESSION.I know that makes some of you sad but you seriously need to look at your thinking when you NEED the economy to be bad for your political views to take root. How sick is that?

THERE IS NO RECESSION.

You're pretty much on the ball there. There are a few things that are worrisome about the economy though that some people are just so worried about that they think we're in recession, hence the 16-year low or whatever consumer confidence.

The few things that are worrisome. Growth and income. We have been growing, there is no question. However, the benefits of growth aren't being realized to everyone. They are only being realized by the already rich. In 2007, median salary fell. Income hasn't really grown for everyone but the rich, and in some cases it has fallen. With the vast majority of consumers struggling with this, that presents a huge issue with the economy. Another thing that is worrisome is the income gap. The income gap is nearing or could be at all-time highs seen back in the 1920s or whenever it was before the Depression. The income gap needs to be narrowed, otherwise we continue to live in a dual economy, which isn't a too good of a situation. Energy prices. Energy prices affect everything we do, it affects eating, sleeping, driving, reading, everything. This is where most of the consumer confidence is lost, IMO, as gas prices and the CCI seem to be relatively inversely related right now. Mortgage situation. The mortgage situation is large, but affecting only maybe 2% of the population (I think, I've only done rough calculations). Its large in that its eliminating people's wealth and its causing a lot of funds to be diverted to back the industry. It's also caused liquidity to fall.

[96Qowner]

Growth and income. We have been growing, there is no question. However, the benefits of growth aren't being realized to everyone. They are only being realized by the already rich. In 2007, median salary fell. Income hasn't really grown for everyone but the rich, and in some cases it has fallen.

I wasn't so sure about all that, so I went looking and found this about 2007:

New York - From the perspective of their pocketbook, Americans had a good solid year last year.

The standard of living rose and the middle class grew while the number of wealthy actually shrank somewhat compared to 2006. At the same time, the official poverty rate was basically unchanged. ...

... the Census Bureau's numbers indicate that the gap between the middle class and the wealthy has shrunk. In 2007, the top 5 percent of wage-earners garnered 21.2 percent of all income compared to 22.3 percent in 2006. At the same time the middle class saw its share increase from 14.5 percent to 14.8 percent in 2007. "That's a relatively big change in these numbers," says Zandi.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/....html

It also says overall incomes, while they grew 1.3 percent from 2006, were only on par with the high water mark set in 1999, once adjusted for inflation..

Dunno, statistics get really esoteric. "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics."

[ishkabibble]

THERE IS NO RECESSION.

There isn't. I feel that a lot of people are experiencing a "personal recession" right now (due to less housing equity, slow wage growth, gas and price inflation, etc.), so they are quick to apply their situation to the broader economy. Then the media and politicians cater to their audience.

[smockers83]

Interesting info. I just saw a presentation claiming median salary fell 0.5% from 2006 to 2007. I'll have to start doing some research on that one.

[AZhitman]

There isn't. I feel that a lot of people are experiencing a "personal recession" right now (due to less housing equity, slow wage growth, gas and price inflation, etc.), so they are quick to apply their situation to the broader economy. Then the media and politicians cater to their audience.

So now what do we do about the guy who wants to change the definition of recession so his party can take the White House?

ish, meet Bob. Bob, meet ish. Have fun.

[ishkabibble]

Not vote for him? That's what I'm doing.

Thank god for third parties...

[peetar]

We have pretty much completely destroyed the myths right here and now that we are in a recession and that the economy isn't relatively healthy.

So, what do we get in rebuttal? A bunch of vapid, esoteric drivel about how "the rich" are the only ones benefitting.

So, then we disprove that and what do we get as a rebuttal. Nothing AT ALL of substance.

There isn't a member her I reckon that isn't doing better than they were 8 years ago financially and yet everyone I talk to about the economy who is a lefty says things like: "yeah but, but there are people out there that are not doing as well as I am" and other such VAGUERIES.

I'm tired of hearing it. It is nonsense.The people who have Bush derangement syndrome and the media are invested in the idea that virtually everything in America is going downhill and we are doomed. THAT, my friends is why you are reading what you are reading here.

There is no truth in it and I will continue to point this stark fact out. Mainly because the economic numbers don't lie. We are doing just fine and are still growing. Which is the opposite of a recession by definition.

The headline will read "recession on hold" as if it HAS to happen. Google that term and you will see exactly what I mean.

Bush continues on average to beat Clinton on unemployment:

Also, poverty is lower than in the Clinton years:The average poverty rate for all Americans for the first seven years of the Reagan terms was 14.2%. For the first seven years of Bill Clinton’s terms, it was 13.6%. Under George Bush, the average poverty rate for 2001-2007 is 12.4%.

