Big Seven automakers: Nissan faces a challenge

[dmuramoto]

OK, so everyone knows that last year was a disaster for the entire auto industry. But the reality is that some car makers made some headway. Subaru, for one. Or take Hyundai/KIA, for instance. Their 0.74M in sales almost eclipsed Nissan's 0.77M take for the United States in 2009. The South Korean company is now the #7 seller of cars in the country, just behind #6 Nissan, who in turn is just behind #5 Chrysler! You can probably guess what other companies are running first through fourth, but this begs the question: is this a permanent change or merely an abberation in a down year?

[spalind]

OK, so everyone knows that last year was a disaster for the entire auto industry. But the reality is that some car makers made some headway. Subaru, for one. Or take Hyundai/KIA, for instance. Their 0.74M in sales almost eclipsed Nissan's 0.77M take for the United States in 2009. The South Korean company is now the #7 seller of cars in the country, just behind #6 Nissan, who in turn is just behind #5 Chrysler! You can probably guess what other companies are running first through fourth, but this begs the question: is this a permanent change or merely an abberation in a down year?

Chrysler is toast...no new product, Fiat product a long way away...bad marketing, bad financing...they make GM look brilliant...I think Nissan will pass Chrysler this year for #5 and be leapfrogged by Kia/Hyundai in '11 (possibly in '10) with Nissan falling back to #6. Ford is strong and with a number of good products, strong branding and good marketing. They are the company to compare oneself too right now. Toyota is faltering--Scion is a waste of energy at this point, Lexus of highly profitable but stale and Toyota is plagued by declining perceptions and lack of passionate products. Honda?? Well, Honda is Honda...steady, conservative, wise...Honda is a rock...never up too much, never down too much...

[dmuramoto]

I actually see Chryler fighting back this year. If the light truck market picks up, the new Ram should help with sales. But Dan is right about new product for the car line; they're sinking fast. With some Fiat product yet to be tested and refined for the North American market and a rapidly aging fleet of sedans, they're sure to slip back.

And I don't have as much faith in Honda as I once did. The Acura line has faded a bit and with only one new model on the horizon (and a tall station wagon at that), I'd hate being an Acura dealer for the next few years! Still, they're in tight with the #4 position and I certainly don't see them moving up, but probably not falling down that much either. I also think that Nissan has a decent chance to overtake Honda in worldwide sales within the next five years.

But Hyundai/KIA are for real and they're here to stay for the long run.