A "Case" in point on "COVID deaths"

A place for intelligent and well-thought-out discussion involving politics and associated topics. No nonsense will be tolerated at all.
User avatar
telcoman
Posts: 5763
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:30 am
Car: Tesla 2022 Model Y, 2016 Q70 Bye 2012 G37S 6 MT w Nav 94444 mi bye 2006 Infiniti G35 Sedan 6 MT @171796 mi.
Location: Central NJ

Post

^^^
To be safe everyone should be wearing a mask, practice social distancing, and wash their hands.
It is too bad that there are so many uninformed governors, elected politicians,anti- vaxxers, and uninformed citizens that refuse to follow CDC and Dr. Fauci's advice.
The current rate of vaccinations in the US is over two million per day.




Current US cases 28,895,975
Current US deaths 522,872
Source Johns Hopkins/NBC News


User avatar
VStar650CL
Technical Expert
Posts: 8291
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:25 pm
Car: 2013 Nissan Altima 2.5 SL
2004 Nissan Altima 2.5 S

Post

telcoman wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:53 am
To be safe everyone should be wearing a mask
Sorry son, that's not science. Distancing and handwashing yes. Masks will only protect you from the flu, the evidence is overwhelming.

User avatar
telcoman
Posts: 5763
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:30 am
Car: Tesla 2022 Model Y, 2016 Q70 Bye 2012 G37S 6 MT w Nav 94444 mi bye 2006 Infiniti G35 Sedan 6 MT @171796 mi.
Location: Central NJ

Post

VStar650CL wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:04 am
telcoman wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:53 am
To be safe everyone should be wearing a mask
Sorry son, that's not science. Distancing and handwashing yes. Masks will only protect you from the flu, the evidence is overwhelming.
Sorry son, you are incorrect!

"What you need to know"

" When you wear a mask, you protect others as well as yourself. Masks work best when everyone wears one.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html"

Current US cases 28,898,650
Current US deaths 523,005
Source Johns Hopkins/NBC News

User avatar
VStar650CL
Technical Expert
Posts: 8291
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:25 pm
Car: 2013 Nissan Altima 2.5 SL
2004 Nissan Altima 2.5 S

Post

The recent CDC county-by-county study of mask-mandated counties versus non-mask found a roughly 1% overall difference in case rates. For entirely political reasons, they conclude that 1% is enough to justify keeping the mask industry in business, despite the fact that the difference may not even be statistically significant. They are frankly assuming we're all too stupid to read what's there. Sorry to say, in most cases their assumption is correct. I won't say about whom.

User avatar
telcoman
Posts: 5763
Joined: Sat Jul 08, 2006 11:30 am
Car: Tesla 2022 Model Y, 2016 Q70 Bye 2012 G37S 6 MT w Nav 94444 mi bye 2006 Infiniti G35 Sedan 6 MT @171796 mi.
Location: Central NJ

Post

VStar650CL wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 9:35 am
The recent CDC county-by-county study of mask-mandated counties versus non-mask found a roughly 1% overall difference in case rates.
Can you please provide a link to that study?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Texas, Mississippi, and other non mandated mask wearing states have very high rates of Covid infections.


Current US cases 28,938,762
Current US deaths 524,066
Source Johns Hopkins/NBC News

User avatar
VStar650CL
Technical Expert
Posts: 8291
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:25 pm
Car: 2013 Nissan Altima 2.5 SL
2004 Nissan Altima 2.5 S

Post

telcoman wrote:
Sat Mar 06, 2021 2:06 pm
Can you please provide a link to that study?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Texas, Mississippi, and other non mandated mask wearing states have very high rates of Covid infections.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7010e3.htm

I'll save you the time, here's a quote from it:

During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1) (Figure). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.

Believing propaganda is a choice and not a requirement. There is plenty of verifiable information on the planet for those who want it, but sometimes you need to read the fine print and sometimes you need to analyze the method or source. Extrapolating those figures at the current mortality rates, more people blow their brains out every day as a result of pointless lockdowns than are killed by not wearing a mask. Mask mandates are simply an irrational reaction to a bogeyman, as are lockdowns.

User avatar
VStar650CL
Technical Expert
Posts: 8291
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:25 pm
Car: 2013 Nissan Altima 2.5 SL
2004 Nissan Altima 2.5 S

Post

PS - Yes, I know it's "daily growth rates", except rates are falling everywhere. Statistically, it's undeniable that herd immunity is beginning to take hold, and neither CDC nor Saint Fauci know the reason for that. No one needed to know the reason cigarettes caused cancer, either, it was simply plain in the numbers. I will never quibble with anyone who wants to mask up, but continuing to mandate it at this stage of the pandemic is ludicrous.

User avatar
VStar650CL
Technical Expert
Posts: 8291
Joined: Thu Nov 12, 2020 1:25 pm
Car: 2013 Nissan Altima 2.5 SL
2004 Nissan Altima 2.5 S

Post

Incidentally, I found the unabridged and peer-reviewed copy of the Israeli study in the New England Journal of Medicine:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765

It appears to indirectly answer my question from the other day. Here's a more-readable excerpt from the Jerusalem Post:

In the period from 21 days to 27 days after the first dose – the week after the second dose – the effectiveness of the vaccine increased, becoming 60% effective at preventing confirmed infections, 66% effective at preventing symptomatic cases, 78% effective at preventing hospitalization, 80% effective at preventing severe illness and 84% effective at preventing deaths due to the virus.
Starting seven days after the second dose, the effectiveness of the vaccine improved significantly, preventing 92% of confirmed infections, 94% of symptomatic cases, 87% of hospitalizations and 92% of severe cases. The study did not determine the effectiveness of the second dose in preventing deaths due to the virus
[emphasis mine].

Looking at the actual numbers, it appears from the note in table 2 that they didn't evaluate it because there weren't enough instances of mortality after two shots to provide them a datapoint. They did no evaluations on less than 10 instances. They didn't specify the base numbers, but I suspect my hunch was right -- it was most likely zero. Given that the Moderna version is a similar mRNA vaccine with similar targets, there is little reason to suspect that it will perform differently. Only the J&J vaccine, with a very different structure, is a real question.

The more serious question is why this information isn't being more widely disseminated, but I can only only assume the answer is political. If the risk of death falls to zero and the risk of serious disease to near-zero, then the bogeyman is no longer scary. People who are no longer frightened are far less likely to tolerate abridgement of their liberties, which cannot please any of the "lockdown" politicians. If true, I can't imagine anything sadder.


Return to “Politics Etc.”