So yeah, I would call that pretty much getting OW3D in this debate.

[smockers83]

So, what do we get in rebuttal? A bunch of vapid, esoteric drivel about how "the rich" are the only ones benefitting.

So, then we disprove that and what do we get as a rebuttal. Nothing AT ALL of substance.

Just out of curiosity, who disproved that? You seem to come from an economic background. I have yet to meet someone from an economic background that doesn't think the income gap is large and near historic levels. There are some out there, no doubt, but those that say its not there are evidence of the dual economy we live in.

[rn79870]

...There is no truth in it and I will continue to point this stark fact out. Mainly because the economic numbers don't lie. We are doing just fine and are still growing. Which is the opposite of a recession by definition....

Let's forward a copy of that to the auto workers who are getting a month off without pay because people won't buy cars now. I don't suppose they feel we are doing just fine and still growing. Sure, tell me it's all about not building the right cars, but before doing that, look at the sales figures, ALL but Mini is reporting lower sales, with many reporting losses.Even Honda is down.

Consumer's lack confidence in the economy and they have stopped spending. They don't care if you call it a recession or a birthday party, it's the same thing to them. Of course, this isn't noticed by those who don't have their finger on the pulse of the economy, like those with 7 houses.

[peetar]

OMG there is a sector of the economy that isn't doing well. We should let bad sectors fail. Speaking of failure....

You have FAILED, quite miserably, to refute any of my points thus far.

For example, I could point to Air America as an economic failure...but it wouldn't prove that THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE is bad. It would only prove that they can't compete in the free market of ideas.

Somehow, you have managed to masterfully prove my point about a conspicuous lack of both logic and fact on the side of the left as it applies to thier fundamental understanding of macro-economics.

Thank you.

[smockers83]

Still waiting to find out who disproved what I said or if someone can in fact disprove what I said. There was even a report on it not too long ago in how this is the first time in history the country has seen this kind of growth and hardly anyone has benefited from it.

[smockers83]

Also, the reason for the large growth seen in the 2nd quarter has a lot to do with the rebate checks. Disposable income is falling yet people are still spending more, some how. They necessarily aren't buying more, they're spending more due to inflation. Correcting for inflation, spending has actually fallen.

And employment statistics are lagging statistics, so to use those to talk about the economy today doesn't do anything to justify an argument, except for one about 2 years ago.

[AZhitman]

Let's forward a copy of that to the auto workers who are getting a month off without pay because people won't buy cars now.

Boo hoo.

Shall we bail out the assembly line workers at Smith-Corona Typewriters as well?

Be right back, gotta make a trade - I'm investing in Kleenex...

[smockers83]

Who cares about the auto workers, actually more generally, who cares about the UAW? Get those workers out of the UAW and they'll be able to keep their jobs, for less pay, but that's better than no job at all. They'll be given fair market pay, may not seem fair to them, but they've been over paid for who knows how many years now. But the ones who have lost jobs in the auto industry would be more than happy to go back right now, even if it meant less pay. Then MI could be back on the rise with more jobs, no longer be at the top of unemployment, and the Big 3 would have less costs due to un-unionized workers. Then the Big 3 could start recovering, focusing more funds on engineering, and turn in some profits and tax revenues for my state. Then the state would come out of its budget crisis. I'm all up for that.

[ishkabibble]

Homebuying is up over last month.

Gas has fallen almost a buck.

Unemployment is dropping.

The Dow is climbing.

Remind me why we need The Great Pumpkin to come rescue the economy?

[Jesda]

Let me explain how this goes:

1. I work.2. Someone takes what I earn and spends it.

BRILLIANT PLAN!

/not a McCain endorsement

[ishkabibble]

Well, you would just spend it on bacon and unreliable cars anyway.

[Jesda]

Well, you would just spend it on bacon and unreliable cars anyway.

I put pig farm workers' kids through school!

[ishkabibble]

Homebuying is up over last month.

Gas has fallen almost a buck.

Unemployment is dropping.

The Dow is climbing.

We don't have anything to worry about, though. According to the "I Mis-spoke Express", "the fundamentals of the American worker" are strong!

[96Qowner]

Yep, and most economists agree.

[ishkabibble]

Agree about what?

[Urabus GodofTraction]

Yep, and most economists agree.

Herding cats and getting economists to agree: two of the most difficult things to do on the planet.

[srellim234]

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday did not happen today. ___Garrison Keillor