srellim234 wrote:Sorry, telco, but citing stories from sources such as Vox have all the credibility of citing stories from FoxNews. No credibility at all.

How about The New York Times

Early Voting Could Hand Election to Hillary Clinton Well Before Nov. 8

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/us/po ... -well&_r=0

"The first wave of data from states like Florida and North Carolina shows preliminary signs that Mrs. Clinton was building a slight edge even before the revelation that Donald J. Trump had bragged about sexual assault roiled the race.

Democrats are requesting more absentee ballots in Florida than they were at this point in 2012, with increases of 50 percent in the heavily Hispanic areas around Miami and Orlando. In North Carolina, where Mitt Romney built enough of a lead in early voting four years ago to edge out a victory over President Obama, Democrats are requesting mail-in ballots in larger numbers than in 2012, while Republicans’ participation is declining."

Hillary is almost there.

Telcoman

No worry Telcoman.

the PEC now shows a random drift for Clinton Nov. win probability:
random drift 95%,
Bayesian 97% -
Pretty impressive odds for the blue team.

Basically, this is a done deal. As long as Hillary doesn't sell US nuclear weapons to ISIS, she's got this.

The Orange Groper is already setting up his followers for a rigged vote with a rigged result from a rigged system in a rigged election cycle. Wait and see how many recounts he demands. Watch people, like Pence, run from him like a ***** ape.

The good news is this is great on so many levels. The Republican party is dead. There is more infighting in that party than there is in Aleppo. The Republican's will never recover from this. Trump's behavior is so far beyond the pail that even the down ticket contests are skewing to the Democrats. Those who still support him had better get away from him before he implodes and embarrasses them further.

Donald is politically dead. So, unfortunately, is the Republican party.

My prediction. I'll stand by this; Clinton will take Florida and North Carolina. The election will be called, in her favor, by 11:30 PM Eastern time on 11/08-2016.
Without Florida and North Carolina, there's no possible way for Trump to win. Even with those 2 states, he still has a very uphill battle. Florida is a 76% Clinton probability right now.

NOT A SINGLE MAJOR NEWSPAPER has endorsed Trump. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Kellyanne Conway will still spins Trump's victory as inevitable, and his followers will eat it up. Cognitive disconnect.

I don't think the GOP is dead quite yet. The Democrats are going to have to motivate a very high turnout or complacency will cost them the Congress. If that happens then a Republican Congress will simply block anything Clinton tries do and then try to blame her when nothing gets accomplished by the next presidential election. Heck, Mitch McConnnell will say it's his mission to make her a one-term President, Chuck Grassley will claim she'a a lame duck before she's even sworn in and they'll block every judicial pick she makes.

With the Republicans having control of most of the gerrymandering in the states it's going to be critical for the Democrats to get high turnouts in state elections in 2018 and 2020 as well.

In my mind the best thing that could happen at this point would be for the Democrats to get that high turnout, let the radical right wing of the GOP take the party and those who have been labeled RINOs move to a moderate party like one of the Constitution Parties or the Modern Whigs. If enough of them move to a moderate party we might see some moderate Democrats meet them there and leave the Democratic Party to the radical left progressives.

One can only hope......

Hillary is almost there.

Clinton makes new push to win the House

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... li=BBnb7Kz

It is not only the white house but perhaps the entire congress.

"The Democrats' campaign arm has launched a new coordinated effort with Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign that will shift millions of dollars to traditionally red states, where party leaders are hoping to upset House GOP incumbents."

The entire republican party has become so toxic by nominating Trump they may lose everything.

Telcoman

P-GfK Poll: Clinton appears on cusp of commanding victory

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ ... li=BBnbcA1


She is almost there

Telcoman

I give more credence to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com; his update within the last hour puts Clinton's chances of winning at 85.4%, up .4% since yesterday. He does point out that she's not totally out of the woods yet.

Trump's gains in some polls appear to be Republicans coming home to roost and some "undecideds" turning his way but they are not from a demographic that would have ever been enough to turn the election. Clinton has picked up support, too, not just from Democratic voters coming home but also some undecideds. If she and Trump continue to split those votes he's finished.

I think the biggest question right now is whether or not her victory (assuming she wins) is large enough to affect downballots and swing one or both houses of Congress. I think the Democrats might turn the Senate but I don't think they have any realistic chance of turning the House. Either way I think the Republicans are about to turn on Paul Ryan bigtime.

srellim234 wrote:I give more credence to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com; his update within the last hour puts Clinton's chances of winning at 85.4%, up .4% since yesterday. He does point out that she's not totally out of the woods yet.

Trump's gains in some polls appear to be Republicans coming home to roost and some "undecideds" turning his way but they are not from a demographic that would have ever been enough to turn the election. Clinton has picked up support, too, not just from Democratic voters coming home but also some undecideds. If she and Trump continue to split those votes he's finished.

I think the biggest question right now is whether or not her victory (assuming she wins) is large enough to affect downballots and swing one or both houses of Congress. I think the Democrats might turn the Senate but I don't think they have any realistic chance of turning the House. Either way I think the Republicans are about to turn on Paul Ryan bigtime.

The republican down ballot candidates are mostly all in trouble.

Trump is now in trouble with republican party leaders over his assertion that his supporters violate the republican consent decree

Why The RNC Wants Nothing To Do With Trump’s Poll Watcher Call To Arms

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/why-the ... tcher-talk


Telcoman

Those down ballot candidates are not mostly all in trouble. Historically even a large win by the presidential candidate translates into only modest gains for the party and right now this year is no different. Most of what I've seen projects the Democrats picking up 15 to 25 seats which is not enough to gain a House majority.

Just overnight things very slight wavered against the Democrats, another demonstration that these daily polls are meaningless as reliable indicators of the election. Multiple indicators from multiple sources are needed for that. That's why I tend to rely on people who analyze a large variety of sources, places like fivethirtyeight.com and electionprojection.com

This late in the election season there are very few people who will be influenced to actually change a vote from Republican to Democrat or vice versa. Most of those who belong to a party and say they are undecided are likely to "come home" to their party in those down ballot races in these last few days. I think a lot of anti-Trump Republicans are voting Clinton in the top slot but Republican in all other races. She doesn't have a broad appeal that might provide any coattails to ride on.