What will happen to the values of Japanese classics imported from Japan?

[frapjap]

I've been tossing around the idea of what my next 'fun' car will be in the upcoming year or two and have been somewhat interested in getting back into a 240 or another type of classic Japanese import.
A car like this '90 180sx sporting its original STOCK CA with 31k on it is really interesting to me.
http://japaneseclassics.com/vehicle/nissan-180sx/
The buy-in is ~$10,000.

Or this '90 Supra R or 12k.
http://japaneseclassics.com/vehicle/199 ... -interior/

Or a 3 rotor Cosmo for 14k. (man, that car is hot!)
http://japaneseclassics.com/vehicle/1990-mazda-cosmo-2/

However, I wonder what the value of that car will be in a year or two when it comes time to sell and get into something different. I know that the Jalopnik writer, Doug, imported, drove, and sold his Skyline, but he didn't say for how much more (or less?) than he paid. Maybe he broke even.
But for those cars that aren't top trim Skylines, I've got these questions:

Is it going to plummet like a rock to half of its value?
Will it drop due to a flooded market and lower demand?
Will it have a bad stigma since its an old import with wrong side steering?
Who will insure it?
Is Hagerty or any other collector car insurance going to value the vehicle (or even consider insuring it) at what you paid for it?
Will you actually get the amount back in the event of an accident?

The million dollar question here is if buying a nice import like this is going to be like buying a new car and being the first person to take the massive depreciation hit?

What do you guys think? Any plans yourselves? Any questions I missed?

[Desert Rat]

Buy a driver and enjoy it.

You can't predict the collector car market. Not many Japanese cars are holding up to the test. A few exceptions are 70-72 Z's, 93-97 Supras, and old FJ40s. I think more land cruisers will begin to appreciate, but there's many more much rarer vehicles where there's simply not the demand to drive up prices.

[Bubba1]

A few thoughts. 1. There are plenty of insurance policies that will base their rates on a "stated" value. I'm sure Hagerty offers them. So if you want to insure an 180sx for $25K, they'll happily take your money, but your premium will reflect their risk to pay you $25K, which will be significantly more than insuring it for what it's actually worth.
There are also other potential restrictions if you go the classic car insurance route. Some limit mileage, for example.

2. As far "investing" in one of those cars, the problem isn't so much about their appreciating, they will, but the 800 lb gorilla is how fast they'll apprceciate. I don't see any of those choices, especially the 180sx, from appreciating more quickly than what you'll spend to own it each year. Think about registration/insurance/inspection/repairs/maintenance/storage, etc. You're gonna lose money a lotta money if you view it purely as an investment. But if you're looking for a "fun" classic car you intend to drive and have fun, that's a whole different story. The supra or 180sx are good choices. I question how easy it'll be to get parts for a Cosmo when (not if) something breaks.

As far as they're being worth it, that's subjective. What I consider too much will probably differ from what you consider too much.

[frapjap]

A few thoughts. 1. There are plenty of insurance policies that will base their rates on a "stated" value. I'm sure Hagerty offers them. So if you want to insure an 180sx for $25K, they'll happily take your money, but your premium will reflect their risk to pay you $25K, which will be significantly more than insuring it for what it's actually worth.
There are also other potential restrictions if you go the classic car insurance route. Some limit mileage, for example.

2. As far "investing" in one of those cars, the problem isn't so much about their appreciating, they will, but the 800 lb gorilla is how fast they'll appreciate. I don't see any of those choices, especially the 180sx, from appreciating more quickly than what you'll spend to own it each year. Think about registration/insurance/inspection/repairs/maintenance/storage, etc. You're gonna lose money a lotta money if you view it purely as an investment. But if you're looking for a "fun" classic car you intend to drive and have fun, that's a whole different story. The supra or 180sx are good choices. I question how easy it'll be to get parts for a Cosmo when (not if) something breaks.

As far as they're being worth it, that's subjective. What I consider too much will probably differ from what you consider too much.

I'm not certain that they'll appreciate at all either (though I suppose you could invest in them). The return would certainly take a long while as you pointed out. The stated value doesn't mean much, its the guaranteed value that is realistic- and as you pointed out- expensive if the insurer and owner don't see eye to eye. I'd expect to treat these vehicle much like a classic car- nice day driving and weekends, not daily drivers. Excellent point on that Cosmo repair though.

My thoughts for this thread are on the other side of the fence; rapid depreciation.
My guess is that the new American owner will purchase it for 10k, and the buzz will be gone and the car won't sell for more than 2/3s of the value when they go to offload it or get bored of it. My assumption is that they won't even stay steady in value the way some traditional American classics do, making purchasing your next fun car more expensive.

[Bubba1]

Toyota and Nissan built far too many Supras (that gen) and 180sx's respectively for them to seriously appreciate. That's not to say they won't appreciate at all, they just won't jump in value like a COPO Camaro or Plymouth Superbird. As far as rapid depreciation after buying of a low mileage original RHD 180sx or that gen supra? Oh yeah, it'll likely depreciate at first. But how much of a hit depends on what you do with it, how long you keep it, and most importantly your mindset. If you resist modding it (remember, they're not blazingly fast), and resist putting on a lotta miles, it won't decline in value as much as if you were to mod it or drift it. And if you hold onto it long enough keeping it in the same clean/low mileage condition, you'll eventually be able to sell it for what you paid, or even perhaps a bit more. It'd take several years to accomplish, but bottom line, It's still gonna end up being a money loser even if you sell it for more than you paid once you factor all the costs. That's because they're not true collectibles. Here's where the mindset factors in, If you have the mindset that it's a fun RHD car and not a collectible (like your Miata), then the depreciation really doesn't matter and you just enjoy the cr@p out of it. And when you finally decide to sell it, you get what you get. You're gonna end up losing money if you go thru with it, but don't ignore the value associated with having fun using it. At the end of the day, it's not a rare classic V12 Ferrari. it's an fun sporty coupe. If you want it, get it.

[frapjap]

I definitely agree with you on all of those points and really wanted to be sure I wasn't being crazy for being skeptical. Personally, I think they're selling at too high of a price because of the exclusivity right now. Being the first with something always costs more. Unless you're on Kick Starter or something.

But yeah, my latest style of buying cars is something that I want to stick to from now on. Buying a car at the bottom of its depreciation, saving a few grand, selling it, buying something more expensive, saving, selling, rinse and repeat until the "fun" car is a $20,000-$25,000 vehicle at any given time. The goal is to not be making payments on the toy but still have something enjoyable to get away from the mundane and cheap daily driver.

Buying the fresh off the boat S13 or GTR seems like a great way to take a step backwards for this style of car ownership.

[the converted]

If you are looking for the possibility of it appreciating I would think you would want to look for the rarer car (Cosmo) as opposed to a JDM version of a car that is readily available. That also comes along with the risks of how do you find parts for it when you do need something. I have no idea how many parts would cross over or what you would be the reality of getting something like a windshield into the country.

At the end of the day you would have a car that has already made it into the country and gone through all of the hoops for registration when you go to sell it. I would assume that alone would hold some value to the car because you can show that it's a legal import and registration for the next owner would be a snap in comparison.

One other thing to think of is the impracticality of a RHD car. You'd be amazed how much of a difference it makes for silly things like merging into traffic. It's not a deal breaker, but it definitely can make life more interesting from time to time. If you get one and don't go to a drive through to mess with people I will be very disappointed!