I removed my front shaft, took it for a drive, no vibration. So I was thinking transfer case or shaft. I could rule out front end, differential, rear shaft, etc.
I spun the transfer case output by hand and, even though I did hear some rolling noise, I could not feel any dead spots in the bearings.
I examined the shaft closely and noticed uneven wear in the greased portion, where one half meets the other.
I decided to install the shaft turned 180 degrees (shaft differential side to transfer case) and what do you know? No vibration.
My only questions are whether it's OK to drive with the shaft backwards, and whether I should expect the vibration to return.