A good analysis of why Obama's campaign is losing steam

[szh]

A good analysis of why Obama's campaign is losing steam: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26640489/.

"Obama's woes have nothing to do with 'lipstick'".By Howard Fineman, who has travelled with Obama "on the trail", and had a lot to say on the topic.

The issues that he raises (excerpts here, my emphasis ... see the article for more details):

Declining to take federal financing for the general election

Obama stands accused of flip-flopping on the matter, saying in 2007 that he’d accept those funds and the cash limits that come along with it. In relying solely on private money, Obama appears to have ceded some higher ground to McCain, who, with his public funding, appears slightly more immune to interest groups.

Declining McCain’s offer to hold ten town hall debates

When Obama was leading the race in leaps and bounds, he blew off this GOP proposal. Too bad. Had Obama locked in that deal, he would now be able to confront McCain face-to-face ...

Failing to go all the way with the Clintons

Yes, I know, Bill and Hillary got prime speaking roles in Denver. And yes, I know, the Clintons are difficult to deal with and probably hope Obama fails.

The 22-state strategy

For months, the Obama campaign invested advertising time and organizing money in an impressive array of red states that haven’t been on the Democrats’ radar in recent elections. This made for great press clippings. But, for the most part, it was a waste of assets.

Failing to state a sweeping, but concrete, policy idea

It is not enough to be for change – everybody is, or is trying to be. To make it stick, Obama needed, and needs, to put forth an easy-to-grasp grand proposal, one that would encapsulate his central message.

But he has yet to package that, or anything else, in an easy-to-grasp, hard-number plan for voters. Instead, he’s got more of a laundry list than an actual rallying cry.

Remaining trapped in professor-observer speak

When you listen to Obama, it sometimes feels like you’re hearing a smart but distant analysis of the political scene. He sounds like a writer or teacher, but not the leader of a political crusade. Obama has been far too “meta” – a detached commentator on his own situation and his own country. Voters want an action plan, not an exegesis.

Failing to attack McCain early

Obama’s natural inclination to be seen as the nice guy (one who lets others do the knifing) lead to an unfortunate result. It gave two free months for McCain to build up a head of steam as a war hero ...

But if I were an Obama partisan I would be worried that his mistakes have a common thread - pride.

Obama seems to want to do things on his own, and on his own terms. Obama has his own crowd – from Chicago, from Harvard, and from a new cadre of wealthy, Ivy-educated movers and shakers.

“He’s an arrogant S.O.B.,” one of the latter told me today. “He wants to do it his way, and his way alone.” But politics doesn’t work that way. And has Obama should know, or is about to find out, that everyone needs a little help.

Back to my opinions and comments now ...

So, what is the bottom line? It seems to me that the hoopla and furor and some underhanded tactics that Obama used to get ahead of Hillary Clinton are finally waning.

The fact is people are seeing through the rhetoric and lack of clear strategy. No meat on them bones. This recognition will continue till the elections in November.

Note that I am not happy about McCain's plans and statements (i.e., lack of) here either. However, at least, he is not counting on fuzzy rhetoric to carry the day. He is much better suited to be the POTUS.

Z

NOTE: This is NOT a thread about Gov. Palin or Senator Biden or families, Troopergate, etc. Please keep those issues out of this thread!

I'd like for this to be a discussion of what each campaign has done, or is doing, wrong.

Real issues, real commentary, real discussion ... not innuendo and unproven allegations of any kind, please!

[rn79870]

Ssince this is closely realted to another thread, and since it is Hash's wishes that like threads be combined, I'll combine it.

[szh]

Ssince this is closely realted to another thread, and since it is Hash's wishes that like threads be combined, I'll combine it.

Actually, they are quite different. This has to do with issues related to the campaign ... not the team.

Please keep them separate.

Thanks,

Z

[Sentientbydesign]

I think these are all valid points that make me leary of voting for him. One of the few areas that Hillary faltered. I got the impression that she expressed her opinion and intentions much more clearly than Obama has. The only problem (similiar to Obama's) is that many of things she said weren't what people wanted to hear.

[rn79870]

Actually, I can't find the other thread I was planning to merge it with now. (96's thread). Hash said he wants similar threads merged and I'm going to give his ideas every chance to work.

[wingFeather]

+1 Excellent post, and thank you for providing a link so I hear it from the horse's mouth.

McCain, who, with his public funding, appears slightly more immune to interest groups.

Agreed. Where is Obama's money coming from?

had Obama locked in that deal, he would now be able to confront McCain face-to-face

Obama turned down the town hall meetings because he knew he would lose.

Failing to state a sweeping, but concrete, policy idea

This is the biggest failure of Obama. He won't speak in specifics... and when he does, he ends up changing his mind to suit the polls. To paraphrase an infamous car movie, "What does Obama plan on racing with? Hopes and dreams?"

[szh]

One of the few areas that Hillary faltered. I got the impression that she expressed her opinion and intentions much more clearly than Obama has. The only problem (similiar to Obama's) is that many of things she said weren't what people wanted to hear.

I agree with your post here ... even though I do not like Hillary, she had more substance than Obama in the earlier campaign.

Z

[szh]

Hash said he wants similar threads merged and I'm going to give his ideas every chance to work.

Similar ones, yes. But this has a different purpose really.

I am trying to be very careful not to start new "similar" threads, so I am glad you did not merge this into the 96Qowner's thread.

Thanks,

Z

[szh]

Agreed. Where is Obama's money coming from?

The details for both Obama and McCain (and others) are available. Although nobody has fully (i.e., 100%) disclosed all sources yet - will take time to get it all in, I guess:

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/

Click on each candidate ... then the links on that page (on the left hand side) give you more detail.

Z

[HashiriyaS14]

The fundraising and "22 state strategy" are legitimate points indeed.

He needs to raise $100 million a month between now and November, I'm not sure that's going to happen.

He currently has full-time paid staffers in TEXAS. WHY?!?! Move them to VA, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, or Michigan!

I don't think that declining the "town hall meetings" really hurt him. 10 meetings is too many, big televised debates are better.

I definitely agree that he should've picked Hillarious as his VP. It would have locked in the general election, IMO.

[96Qowner]

Interesting analysis, but I think it's simpler than that.

Obama, frankly, HAD to decline the federal financing. He needs the money advantage to keep promoting himself. I doubt many people turned away from him because of it.

Not sure about the town hall meetings. I think Obama is at a disadvantage in that format. It's probably better to meet McCain in the 3 scheduled debates, since Obama can speechify there and not have to think on his feet.

Quote »Clintons are difficult to deal with and probably hope Obama fails.[/quote]Yeah, no-win proposition there.

22-State strategy? What the heck is he gonna do with all that money? Might as well spread it all around. If he spent it all in one place, people would get really sick of seeing his mug.

I agree with the professor-speak and the undefined unified policy hook. That's the trouble with slogans like Change and Hope. Sooner or later, people want details.

Obama has been attacking McCain for a year now. It's just that Bush=McCain is patently false. Eventually people figure it out.

No, I think what we're seeing right now is a cult figure being replaced by a new, fresh cult figure. Obama is starting to look very "yesterday". It doesn't help that he looks dead-tired, too. Sarah came out of nowhere and immediately inspired 10% of all White females to change their minds ... so far. It was like a brick upside the head to the Obama campaign. They're stunned and wobbly, and have made several successive mistakes in trying to deal with it, most of them caused by underestimating Sarah's potential appeal. It surprised all of us - everyone.

The way I see it, the Obama campaign has lost something they'll never get back. Once a cult figure is overshadowed by a new one, it's very hard to get back into the spotlight. Everyone says "oh yeah, uh huh, him, I remember him". As partisan as I sound, I think everyone should at least consider it with an open mind. Obama is in the process of becoming yesterday's news. We've gushed over him as much as we can. We'll see how they handle it. So far, VERY badly.

[HashiriyaS14]

Obama has been attacking McCain for a year now. It's just that Bush=McCain is patently false.

Yes and no.

Obviously, John McCain is a much more formidable guy than GW. As people, as characters, they are VERY different.

That said, from a POLICY standpoint, they are incredibly similar. Obama is no less similar to his party line, but his party is also more popular than the GOP is right now.

[AZhitman]

No, I think what we're seeing right now is a cult figure being replaced by a new, fresh cult figure. Obama is starting to look very "yesterday". It doesn't help that he looks dead-tired, too. Sarah came out of nowhere and immediately inspired 10% of all White females to change their minds ... so far. It was like a brick upside the head to the Obama campaign. They're stunned and wobbly, and have made several successive mistakes in trying to deal with it, most of them caused by underestimating Sarah's potential appeal. It surprised all of us - everyone.

The way I see it, the Obama campaign has lost something they'll never get back. Once a cult figure is overshadowed by a new one, it's very hard to get back into the spotlight. Everyone says "oh yeah, uh huh, him, I remember him". As partisan as I sound, I think everyone should at least consider it with an open mind. Obama is in the process of becoming yesterday's news. We've gushed over him as much as we can. We'll see how they handle it. So far, VERY badly.

All VERY accurate - So much so that even if he were my candidate of choice, I'd agree. I just overheard a conversation in our cafeteria wherein a lady said: "...the Obama campaign has lost something they'll never get back."

So to see you type those exact words is a little eerie.

She went on to say something about the order or the conventions, and ask "who goes first", whereafter a guy at the table offered that the party in power goes last (don't know if that's accurate or not)....

Same table, some granola-looking lady looked very uncomfortable and out of the blue scoffed, "I hate republicans" while making the "who farted" face...

I grinned and ate my turkey sammich.